Miami Hurricanes 2023 College Football Preview
July 9, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 2-10
“The horror! The horror!” <Heart of Darkness> <Joseph Conrad> <1899>
Year one of the Mario Cristobal era proved that things can go very badly, even when the head coach is chiseled out of granite and wears an extra-small polo shirt to show off the GUN SHOW and MAN HOOTERS.
YOUR Miami Hurricanes had a disastrous campaign that could easily be summarized in one game, and that was the 45-31 home loss to something called Middle Tennessee St. The final score was flattering in many respects, and it proved that Miami was a long way from being a legitimate threat in the ACC. They didn’t end the season strongly losing three of the final four contests and they were outscored 127-29 (!) in those defeats.
We still have hope. We believe. But it gets harder every day.
What does 2023 have in store for our beloved Hurricanes?
Miami Hurricanes 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
QB Tyler Van Dyke had a phenomenal 2021 season (25-6 TD to INT, 9.0 YPA) and hopes were high rolling into 2022. Van Dyke disappointed fans with a dismal showing LY (10-5 TD to INT, 7.3) but maybe, just maybe, it was due to injury, or the offensive system that didn’t tailor to his strengths. No more excuses. He’ll have to play well if the Hurricanes want to turn things around. The vast majority of the THROW GAME weaponry is back in action other than TE Will Mallory, and it’ll help to get a full season out of the dangerous WR Xavier Restrepo who missed a lot of time LY due to injury. The WR/TE compliment doesn’t appear to have an abundance of “star” talent but there’s a lot of depth and it’s very possible that a few youngsters emerge and become key contributors. Or maybe ROLL TIDE transfer Tyler Harrell turns out to be great? We don’t love the depth at RB but you’ve gotta respect the dual-threat ability of RB Henry Parrish who led the team in rushing LY whilst grabbing 17 receptions out of the backfield (2 TD). Against our better judgement, we feel good about the offensive line as they bagged a pair of excellent transfers in center Matt Lee (UCF) and guard Javion Cohen (ROLL TIDE). We project the Canes to make yuuuge strides on offense compared to LY’s horrible showing but don’t think they’ll hit the 2021 and 2020 output of 34 PPG.
DEFENSE
Let’s face the facts, yo. Miami has been really bad on defense the L3Y and they’ve allowed 27,28 and 27 PPG over that time horizon. Ten (!) starters are back for duty but note that the Canes scooped up a lot of bodies thru the transfer portal that will end up starting this season. That’s a good thing. The DL looks rock solid as it features an excellent DT combo as well as PENETRATING ability at DE. The LB unit looks decent enough and they bring back Corey Flagg (#3 tackler, T1 TFL LY) and add Washington St transfer Francisco Mauigoa who should start at MLB. We’re excited about the potential for the secondary as it features a pair of excellent safeties in Kamren Kinchens (3rd Team AA LY) (!) and James Williams (#2 tackler, 6 PBU). They’ve also added some intriguing transfers on the back end and we like the depth. This won’t be a brick wall, but we expect significant improvement in 2023. We can only hope that they’ve worked on “tackling” during the offseason.
SPECIAL TEAMS
You know things are a bit off when your favorite Hurricane is the punter, but alas, we say goodbye to their excellent punter Lou Hedley. PK Andres Borregales is a devastating weapon (17-20 FG, 32-32 XP LY) and they should be able to find some dangerous return guys amongst the WR/DB depth chart.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Let’s get to the good news first. Even though we’re talking about Miami, they appear to be a MORTAL LOCK to win at least three of their first four games. Unfortunately, the Canes draw all the BIG ‘UNS from the ACC and have to face UNC and Florida St ON THE HIGHWAY.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Boston College (Nov 24)
This kinda depends on how the season goes. It’s worth pointing out that this will be the Canes’ 3rd November road contest, and if the game is even close-to-meaningless, it might be a MAIL IT IN situation. Especially if the weather is WICKIDDD COLD in Baastan.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 9
Over 7.5 +120
Under 7.5 -150
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
It’s a tough call at that number. GUN TO THE HEAD selection is ‘over’ but we’re gonna shop around for a flat ‘7’. We have almost no confidence that one exists, even with high juice, but that’s the number we want.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Miami used to be good.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
There’s definitely reason to be cautiously optimistic about this team. We’re not talking ACC title obviously but there’s enough talent on the roster to keep them competitive in every game. Mario Cristobal has had to deal with a lot more cultural ROT than anticipated but we think he’s got things moving in the right direction. With a medium level of confidence, we’ll call for eight wins and a bowl appearance for the Canes. Let’s goooo!