Miami Hurricanes 2024 College Football Preview (free access)

Miami Hurricanes 2024 College Football Preview

Posted July 3, 2024

2023 Recap

Record – 7-6

ATS – 6-7

There were decent moments for long-suffering Hurricanes fans. Miami whipped Texas A&M like a RENTED MULE (W 48-33), took down mighty Clemson in 2OT, and ended the regular season with a road slaughter of Boston College. And don’t forget they only lost by a TD to both teams that made the ACC title game (Florida St, LUA-VUH). Yet the 2023 season was still very much a nightmare. The head coach forgets to take a knee and they lose to Georgia Tech. They score six points vs NC State. Rutgers (!) beats them in a a bowl game. And most importantly, the final record was 7-6. Not good enough.

Miami brought in a lot of talent over the offseason. Will that make a difference in year three of the Mario Cristobal regime?


Miami Hurricanes 2024 Outlook

OFFENSE

Ten minutes of Disney+ programming will make you violently ill. Yes, the Miami QB play last season was almost that bad (23-14 TD to INT, 7.7 YPA). Thankfully, the Hurricanes brought in star QB Cam Ward from Washington St (3,735, 25-7 TD to INT) and that gives Miami instant credibility at the QB position. Ward has a loaded WR group to utilize in the THROW GAME as Miami returns 1,000-yard WR Xavier Restrepo, Jacolby George (864, 8 TD), and adds Houston WR Samuel Brown (815, 3 TD). The TE room has a lot of potential and maybe we see some meaningful production. The best news of all might be the addition of Oregon St’s devastating RB Damien Martinez who rushed for 2,167 yards and 16 TDs in two years with the Beavers. Backup Mark Fletcher has enormous potential and we expect he’ll get some significant playing time. The offensive line will miss former center Matt Lee but they’ve still got one of the best units in the conference (3 RS, 120+ career starts) and recall that they paved the way for 5.1 YPC whilst allowing just 16 sacks LY. Yup, this is one of the best offenses in the ACC.

DEFENSE

The Miami defense was solid LY but not overwhelming (#2 ACC run D, #5 pass efficiency D, #3 sacks). The Hurricanes roll into 2024 with what can only be described as a comically-talented defensive line. There are potential stars all over the place. DE Rueben Bain was a monster as a true frosh (7.5 sacks, 12.5 TFL), DE Akheem Mesidor is healthy after missing most of 2023 (7 sacks in 2022), and they’ve added a handful of talented pieces to beef up the unit. The LB unit looks decent and is led by #1 tackler and 1st Team ACC honoree Francisco Mauigoa (18 TFL)(!). It’s sounds crazy to say this about a Miami defense but the secondary could be a problem area. They’ll be without a pair of great safeties that are both off to the NFL (Williams, Kinchens) and we’re not sure they’ve got any elite CBs on the roster. It’ll be up to the DL to set the tone and hopefully give opposing QBs very little time to dice Miami up on the back end.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Miami has one of the best kicking combos in the ACC in punter Dylan Joyce and PK Andres Borregales (22/26 FG LY) but they’ll miss KR Brashard Smith (29.0, TD LY).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It starts with a DOOZY and a must-watch event as they travel to the SWAMP to battle the Florida Gators. USF won’t be an easy non-conference game but Miami has a legit shot to start the season 4-0. The Canes have an average ACC draw as they miss Clemson and NC State but have to tackle Virginia Tech (H), Florida St (H), and LUA-VUH (A).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Duke (Nov 2)

This could be a letdown game for the home team as they’ll be coming off back-to-back tough ones (at Cards, Seminoles). Also note that Duke’s new head coach is your boy Manny Diaz (Miami HC 2019-2021). #Motivation

Season Win Total

Market consensus July 3

Over 9 -125

Under 9 +105

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

That looks about right to us. The roster is loaded with talent but it’s not like these guys haven’t wasted talent before, yo.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Mario Cristobal may be chiseled out of GRANITE but he’s been a horrible coach vs the point spread. Mario is 8-17 ATS with Miami (32%) and 64-81-2 ATS overall (44%) including his time with Florida International and Oregon.

Miami is an impossibly-disgusting 1-11 in their last 12 bowl games. Their only win over that span was a 31-14 victory over West Virginia in the 2016 Russell Athletic Bowl.

Cheering for the MIAMI HURRICANES is often as painful as getting your eyeball caught on a rusty nail, but these are still our guys.


MEGALOCKS Forecast:

The expectations are SKY HIGH for the Hurricanes this season, and rightly so. They’ve added a ton of talent to the roster and there isn’t a game on the schedule they can’t win. There are still a few questions to ponder. Will Cam Ward be THAT good in the ACC? Can the back end of the defense hold up? How many games will they lose as a result of horrible gameday coaching? We’ll know if this is a team capable of winning the ACC after September dates vs Florida (A) and Virginia Tech (H). We’ll call for nine or ten wins and give them an excellent shot to play for the ACC title in December.

Let’s go, BAY-BEE !