Miami Hurricanes 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Miami Hurricanes 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 10-3

ATS – 5-8

Yes, guy.

Ok, so it was a baby step, but Miami FINALLY got to the ACC Championship Game. Clemson blew them to bits but HC Mark Richt is off to a nice start in Miami (19-7 record over two seasons). The Hurricanes got on a big-time roll and started the season with 10 (!) consecutive wins that included victories over Florida St, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. The bubble was burst on the road at Pitt (L 24-14) and they dropped their final three games including the Orange Bowl.

It’s time to find out if Miami has what it takes to compete for an ACC title this year. <grabs popcorn>

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Coastal Division – #1

ACC – #3

Miami Hurricanes 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

QB Malik Rozier can be frustrating at times (54%, 14 INT LY) but he is definitely talented enough to lead the Canes to another division title. Rozier threw for over 3,000 yards last season and 26 TDs whilst rushing for another 468 and 5 TDs. When Rozier chooses to MATRICULATE in the passing game he will have a number of talented targets to look for including star WR Ahmmon Richards who missed time due to injury last year. The Canes will miss underrated WR Braxton Berrios and TE Christopher Herndon but do have a lot of raw talent and speed in the WR corps.

Miami needs to get more production out of the rushing attack if they want to become a consistent threat in the ACC (#10 ACC rushing offense LY) as they have not finished in the top-five in rushing offense in the conference since 2010 (!) (#3). RB Mark Walton left for the NFL (Bengals) but Travis Homer is a legitimate #1 back (966, 8 TD LY) and highly-regarded freshman Lorenzo Lingard could be a SURPRISE PACKAGE on offense. The offensive line is a bit of a concern as they return just three starters and allowed 29 sacks last season.

The Hurricanes scored 29.1 PPG LY (#5 ACC) and should be able to cross the 30 PPG barrier this year without a problem. It’s hard to see explosive upside unless one (or more) of the youngsters develop quickly.

DEFENSE

We will spare you the talk about the TURNOVER CHAIN. WE love it, but understand why it may be mildly annoying for folks that do not cheer for the Canes. Miami forced 31 (!) turnovers (#3 FBS) and that was a major contributor to the WHITE HOT start they got off to in 2017. They may not bag 31 this year but good coaching + great athletes = forced turnovers on most occasions (fun with math). This year they return seven starters including a loaded LB corps and top-notch secondary that includes a pair of all-conference performers (CB Michael Jackson, Jaquan Johnson). The Canes got excellent PENETRATION last year (44 sacks, #4 FBS) but lose a lot of that production and only return one starter on the DL.

The defense will be one of the best in the ACC and borderline special if they can get better-than-anticipated play from the DL.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This isn’t your daddy’s Miami special teams group. It looks a bit average on paper. Ace PK Michael Badgley departs as does excellent PR Braxton Berrios.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It seems that Miami may have dodged a bullet, yo. They have games with LSU and Toledo in out-of-conference action but both programs appear to be in a bit of a reload phase. Further, the Canes are in the easier side of the ACC and they avoid Clemson on the regular season docket. <breathes sigh of relief>

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Virginia Tech (November 17). This will be the Canes 3rd roadie in four weeks and Blacksburg is one of the toughest road tests in college football. It will also be the week after they get chop-blocked for an entire afternoon playing Georgia Tech.

Season Win Total

Over 9.5 +100

Under 9.5 -120

MEGALOCKS says:

Strong lean to the over. Ya, we are biased, but if they get past LSU in week one it seems highly-likely they will get to ten wins.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Miami is (+34) in turnover margin over the past three seasons.

The Canes are below-.500 in bowl games (19-20).

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the HURRICANES a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.

Don’t hate me because I’m beautiful.

Those are words of wisdom. You may not like the Canes, but it appears they are going to be really good for the foreseeable future. They are not at the level of ROLL TIDE, Ohio St, Clemson, or Georgia as of yet, but they are definitely in the next group down. What should we expect in 2018?

They certainly appear to be the class of the division. If the raw talent can develop quickly it’s not out of the realm of possibility they could be playing Clemson (as big underdogs) with a chance to make the college football playoff.

Miami will be a popular team with DEGENERATE NATION but we still feel they can cash more often than not vs the point spread.

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