Miami Hurricanes 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 13, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 7-6
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.”
<A Tale of Two Cities>
<Charles Dickens>
YOUR Miami Hurricanes got everyone’s hopes up last year when they won their first nine games and appeared to be a LOCK to make the ACC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. Sure, there were a few close shaves in there <cough, Cal, cough, Virginia Tech), but they were finding ways to win. What could possibly go wrong? Well, Miami couldn’t get off the field vs Georgia Tech and lost their first game of the season, and then with all the chips on the line in the regular season finale, the Canes blew a 21-CACK lead vs Syracuse and choked away a spot in the ACC title game. Iowa St slithered past Miami in a meaningless, but very entertaining Pop-Tarts Bowl (42-41) to drop Miami’s record to 10-3. It was their first 10-win season since the REAGAN ADMINISTRATION **** but the way the season ended was brutal for Hurricanes fans.
**** Needs fact check.
Miami Hurricanes 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Hurricanes were an unstoppable force for the vast majority of the season behind superstar QB Cam Ward (4,313, 39-7 TD to INT; 4 rush TD) and they finished #1 in the nation in total offense (537 YPG) and #3 in passing offense (348 YPG). Ward was taken in the first round of the NFL Draft (Titans) and it’ll be up to Georgia transfer Carson Beck to take over the controls. Beck has thrown for over 7,400 yards in the last two years with the Bulldogs (52-18 TD to INT) and he appears healthy and ready to roll in 2025. The Canes will miss 1,000-yard RB Damien Martinez but the RB room remains deep with the return of their #2 and #3 rushers (Fletcher, Lyle) and North Dakota St transfer CharMar Brown is a hefty specimen that’ll be able to move the chains (5-11, 222; 1,181, 15 TD LY). The biggest concern on offense is clearly the lack of continuity at WR/TE as Miami will be without their top-four (!) WRs from LY’s squad along with stud TE Elijah Arroyo (590, 16.9, 7 TD). Miami added some productive transfers including WR CJ Daniels (1,067, 19.4, 10 TD with Liberty in 2023; LSU in 2024), WR Tony Johnson (Cincinnati), and TE Alex Bauman (Tulane, 7 TD LY) but it’s clear that the group is down a notch from 2024. The good news is that there are a small handful of talented youngsters ready to make their mark such as WR Joshua Moore and WR Malachi Toney, but we’ll have to see how things go. The Canes’ offensive line is one of the best in the ACC and they’re strong at the tackle position, and they added senior center James Brockermeyer from TCU.
DEFENSE
The Miami defense wasn’t a complete disaster from a statistical standpoint LY (25 PPG, #68, #19 run defense, #50 pass efficiency D) but they gave up way too many big plays and showed their true colors once the non-conference schedule ended (31 PPG in ACC play, 42 vs Iowa St in bowl game). Miami made the necessary change at DC and it’ll be up to Corey Hetherman to get things fixed, and note that he did some fine work whilst at Minnesota. The talent pool at DL is deep and it’ll be great to see stud DE Rueben Bain back at full strength (7.5 sacks in 2023, 3.5 LY). We’d like to see one or two young guys up front POP this season, and maybe it’ll be DE Armondo Blount or DT Justin Scott? Former Rutgers star LB Mohamed Toure (93 tackles, 7.5 TFL in 2023) appears ready to go at full speed and he’s got big shoes to fill now that #1 tackler LB Francisco Mauigoa is off to the NFL (Chiefs). We’re not thrilled with the LB depth but we’re hoping for more sound play under the new DC. Miami will be relying heavily on transfers on the back end of the defense and they appear set at CB with the addition of Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) and the return of sophomore OJ Frederique. We’ll see how the new safety combo works out and it’ll likely be Jakobe Thomas (Tennessee) and Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville St) doing the majority of the heavy lifting back there.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It stings to lose deadly PK Andres Borregales (18/19 FG, 62/62 XP!) and the Canes hope that former Texas PK Bert Auburn can regain the excellent form he had in 2023 (29/35 FG vs 16/25 FG LY). Punter Dylan Joyce and PR Ray Ray Joseph are back in the mix but the Canes will need to find a new primary KR.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Canes open up with four straight home games and they’ve got impossible EIGHT of their first TEN games in the friendly confines of Hard Rock Stadium. The bad news is that two of the early home games are against one elite opponent (Notre Dame) and one very talented rival (Florida), and they’ll do well to split those two games in our estimation. Miami misses Clemson in ACC play but have to face SMU (A) and LUA-VUH (H), and the final two tests of the regular season take place in tricky road venues (Virginia Tech, Pitt).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Stanford (Oct 25)
The Cardinal look really awful on paper but this game is sandwiched between the yuuuge games with the Cardinals and Mustangs, and it’s worth pointing out that Miami is just 5-10 ATS (33%) as a home favorite under HC Mario Cristobal.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 13
Over 9.5 +120
Under 9.5 -150
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
That looks about right. The vast majority of our 23 models predict that Miami will finish with nine or ten regular season victories.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
As showcased above, Mario Cristobal has been a bad bet as a home favorite with the Canes, and he’s also been very disappointing in ACC action (7-17 ATS, 29%).
The Hurricanes’ astounding run of bowl game mediocrity continued last year when they fell to Iowa St in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Miami has now lost six of those BAD BOYS in a row, and won only ONE of their last THIRTEEN bowl games dating back to 2008.
Miami has only made one ACC Championship Game since the event started back in 2005, and that appearance wasn’t very memorable (38-3 loss to Clemson in 2017).
If you haven’t made the drive from Miami to Key West, we highly recommended it, yo.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
That was a tough way to end the season for YOUR Miami Hurricanes. We were disappointed with how things transpired in those final few weeks, but the many folks with MDS **** were quite pleased. This year’s roster looks very talented and deep on both sides of the football but they appear to be a clear notch down from Clemson in terms of elite talent. The Hurricanes are one of a few teams that could give Clemson a bit of a challenge should they meet in the ACC Championship Game, and we hope to see them there!
**** Miami Derangement Syndrome. Quite literally, a mental illness that defies logic.