Michigan St Spartans 2019 College Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Michigan St Spartans 2019 College Football Preview

2018 Recap

Record – 7-6

ATS – 5-8

It was a really strange version of the Spartans. Their defense was fantastic. The offense was horrible. The bowl loss to Oregon pretty much sums up the season (lost 7-6). They pulled off a road upset at Penn St but lost pretty much every other game that involved a decent opponent. Arizona St. Northwestern. Michigan. Ohio St. Nebraska. Three of those losses came by a combined seven points. There was no magic to be found.

Let’s see if the Spartans are poised for a rebound season under their excellent HC Mark Dantonio.

2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

East Division – #3

Big 10 – #3

Michigan St Spartans 2019 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Spartans were a TRAIN WRECK a season ago and were ranked #13 in the conference in total offense (342 YPG). There were a lot of injuries to deal with, but the fact remains that it was an absolutely hideous experience to watch Michigan St with the football. The only teams to average less than the Spartans’ output of 18.7 PPG were the JUGGERNAUT UTEP, Central Michigan, UTSA, and Rutgers squads. What about looking ahead?

Good news. Senior QB Brian Lewerke is back for battle and should be healthy to start the campaign. The bad news? Lewerke completed just 54% of his passes last season with an UNSEEMLY 8-11 TD to INT ratio. Last season’s back-up Rocky Lombardi is probably not the answer. Lewerke has played very well before and the hope is that he can get back close to where he has performed in the past (2017: 59%, 2793, 20-7 TD to INT, 5 rush TD). The WR corps looks good enough even with the loss of the dangerous Felton Davis.

If Michigan St plans on relying on the passing game to do the damage it will probably be a long season. They gained a paltry 125 YPG on the ground a season ago (#13 Big Ten) and have to get the ground attack rolling. Connor Heyward and La’Darius Jefferson should be an effective 1-2 punch BUT the real upside lies with highly-recruited specimen true freshman Anthony Williams who just might be the #1 back the offense so desperately needs. More good news. Five starters return on the OL and they have nice size.

DEFENSE

That was AWESOME.

In 2018, Michigan St played some of the best defense you will ever see vs the run. They ranked #1 vs the run in the FBS allowing 78 YPG. That marked the second straight season that the Spartans held opponents to under the 100-yard mark. Big Ten opponents will be sad to hear that they return eight starters and have serious talent at every level of the defense.

The DL should be a freaking BRICK WALL once again as all four starters return and they have a ton of experience, size, and ability. DE Kenny Willekes is a star and he acheived AA status last season while tallying 8.5 sacks, 20.5 (!) TFL, and 12 QBH. Keep an eye on his status during fall camp as he suffered a leg injury during their bowl game and did not participate during the spring. The clean-up crew at LB returns a pair of starters including leading tackler senior LB Joe Bachie (102 tackles, 8.5 TFL) and the secondary looks strong (again) led by their excellent CB Josiah Scott. Note that the Spartans were #4 in the Big Ten last year in terms of pass efficiency D (14-14 TD to INT).

We expect really good things from the Michigan St defense and expect them to allow less than 20 PPG for the second consecutive year.

SPECIAL TEAMS

There is continuity across the board. PK Matt Coghlin is almost automatic inside 50 yards (18-20 LY, 0-2 from 50+) and that is a yuuuuge help to a team that plays in a lot of close games.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The Spartans start out with a pair of layups before their revenge game at home vs Arizona St. The road schedule is flat-out nasty as they make trips to Ohio St and Wisconsin in back-to-back weeks. They also face their pals from Ann Arbor in the BIG HOUSE on November 16. They get the benefit of a couple off dates on October 19 and November 2.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Rutgers (November 23)

Sparty escaped by the skin of their teeth last season in a home date vs the WACKY Scarlet Knights (won 14-10) and Rutgers looks to be an improved squad. This contest follows the game with Michigan and, regardless of the outcome of that match-up, it might be a bad spot to back the Spartans.

Season Win Total

Over 8 -130

Under 8 +110

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the over. The road docket is daunting but this defense will make it difficult to lose more than four games. The upside is certainly there. <grabs popcorn>

MEGAmazing Tidbits

BOWL NUGGETS, yo!

Michigan St is 4-1 in Rose Bowl games. Nice. Yet somehow Mark Dantonio is 5-6 in bowl contests leading this program and the great Nick Saban was winless in three post-season appearances with the Spartans.