College Football Predictions – Memphis Tigers 2020 College Football Preview
August 21, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 12-2
ATS – 7-6-1
That was quite the ride.
The Tigers bagged 12 wins, won the AAC Championship, and made their first ever New Year’s Six bowl. WHOA, NELLIE. They fell to Penn St in the Cotton Bowl (L 53-39) but can still celebrate the best season in program history. What’s next? Former head coach Mike Norvell is off to Florida St and it’ll be up to new (and first time) head coach Ryan Silverfield to keep the Tigers performing at a high-level.
Let’s go!
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
American Athletic Conference – #3
<Note. No divisions this year. One 11-team conference.>
Memphis Tigers 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Tigers moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last season averaging 40.3 PPG (#8 FBS) whilst achieving devastating balance (#39 rushing, #17 passing, #10 passing efficiency). They were also really EXPLOSIVE and led the nation in 40+ yard plays (35) by a wide margin (UCF – 30).
Things look SPICY once again as the Tigers return some of their most important pieces including star QB Brady White who threw for over 4,000 yards LY (33-11 TD to INT). He should have a great senior campaign. RB Kenneth Gainwell is one of the most dangerous weapons in college football as evidenced by his MONSTER 2019 season in which he rushed for over 1,400 yards and 13 TDs (6.3) whilst grabbing 51 receptions (#2). They also return #1 WR Damonte Coxie who caught 76 balls for 1,276 yards at an impressive 16.8 yards a pop (9 TD). The depth has been thinned out at the skill positions but it’s good to know they have proven stars to build around. The offensive line brings back three starters and should be one of the strongest in the AAC.
Any way you slice it this looks like an elite offense.
<Update Aug 31. Star RB K Gainwell has opted out of the 2020 season. That’s a yuuuuge hit for the offense.>
DEFENSE
The defense made strides a season ago and allowed fewer than 30 PPG (26.4) for the first time since 2016. They were #3 in the conference in scoring D and total D and that was good enough to hold serve for the offense and backstop them to a special season. New DC Mike MacIntyre has a lot of experience and has seven returning starters to work with in 2020. The run D was a bit shaky LY (#9 AAC, 188 YPG) but they return a lot of seniors to the DL including DE Joseph Dorceus who led the team in sacks LY (5) and ranked 2nd in TFL (14.5). The LB corps returns a pair of senior starters and the secondary should be the strength of the D with a pair of senior CBs and leading tackler safety Blake Sanchez Jr back in the mix. Memphis tallied 36 sacks LY but lost three of their top-five in that department.
This feels like an average AAC unit that will still have issues defending the run.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This should be an excellent group with most of the key pieces returning in 2020. PK Riley Patterson is coming off a great year in which he nailed 23/25 FG attempts and 65/66 XP tries. Adam Williams is back to take care of punting duties, and Gabriel Rogers returned his only KR for a TD a season ago.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Ten games are on the menu as we approach post time. Their two non-conference foes are Arkansas St (H) and UTSA (A). Both of those games might be tricky to navigate. They draw Cincinnati, UCF, and SMU and two of those games are ON THE HIGHWAY.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UTSA (September 26th)
This road date pops up in an AAC SANDWICH situation (Houston, at SMU) and the Roadrunners will be improved. Not a spot we’ll likely be on the road chalk.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Tigers have won 57 (!) games over the past six years. In the previous six campaigns they only posted 18 (!) victories. Trivia nugget, yo.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
The Tigers look strong on paper once again. The offense will be potent and it’ll be up to the defense to do just enough to help them win the close games. Their special teams are one of the best in the conference. The worry? It’s hard to overlook the coaching change from Mike Norvell to a first time HC and will they be as hungry as Cincinnati and UCF? They’re still a top-tier AAC squad and they’ll be fun to watch!
Want more Memphis football ?
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