MEGALOCKS BLOG – The TOP 10 after Week 6 – October 11, 2017
Hi everyone !
Let’s take a look at the MEGALOCKS TOP 10 after week 6.
It is critical to mention that our ratings change, fluctuate and PERCOLATE more than a typical set of ratings. We want to able to POUNCE when necessary and not wait multiple weeks for ratings to catch-up to performance. We use numbers as a basic starting point and do not make selections based solely on rankings or power ratings. We just like to have something to start with as we start the handicapping process.
Week 6. The ONLY Top 10 that matters. Week 4 rating in ( ). (were on hiatus last week)
- ROLL TIDE (1) (schedule looks pretty clear until Auburn game)
- Clemson (2) (well clear of the rest; Nov 4 game at Wolfpack will be fun)
- Georgia (5) (run the ball, play great defense)
- Penn St (4) (still think they are the best team in the Big 10)
- Ohio St (8) (big game with Penn St on Oct 28 – WOW)
- Washington (6) (untested so far but believe they are really good)
- Wisconsin (10) (Georgia north)
- Auburn (-) (gotta take care of bizzness this week at LSU)
- USC (7) (three tough games in a row up next; #2 in PAC 12 by a nose)
- TCU (9) (best team in the Big 12 ?)
So close you can smell it…..Notre Dame, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, Washington St
FIRESIDE CHAT with MEGALOCKS
Gather around. Grab the marshmallows. It’s FIRESIDE CHAT time.
This week we talk about how to adjust your handicapping process as the college football season moves along. As you know, we look at EVERYTHING when handicapping a college football game. Match-ups. Stats. Power ratings. Trends. Line movement. Situational factors. And more. As the season progresses you should start adjusting focus away from certain factors and towards other more important ingredients.
First THIRD of the season
We rely primarily on research done before the season starts. You don’t want to react too much to any one particular outcome. It’s harder to predict how particular offensive / defensive match-ups will unfold since teams are still finding their way. Situational factors can be in play (letdowns, etc.) but a lot of great plays are found playing ON or AGAINST teams identified during the summer research process as being underrated or overrated.
Middle THIRD of the season
Now you can start looking at year-to-date stats with a bit more confidence and also take note of teams that you misread and adjust accordingly. Teams we missed the boat on ? West Virginia (+), Michigan St (+) and Louisville (-) just to name a few. You can also start looking at match-ups a lot more given that many teams have already established their identities. THIS IS THE PHASE WE ARE IN NOW. What else should you think about ? Which teams have already seen their season goals go up in smoke ? Have there been coaching changes ? Are teams playing better after a change at QB was made ? Letdown spots are also more prevalent.
Final THIRD of the season
The dilemma is that you can feel more confident about power ratings and year-to-date stats BUT the point spreads and totals get sharper and value is tougher to find when just looking at “numbers”. This is when motivation and situational factors become extra important. You need to find an edge beyond the stats that is not accounted for properly in the spread or total. We will talk more about this as the season goes along.
And of course – BOWL SEASON is a completely different animal. More on that in December.
CHEERS and enjoy week 7 !
MEGA