Miami Hurricanes 2016 NCAA Football Preview

MIAMI HURRICANES

Atlantic Coast Conference – Coastal Division

2015 Record – 8-5

ATS – 8-4-1

2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank

Division #2

Conference #5

2015 Recap

What a ride. Gutted out a win over Nebraska in OT. Miracle finish against Duke. Lost to Florida St by only 5 points. Finished the season strong with wins over Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. Could have won their bowl game. Oh, and they suffered the biggest loss in school history (58-0 at home to Clemson) and got pulverized by North Carolina 59-21. They also fired their head coach. And hired Mark Richt. Whew. Catch all that?

2016 Preview

OFFENSE

QB Brad Kaaya should have his best season yet but he will need to depend on a deep group of RBs and experienced offensive line returning all five starters to help shoulder the load. Last season the Hurricanes were ranked 117^th in the NCAA in rushing so there is work to be done. Miami was +11 in turnover margin last season due in large part to how Kaaya took care of the football – only 5 INT last season in almost 400 attempts. The Hurricanes return veteran Stacy Coley to the WR corps but will need another player or two to emerge to make the passing game really click.

DEFENSE

Miami’s run defense was a major disappointment last season ranking 2^nd LAST in the ACC giving up over 200 yards a game. They also allowed opponents to average well over 5 yards a carry. Fixing the run defense is a top priority and the Hurricanes added a fine DL coach (Craig Kuligowski) to help mold this into a much better run-stopping unit. Miami did a decent job against the pass last season ranking 5^th in the ACC in pass efficiency defense while facing a very good group of opposing QBs. This unit promises to be very good again in 2016.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This looks like an excellent group. PK Michael Badgley is rock solid (25-30 last season) as is P Justin Vogel. Corn Elder is a dangerous return man who just missed qualifying for the NCAA punt return leaderboard as he only brought back 11 during the season but averaged 13.8 yards a pop and had a TD as well. Miami’s special teams will probably be responsible for a win or two by the time the season ends.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5

MEGALOCKS says:

There is a lot of excitement building around the Miami football program. A lot of that anticipation is well founded – excellent head coach, solid at QB, nice talent on the roster. There is still, however, work to be done with the defense. Can it be fixed quickly? Will they be able to generate a pass rush and stop the run? This is still a program that has not won a bowl game since the epic 2006 MPC Computers Bowl against Nevada. 6 straight bowl losses. No double-digit winning seasons in the last 10 years.

Overall, we give the HURRICANES a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season. Despite all the problems Miami had last season they still managed a very respectable 8-4-1 record against the number. This season they will definitely be a trendy sleeper pick and for that reason we may find it difficult to find value ATS particularly when they are big favorites. In the big picture, we still see Miami making progress in 2016, and can already see some potentially juicy spots to play them as underdogs or small favorites.

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Website

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Forum

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http://miami.247sports.com/Board/Miami-Hurricanes-Message-Board-Forum-92

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News

http://www.stateoftheu.com/

http://bleacherreport.com/miami-hurricanes-football