May MLB update! News and Notes
We’ve reached the quarter pole of the MLB season! Whoa. Let’s take a look at what’s happening in the world of baseball.
American League East
Yes, guy.
This is shaping up to be quite the race over the summer. The Rays are holding on to the division lead and are a well-balanced squad. The Yankees have done a phenomenal job of dealing with an insane number of injuries and STILL finding a way to stay well over .500. The Red Sox started really slow but they are gaining ground quickly. The bats are WHITE HOT and Chris Sale is back to WHO WE THOUGHT HE WAS (really good). The Jays and Orioles are currently playing like HOT GARBAGE.
Our season predictions? Here’s what we recommended for wagers in our previews before the season began………..
Season win totals
Jays under 75.5 (Projected wins per Baseball Prospectus – 71.1)
The Jays will have their moments along the way but we expect more carnage in the summer once they start trading anything that isn’t nailed down.
To win the AL East
Rays (% shot to win division per Baseball Prospectus – 35.8%)
Yankees (% shot to win division per Baseball Prospectus – 44.2%)
We look to be in good shape BUT the Red Saaaaaax will have something to say about it by the time it’s all over. We are worried about their rotation after Sale BUT if you like Baaaastan you can get a decent price on them to take the division as we go to press.
American League Central
Minnesota is off a great start and has a four-game lead in the division. Cleveland has been hit with a big time injury bug at SP (Kluber, Clevinger) and it’s hard to see them adding too much at the trade deadline. The Tigers, White Sox and Royals will all have spurts of promise at some point but those squads should all finish well below the .500 mark. The Twins might just get out to a 7-8 game lead by the All Star break and cruise home. Maybe. <grabs popcorn>
Our season predictions? Here’s what we recommended for wagers in our previews before the season began………..
Season win totals
Twins over 83.5 (Projected wins per Baseball Prospectus – 89.6)
Yes, guy. The Twins look really solid and they should make a move or two at the trade deadline.
Tigers under 68.5 (Projected wins per Baseball Prospectus – 74.1)
Detroit has been scrappy and have enough pitching and just enough potential in the batting order to worry us about winning fewer than 70 games.
American League West
The Astros are opening up like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE as we reach the mid-point of May. They have won 6 straight games, are (+76) in run differential and boast a 16-4 home record. Non of this was unexpected but it’s still fun to watch. The Mariners got off to a hot start but have begun to fade. The Angels are playing better and welcomed the recent return of Ohtani recently. This feels like an Astros RUNAWAY and we find it hard to see a wild card coming out of this division.
Our season predictions? Here’s what we recommended for wagers in our previews before the season began………..
Season win totals
Houston over 96.5 (Projected wins per Baseball Prospectus – 98.6)
There isn’t much margin for error once you get into the high 90s in team totals BUT we feel confident that the best team in baseball (in our view) can finish close to 100 wins.
National League East
This has been a disappointing set of teams at the top of the division. Philadelphia is not getting the starting pitching that we had hoped and Harper has been a no-show. Having said that, they still have a 3.5 game lead. Atlanta is hanging around and still have a very balanced team that could be REALLY dangerous if/when they add some bullpen help. The Mets have been “meh” and not sure they have enough in the rotation and enough proven firepower in the batting order. The Nats have been pure TRASH outside of a few bright spots. Injuries? Please. The Yankees have done just fine. It seems INCONCEIVABLE that this team can win with that manager, but hey, what do we know?
Our season predictions? Here’s what we recommended for wagers in our previews before the season began………..
To win the NL East
Braves (% shot to win division per Baseball Prospectus – 20.9%)
Nationals (% shot to win division per Baseball Prospectus – 7.8%)
Oops. We expected more from the Nats. Maybe they can make a late charge? We still feel pretty good about Atlanta and think they are still good value in the current futures market.
National League Central
Welcome to the new GROUP OF DEATH. Chicago sputtered out of the gate and have been on FIRE for the past month or so. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games, boast a +54 run differential and have a 2.5 game lead at the moment. The Brewers have been up and down, but the down phases correlate surprisingly well to when Yelich was not playing. We still love ourselves some Cardinals but they are in a bad funk. The Pirates just do what they do (win). The Reds are very underrated and not a free square. Should be a fun summer!
Our season predictions? Here’s what we recommended for wagers in our previews before the season began………..
Season win totals
Cubs under 89.5 (Projected wins per Baseball Prospectus – 85.8)
The division is too deep for us to forecast 90+ wins BUT they are playing great baseball right now and the SP is better than we thought.
Pirates over 77.5 (Projected wins per Baseball Prospectus – 79.9)
The Buccos are rolling without their top two SPs. The batting order is lot better with a healthy Marte and Polanco.
To win the NL Central
Cardinals (% shot to win division per Baseball Prospectus – 33.2%)
They are still the favorite (according to BP) to win the division. We would not hesitate to grab some sweet STL action in the futures market if you can find some good prices.
Pirates (% shot to win division per Baseball Prospectus – 6.5%)
We took a small taste and a big price. They can hang around for a while.
National League West
The Dodgers appear to be WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE (really good) and are easily one of the top-3 teams in MLB as we hit the 40-game mark. The division has some depth but it feels like LAD can win this division comfortably if they don’t get nailed with a rash of injuries. The Diamondbacks might be overachieving but they have demonstrated STAYING POWER (unlike Seattle). The Rockies have been really good since the horrible start and the Padres are solid enough to hang around into the late summer.
Our season predictions? Here’s what we recommended for wagers in our previews before the season began………..
Season win totals
Rockies over 84.5 (Projected wins per Baseball Prospectus – 78.3)
We think they can go on a major HEATER at some point but the numbers and stats say otherwise. Argh.
Giants under 73.5 (Projected wins per Baseball Prospectus – 71.9)
These dudes are pretty much trash and think they finish with less than 70 wins, especially once they trade MAD BUM.
To win the NL West
Rockies (% shot to win division per Baseball Prospectus – 2.4%)
Padres (% shot to win division per Baseball Prospectus – 3.8%)
Took a couple of longshots. It doesn’t look too good right now but there is lots of baseball to be played LOL.
AL, NL, World Series picks
To win the AL
Houston, Tampa Bay, Minnesota
This is a nice selection.
To win the NL
Cardinals, Phillies, Nats
Took a stand against the Dodgers. Feel ok.
To win the World Series
Houston
Got them at a nice price and feel like they will be one of the favorites in October.
Thanks for reading and see you in June for another update!!