Massachusetts Minutemen 2024 College Football Preview
Posted June 11, 2024
UPDATED JUNE 21 – Season Win Total Analysis
2023 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 5-7
The Minutemen SHOCKED the WORLD in week one with a road win over a very good New Mexico St squad (W 41-30) but things took a MACABRE detour to TURD TOWN as they lost the following seven games in a row. The next victim on the menu was Army as Massachusetts rolled into West Point and handed the Black Knights a shocking defeat. A victory over something called Merrimack gave MEGALOCKS Season Win Total Club a 69 STAR winner but that was all the winning the Minutemen could muster in 2023.
Massachusetts Minutemen 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
UMass wasn’t a complete disaster on offense LY as they finished the season ranked #84 on the ground and #79 thru the air. Starting QB Taisun Phommachanh has decent mobility but needs to do a better job in the THROW GAME (6-6 TD to INT). Backup Ahmad Haston looked ok in limited action LY and had a long TD run in the spring game but he’s still raw and far from a polished passer. There’s a major question mark at RB given the departure of 1,000-yard (!) RB Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams (Michigan St) and the collection of players left on the depth chart is sketchy to say the least. There are a pair of legit weapons for the QBs to utilize in WR Anthony Simpson (792, 13.9, 3 TD) and transfer TE Dominick Mazotti (San Jose St) but there are no proven commodities after those two doods. The OL is less experienced than they were heading into last season but they’ve got decent size. We expect the offense to perform in the same area code as they did in 2023.
DEFENSE
The stop unit was as HEINOUS as people expected LY (#114 total D, #127 run D, #121 pass efficiency D) but there’s reason for a bit of optimism heading into 2024. The Minutemen bring back three of the top-five tacklers and they’ve supplemented the talent level with some promising transfers including DT Tim Grant-Randall (Eastern Michigan), DE Jaylen Hudson (Wake Forest}, and LB Macklin Ayers (Dartmouth). They’re experienced on the back end but our biggest concern with the defense is a lackluster pass rush (19 sacks LY, #116) and note that they haven’t booked 20+ sacks since 2017 (!) (23). If UMass can’t harass the opposing QB it’s going to make things difficult for the secondary.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The stench was PALPABLE last season as the Minutemen finished DEAD LAST in the Phil Steele special teams rankings (#133). They’ll be reloading at PK and introducing new primary return men to try and right the ship.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s a strange setup for the Minutemen as half of their games are unwinnable whilst the other half give them a bit of hope. Four of their first six games are on the road and both of their bye weeks come in the second half of the season. It doesn’t hurt to have two games vs FCS foes (Central Connecticut, Wagner).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Northern Illinois (Oct 5)
This will be the Minutemen’s 4th road game in five weeks so they might be a bit weary at this point. However, we’ve also noted this as a MAC lookahead spot for Northern Illinois, so the best course of action may be to avoid this BAD BOY altogether.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 11
Over 3.5 +110
Under 3.5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
UPDATED JUNE 21
Lean: Under
The Minutemen have basically six “winnable” games and they’ll have to go 4-2 in those games to kill the ‘under’ ticket. We don’t think this will make our list of season win total plays but we’ll keep you posted over the summer!
MEGAmazing Tidbits
If you’re thinking about taking a cold shower to calm yourself down it’s probably because you know that UMass will be joining the MAC in 2025. Yup. MACtion will somehow, someway, get even crazier next season. <grabs popcorn>
The Minutemen haven’t won more than four games in a season since officially joining the FBS in 2012. It’s worth noting that they appeared in three FCS National Championship Games winning the WHOLE SHOOTING MATCH ** back in 1998.
** This is not an endorsement of gun violence. It’s just an expression, Karen.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
It appears as though the folks in Amherst are in for another long season. The good news is that whilst the roster has some legitimate holes and could use additional depth, we expect the Minutemen to be competitive in about half of their games this season. Three or four victories seems like the high-water mark and it might be smart to have one eye on player development ahead of joining the MAC next season.