Hi everyone !
Another fun week in college football. What else is new ? You had your typical Arkansas / Texas A&M THRILLA. Iowa / Penn St was low scoring but intense, yo. And a great finish. TCU dominates (Congrats 899 STAR MEGALOCKS MAX UNIT BOMB STEAMER POWER LOCK club members). NC St OUTRIGHT. YOUR Georgia Bulldogs laying a SPANKING on the JUGGERNAUT Mississippi St Bulldogs. Arizona St SHOCKS the WORLD. What about the Kentucky finish ? PRO TIP for the Wildcats – Make sure you don’t leave WRs completely uncovered on important plays. Twice.
It is critical to mention that our ratings change, fluctuate and PERCOLATE more than a typical set of ratings. We want to able to POUNCE when necessary and not wait multiple weeks for ratings to catch-up to performance. We use numbers as a basic starting point and do not make selections based solely on rankings or power ratings. We just like to have something to start with as we start the handicapping process.
Week 5. The ONLY Top 10 that matters. Last week’s rating in ( ).
- ROLL TIDE (1) (59-0 ? WOWEE WOW)
- Clemson (2) (understandly a bit flat. Then POW)
- Oklahoma (3) (did what they had to do)
- Penn St (4) (STILL think they are the best team in the Big 10)
- Georgia (8) (defense still matters; you know we are high on these guys)
- Washington (6) (run SILENT. run DEEP)
- USC (5) (starting to get a bit concerned. Just a bit)
- Ohio St (9) (can still run the table)
- TCU (-) (2nd best team in Big 12 ?)
- Wisconsin (-) (untested but we like the look)
So close you can smell it…..Virginia Tech, Michigan, Auburn, Miami, Notre Dame
FIRESIDE CHAT with MEGALOCKS
Gather around. Grab your marshmallows. It’s the first 2017 edition of the FIRESIDE CHAT.
Handicapping is truly an art. There are many ways to become a successful college football handicapper but one universal truth (in our mind) is that you need to do a really good job of eliminating “noise”. From time to time over the season we will briefly cover some of the things that you need to pay attention to, but at the same time, not allow it to become THE reason you make a wager.
SHARP FAKE REVERSED VEGAS TRAP LINE MOVES
Do we watch the lines really closely. Yes. Can it get you on a winner or off of a loser ? Yes. Just be careful that line moves to not become SO important that it prevents you from thinking logically. Long-time MEGALOCKS readers know that we have always advocated paying attention to”SHARP” action with a grain of salt. It may not seem possible, but over time, you will notice that for every game that “SHARP TRAP STEAM ACTION” wins another one loses. People spend too much time freaking out over line moves. If you have handicapped a game, and you are confident in your assessment, RELAX and enjoy the game. When SHOULD you pay attention ? A good rule of thumb is when a decent sized underdog crosses below a key number like 3 or 7. Preferably a lesser-known team. If you can tie that sneaky line move with ANOTHER factor (e.g. QB is improving, team is underrated according to your power ratings, etc.) THEN you may have something.
To close this out – Here are some SHARP FAKE REVERSED TRAP LINE MOVES that did not work out on Saturday.
Mississippi St. STEAMED to -2.5. Get buried by Georgia.
Michigan St. STEAMED to -3 based on the CROWD GONNA BE ROCKING and big wins over MAC teams. Get buried by Notre Dame. CONGRATS 999 STAR MEGALOCKS SMOKESHOW CLUB members.
Air Force. Our pals. STEAMED down to the -1 area. Rocky Long does it again for San Diego St vs the option.
UCLA. Late SWEET STEAM ACTION down to -6.5 (based on their great defense ?) and Stanford is still scoring on them whilst we are typing.
Final thought ? There were some big line moves that came through yesterday. No doubt. Just remember – it is just a PART of the handicapping process to watch the line moves. Don’t let it freak you out.
Enjoy week 5 !
MEGA