Memphis Tigers 2024 College Football Preview
Posted June 26, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 5-6-2
It was a fun ride for Memphis fans as the team posted their first double-digit win total since the Mike Norvell days (2019, 2017) and they finished the campaign with a SHOCK the WORLD moment in the Liberty Bowl by defeating Iowa St. The season was even more impressive when you consider that their only losses came to the two teams that played in the AAC Championship Game, and the Missouri Tigers of the SEC.
Can Memphis take the next step and win all the AAC marbles?
Memphis Tigers 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Tigers SCORED the FOOTBALL on the regular LY (39 PPG, #6 FBS) and they did it in large part thanks the arm of star QB Seth Henigan (67%, 3,883, 32-9 TD to INT). Henigan returns this season as does their devastating WR duo of Roc Taylor (1,083, 15.7, 4 TD) and Demeer Blankumsee (901, 17.0, 7 TD). The yuuuge hole to fill is at RB where Memphis moves on from all-Universe RB Blake Watson who did it on the ground (1,152, 14 TD) and out of the backfield as a receiver LY (53, 480, 3 TD). You can’t replace the unreplaceable but the Tigers have a pair of dangerous RBs looking to fill the void in Sutton Smith and South Carolina transfer Mario Anderson who led the Gamecocks in rushing last year (707, 4.9, 3 TD). The offensive line is CHOCK FULL of experienced upperclassmen and they boast over 120 starts as a unit. The offense is clearly one of the best in the AAC but they’ll need to keep Henigan healthy (backups have zero career attempts). Thankfully for the Tigers, Henigan has been a very durable specimen during his time at Memphis as evidenced by his 10,776 career passing yards (#1 in program history).
DEFENSE
The stop unit was THE WEAKEST LINK on the team last year as the Tigers allowed 29 PPG (#95) and 423 YPG (#114). They did a good job on 3rd downs (#25) but gave up too many yards and achieved limited PENETRATION (23 sacks, #92). There’s some work to be done on this side of the football as Memphis loses seven of its top ten tacklers and will need some players acquired thru the transfer portal to step up BIGLY. DT Patrick Lucas (Indiana) was a nice pickup and the interior of the front has decent size, but we’re not sure the Tigers have an elite pass rusher in the unit. The best news on defense is the return of leading tackler and star LB Chandler Martin (17 TFL)(!) who’ll solidify the middle layer of the defense. The Tigers made one of the more unheralded transfer portal coups when they convinced Tennessee’s (!) leading tackler LB Elijah Herring to join the cause. Memphis ranked a mediocre #97 in pass efficiency defense LY and they’ll rely on a bunch of transfers to solidify the back end. We definitely expect improvement on defense but still worry about the pass rush.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look decent. The Tigers snagged PK Caden Costa from Ole Miss and they still have Tanner Gillis on the roster (10/13 FG LY). Punter Josh Sloan was a good pickup (UTEP) and Memphis retains both primary return men.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Tigers should be able to book three non-conference wins but they’ll have a major test on September 14th when they travel to Tallahassee to battle the Seminoles. The AAC docket is nasty as they have to go ON THE HIGHWAY to battle all the other conference BIG ‘UNS (USF, UTSA, Tulane).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Navy (Sept 21)
This contest comes right after the road game at Florida St and recall that Navy came close to upsetting the APPLE CART last season in Memphis. We’ll almost certainly be avoiding the road chalk in this game.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 26
Over 9 +100
Under 9 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
This team clearly has enough talent to bag more than nine wins but the road schedule is going to be a major hurdle.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Tigers are an eye-popping 56-12 SU at home over the L10Y. They’re 29-24 in true road games and 3-5 in neutral site affairs.
Memphis has won three bowl games in a row and they’ve come by a combined score of 99-46.
Memphis had SEVEN consecutive head coaches post losing records from 1975-2011. And who can forget the Larry Porter debacle (3-21) ? Thankfully, Justin Fuente turned that FROWN UPSIDE DOWN beginning in 2012 and Mike Norvell and Ryan Silverfield have carried on the winning tradition.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
This is an exciting year for Memphis football. They’ve got the most talented roster in the conference and a legitimate shot to make the expanded College Football Playoff. Of course, that means they’ll have to win some tough road games, and that hasn’t been their strong suit in recent times. The Tigers have to play all of their main rivals away from home but we still think they’ll find a way to get to the AAC Championship Game. After that, who knows? In any event, we’ll be cheering for Memphis to have an epic season. Let’s gooooo!