Michigan St at Miami – College Football Predictions

Michigan St at Miami – College Football Predictions

The Game

YOUR Miami Hurricanes escaped with their lives last week and squeaked by App St (W 25-23) to even their record at 1-1. It was a sloppy performance but they were probably still a bit stunned after getting pounded by ROLL TIDE. Michigan St pulled a small upset on the road at Northwestern in week one and looked good doing it. They come into this BAD BOY with a mark of 2-0.

The Details

Miami -6.5 Michigan St (56.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Miami -7

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Miami 31.5 Michigan St 25

The Match-Up:

Miami offense vs Michigan St defense

The offense hasn’t looked very good (or consistent) so far, but to be fair, they’ve played one elite team and one really good squad. They’re #94 in the FBS in rushing and #96 in passing and have completed just 37% of 3rd down opportunities (#82 FBS). Cam’Ron Harris needs to start dominating (4.2 YPC) and the THROW GAME has to hit some big plays once in a while (long 36Y so far). Overall they have an above-average set of weapons but don’t (in our estimation) have a game changing player at RB or WR or TE. It’s the scheme and excellent QB play that makes things work (when they do). Michigan St’s D has looked decent but note that they’ve played a pair of weak offenses. This is a yuuuuge step up in class for SPARTY. Statistically, they’ve been MEH defending the run and the pass, and haven’t been that strong on 3rd downs. They’ve booked five sacks in 2G.

Michigan St offense vs Miami defense

Yes, guy.

QB Payton Thorne looks like a keeper to us after the first two games and he’s supported by a REALLY good 1-2 combo at RB in Kenneth Walker (321, 10.7, 264-4 TD vs Northwestern) (!) and Jordon Simmons (131, 6.2). The WR group is healthy <crosses fingers> and off to a really good start. Jayden Reed has already booked 245Y and a pair of TDs. They’ve only allowed 2 sacks in 2G. Miami has been abused in the first two games and we think the Michigan St offense is about equal to what App St puts out there, but with a much more imposing deep passing threat. The SPEEDY MIDGET DEFENSE strategy will be put to the test and note that Miami has only tallied a pair of sacks in 2G.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

The weather might favor Miami as they’re more used to hot conditions….Looks like 90 degrees or so with a decent chance of showers at some point…..Not much wind.

Summary

We’d feel better catching the full +7 with Sparty. It’s hard to see either defense having sustained success and there are plenty of big plays waiting to happen.

Conclusion

Lean – Over 56.5


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you need action. < but always stay tuned for updates >

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in that market.

Team totalsWe list the implied number based on the point spread and total when our analysis is posted. If a team total ends up being an official play we will post a widely available number at the time of pick release. 

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