Michigan St Spartans 2024 College Football Preview
Posted July 10, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 5-6-1
We’ve seen some bad football during our time on this fine planet, but the 2023 Michigan St Spartans are right up there with the classics. The offense was dreadful and they only managed to cobble together wins vs a collection of scrubs (Central Michigan, Richmond, CORN, Indiana). There was even a six-game losing streak in there to make sure that fans knew there was no hope. We suppose it wasn’t ideal to lose your head coach after two games ** but nonetheless, Michigan St ended up with their 3rd losing season in four years.
** Hang up immediately if Mel Tucker gets you on the phone. Especially if you detect heavy breathing.
Michigan St Spartans 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
Michigan St averaged a measly 16 PPG LY (#131 FBS) as they combined horrible QB play with a rushing attack that went nowhere. We see better things on the horizon as the Spartans acquired a promising dual-threat QB from Oregon St in Aidan Chiles who FLASHED in limited action as a true freshman LY with Oregon St. The ‘backup’ plan is North Dakota transfer QB Tommy Schuster who threw for over 9,000 yards during his tenure with the Fighting Hawks. New HC Jonathan Smith (Oregon St) loves himself a good rushing attack and the Spartans have a fine RB duo in Nathan Carter and UMass transfer Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams who rushed for 1,157 yards last season with the Minutemen. The OL is a major question mark as it’s undergoing a significant rebuild and it’ll be up to talented transfers Tanner Miller (center) and Luke Newman (Holy Cross) to anchor the unit. The THROW GAME weaponry leaves a little to be desired but at least they retain #1 WR Montorie Foster and add a legit passing threat at TE in Jack Velling (438,15.1, 8 TD LY). There’s still a long way to go but the Spartans will be more productive on offense this year.
DEFENSE
Defense certainly wasn’t the problem LY as the stop unit received no help from the offense and held together fairly well (#78 total defense) whilst achieving reasonable PENETRATION (29 sacks, #53). Sparty returns their top-four tacklers and they’ve added a lot of talent thru the transfer portal, including a small handful of potential starters. Michigan St loses three starters up front but they added several new bodies including DE Quindarious Dunnigan (MTSU) and DT D’Quan Douse (Georgia Tech) who should both move into the starting lineup. The LB corps looks solid with the return of #1 tackler Cal Haladay and the addition of veterans Jordan Turner (Wisconsin) and Wayne Matthews (Old Dominion). Safety Malik Spencer (#2 tackler) returns on the back end with, wait for it, more TRANSFERS, and we project improvement in terms of defending the pass this year. It certainly doesn’t hurt to have excellent DC Joe Rossi come over from Minnesota.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Michigan St needs to find productive primary return men but they’ve got a strong kicking combo in ace punter Ryan Eckley (2nd Team Big Ten LY) and senior PK Johnathan Kim (13/18 FG, 4/7 from 50+).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Spartans have a chance to get off to a good start with three winnable non-conference games (FAU, Prairie View, at Boston College) and a conference road game vs Maryland. The middle of the schedule is absolutely brutal and it includes back-to-back games vs Ohio St (H) and Oregon (A). Things soften up in November and they’ve got a legit shot to finish strong.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Indiana (Nov 2)
This contest follows a pair of MEAT GRINDERS (Iowa, at Michigan) and note that Indiana has won two in a row in East Lansing.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 10
Over 4.5 -150
Under 4.5 +120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
The middle of the schedule is a write-off but there are enough winnable games on the docket to get to five wins.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
New HC Jonathan Smith was an eye-popping 15-3 ATS in the role of home favorite with Oregon St.
Michigan St was coached by someone named MUDDY WATERS from 1980-1982. Not 1880-1882. That’s awesome. Muddy left town with a record of 10-23 and was replaced the next season by George Perles.
Here’s something interesting about Michigan St….Oh, wait just a second….our phone line is ringing…..Hello?…..Oh no!….It’s Mel Tucker and he just asked us what we’re wearing. Time to hang up.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Michigan St made one of the best coaching hires of the offseason by bagging Jonathan Smith and the roster looks a lot better now than it did at the end of the 2023 season. Michigan St fans will have to be patient but we believe good things aren’t too far ahead. We’ll call for four to six wins and give them a shot of making a bowl game if they can avoid a large bite from the injury bug. They just don’t have enough depth on the roster to withstand serious carnage.
Good luck, Sparty!