College Football Predictions – Miami Redhawks 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 6-6
ATS – 8-4
They just ran out of racetrack.
Miami started slow winning one of their first five games only to catch fire at the end of the regular season with a three-game winning streak. Two of those victories came against BIGGIE SIZE conference opponents (Ohio, Northern Illinois) but the Redhawks got a bowl snub after finishing with a record of 6-6.
The Redhawks will attempt to continue that momentum and they should be plenty motivated to get off to a stronger start.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #4
MAC – #8
Miami Redhawks 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Redhawks were a JUGGERNAUT on offense last year, at least by their historical standards, as they averaged over 25 PPG (28.1) for the first time since 2005 (!) when they bagged 33.7 per contest. The show must go on without their efficient QB Gus Ragland and it’s anyone’s guess who will line up under center in the season opener. Miami returns ZERO career pass attempts and we need to check out fall camp to find out what the youngsters might provide on offense this year. The WR corps brings back #1 WR Jack Sorenson (53-742, 14.0, 2 TD) and look like a decent supporting cast.
The Redhawks are going to have to rely on their ground game until a reliable QB is discovered and the bad news is that they lose their top-two rushers from a season ago that combined for over 1,100 yards and 13 TDs. Maurice Thomas is back (#3 rusher among RBs LY) but it’s unclear if he is #1 (or even #2) potential. The OL has been good in pass protection allowing just 41 sacks over the past two seasons. They return three starters to the unit and those men will need to be at their best for the offense to have a shot at being productive.
We project the scoring output to drop to the level of what was achieved in 2017 (24.4 PPG).
DEFENSE
It doesn’t take a TWITTER GENIUS to figure out that Miami has made nice strides over the past three seasons due to the play of their defense. They have been rock solid lately (25.5, 24.1, 23.8 PPG L3Y) but will need to navigate the upcoming season without their former defensive leader LB Brad Koenig who led the team in tackles by a large margin a season ago. The DL looks to be in good shape with the return of star DT Doug Costin (2nd Team MAC LY) who led the squad in sacks (6) and TFL (10.5) in 2018. The secondary is in good shape with three returning starters and they add a couple of interesting transfers from Iowa.
This defense looks as talented as the 2018 version and they should have better luck with injuries. Our primary concern is that they may be on the field a lot if the offense struggles to move the ball.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look really good in the kicking game with the return of solid P Kyle Kramer and PK Sam Sloman who nailed 10/11 FG attempts from inside 50 yards last year. The KR unit was one of the best in the MAC LY and both return men are back for duty.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The out-of-conference schedule is BRUTAL as it includes road trips to Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio St. Someone needs to be fired. Just kidding. Not really.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Iowa (August 31)
This is NOT the place you want to introduce a new QB. If TREND GUY gets you on the Redhawks, have fun. It’s not impossible for them to cover but we will wait for better spots to back Miami.
Season Win Total
Over 6 +150
Under 6 -170
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. It will be hard to get to seven wins with that schedule.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Miami Ohio has won 22 (!) conference titles since 1916. Eighteen of those were OUTRIGHT.
This program is often referred to as the CRADLE OF COACHES given the legends that have sharpened their coaching skills in Oxford. Those men include Sid Gillman, Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler and Randy Walker.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
Miami typically has a LOT of trouble scoring points and this year may be another struggle. It’s hard to know what to expect at QB and the cupboard of complementary weapons appears to be fairly bare. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors but the defense looks good. And at least they know they can win conference games. They are 16-8 SU in MACTION games over the past three seasons so maybe they can do some damage later in the year?
Chuck Martin has been a good bet since arriving in Oxford as the Redhawks have just one losing season vs the point spread since he took the reins, and they are an impressive 35-25-1 (58%) ATS over that time horizon. There’s just too much to worry about on offense and we will take a pass on backing these guys, at least until conference play starts.
Want more Miami Ohio football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.miamiredhawks.com/sports/m-footbl/mioh-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
http://test.miamihawktalk.com/talk/discussions
NEWS
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/193/miami-(oh)-redhawks
http://www.daytondailynews.com/sports/miami-university-redhawks/
http://bleacherreport.com/miami-redhawks-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/miami-ohio-redhawks
TWITTER
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