Michigan at Notre Dame – College Football Predictions
The Game
Yes, guy.
You may not be a fan of either team BUT this is a great rivalry and will be must-see TV. Both teams have high hopes for the season and the Notre Dame faithful will be super pumped. Can CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY lead them to victory, or is there more to the story?
Both teams were sub-par down the stretch last season and will look to get 2018 off on the right foot. Let’s goooooooooo!
The Details
Notre Dame -1 Michigan (46.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Michigan -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Notre Dame 23.75 Michigan 22.75
The Match-Up
Michigan offense vs Notre Dame defense
If you have managed to grab a taste of our RADIO SPOTS over the summer you will know that we are CAUTIOUSLY optimistic about Shea Patterson at QB. There is zero doubt that the raw talent is a massive upgrade over recent signal callers but it remains to be seen how he does against a brutal schedule, and it all starts this week. We like the look of the two-headed monster at RB (Karan Higdon, Chris Evans) and believe that a new OL coach and the THREAT of a passing game will help open things up for everyone. The dual TEs are going to be a nightmare for Notre Dame in this match-up as we foresee lots of easy completions. WR Tarik Black suffered a serious foot injury and it’s unclear what the Wolverines have behind Donovan Peoples-Jones on the depth chart. Notre Dame brings a fine defense to the table with nine returning starters but will operate with a new DC. We worry most about a lack of PENETRATION from the Fighting Irish as they have only bagged 24 and 14 sacks the past two seasons. It seems to us that it will be tough sledding for Michigan but certainly easier than facing last season’s Ohio St or Wisconsin defenses to end the regular season.
Notre Dame offense vs Michigan defense
We have a more favorable opinion of QB Brandon Wimbush than many people but the fact remains that he completed less than 50% of his passes last season and was not much of a factor late in the year. Ian Book is a decent back-up but Wimbush is such a phenomenal athlete it seems to us that he will need to elevate his game in order for Notre Dame to win this game and do special things the rest of the season. The offense will be without their top-three (!) RBs from last season including star Josh Adams (1,430, 9 TD) and projected #1 Dexter Williams who is suspended. Our NOTRE DAME SUSPENSION INSIDERS have noted that HC Brian Kelly is going to dress Williams (!) for the game so is it POSSIBLE he plays? He has pulled a similar move before with suspended players and probably just wants to give Michigan something to think about. Regardless, the running game is going to have a NIGHTMARE getting going vs a Michigan BRICK WALL that has finished #3, #1 and #4 in total defense the past three seasons. The Irish will also be without two of their top three receivers from last season’s squad. Michigan can bring the HEAT and have bagged 42 and 46 (!) sacks the past two years. It’s hard to imagine Notre Dame doing much consistently on offense.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Michigan has not bagged a road victory over a Top-25 team since 2006 (!)……The KARMA FACTOR?…That game was at Notre Dame…..Michigan is just 42% ATS overall the last 10 years….Notre Dame is below .500 the past 10 years but has had more success recently…..Weather is looking a bit dicey as we go to press with the possibility of thunderstorms….That could mean a bit more randomness to the outcome and who knows what it might mean if there is a delay (or multiple delays)…..MEGALOCKS BETTE MIDDLER CLUB may be interested in taking the under now and the over later in the week or in-game.
Summary
We have looked far and wide for an advantage that Notre Dame has in this game. <crickets> CROWD WILL BE ROCKING GUY will pound the Irish given the home field edge. Maybe the trends? The Irish will need to be +2 or better in turnover margin to get it done in our humble estimation. Possible. Not likely.
When the bullets start flying we believe that the quality of the Michigan defense will cause more havoc and create more short fields for the offense. Shea Patterson is the wild-card that gives Michigan the chance to win by double digits BUT we are not counting on that in week one. Both teams will be good this season. Michigan seems like the more likely team to deliver a solid performance in week one.
Conclusion
Official play: Michigan +1 -106
Lean: Under 46.5
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.