Michigan St at Washington – College Football Predictions
Posted September 15, 2022
The Game
YES, GUY.
We’ve got a classic PAC 12 vs BIG TEN match-up at Sparty travels out west to take on the Huskies. The Kalen Deboer era has got off to a promising start but it’s hard to put too much stock into wins over Kent St and Portland St. Michigan St just keeps winning under HC Mel Tucker but this will be their toughest test by far after beating a pair of MAC teams (W Michigan, Akron).
Let’s go!
The Details
Washington -3.5 Michigan St (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Washington -1.5
MEGALOCKS market consensus – Washington -0.8
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Washington 30 Michigan St 26.5
The Match-Up:
Washington offense vs Michigan St defense
Michael Penix has been just what the doctor ordered at QB as he’s completed 70% of his passes (6-1 TD to INT) whilst allowing the VERY underrated group of WRs start to reach their potential. Penix gets rid of the ball quickly and distributes it very well so that’ll make it difficult for the outstanding Michigan St pass rush to get home (12 sacks, #1 FBS). The Huskies averaged a pitiful 98 YPG rushing LY but have done a good job in their tune-up games (132, 241). It’s hard to take too much from Sparty’s 52-CACK win over a pathetic Akron squad but note that Western Michigan was able to move the ball on the ground and thru the air reasonably well in game one. And recall that Michigan St gave up approximatley 78,000 passing yards LY **. Injuries have also take at least a small bite out of the Michigan St stop unit as well.
** fact check: close to true
Michigan St offense vs Washington defense
QB Payton Thorne has been MEH so far (4-3 TD to INT) but he’s a crafty veteran that has proven he can play well in big games. #1 WR Jayden Reed is a listed as questionable as we approach press time and it would be a yuuuge hit for the Sparty THROW GAME is he was unable to go. We think he’ll rest up for a Big Ten opener next week (Minnesota) but that’s just a wild guess. The key to winning this game will come on the ground as Michigan St has gotta pound the potentially SOFT UNDERBELLY of the Washington D with their fine 1-2 RB combo (Berger, Broussard). The Huskies have looked better on this side of the football but this will be their first real test.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The INTREPID Marc Lawrence reminds us that Michigan St is 0-8 ATS in their last eight games vs the PAC 12 and Washington is 8-4 ATS L12 hosting the Big Ten…..It looks like perfect football weather has we approach game day.
Summary
This line has certainly surprised us and it’s incredibly hard to make a case for the home team based purely on theoretical “value”. However, we’re higher than most on the Huskies and think this is a tough spot for a bit of a banged-up Sparty team that has bigger fish to try in the near future.
Conclusion
Lean – Washington -3 -116 (-115 to -125 widely available)
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we’ve played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we’re comfortable suggesting a ‘small potatoes’ wager if you want to get some sweet action down on the game. ‘Leans’ are eligible for upgrade to ‘official’ status during the week.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved from a wagering standpoint.