Michigan Wolverines 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Michigan Wolverines 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 8-5

ATS – 5-8

Pffffffffft. And the air went out of the balloon.

Michigan got off to an 8-2 start, but marred by sketchy QB play, they finished up losing their last three games to finish at 8-5. It is no serious disgrace to lose to Ohio St and Wisconsin, but the performance vs South Carolina in the Outback Bowl was pretty dismal. Michigan has a record of 28-11 under HC Harbaugh, but the fans want more. Can they step up in 2018 with a loaded roster and new QB? <grabs popcorn>

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

East Division – #2

Big 10 – #2

Michigan Wolverines 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

It’s the moment we have all been waiting for, yo. The Wolverines finally have a legit signal caller at the controls and expectations for the offense are justifiably high. Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson has thrown for over 3,000 yards in just 10 career starts and looks to give Michigan the spark they need to get over the hump. Patterson should enjoy having a couple of young guys at WR with loads of potential (Tarik Black, Donovan Peoples-Jones) and a solid pair of TEs. Michigan has been unable to MATRICULATE consistently in the passing game in recent years, but there is no reason to think that they cannot take a big step forward in that regard. Michigan allowed a horrid 36 sacks (!) in 2017 (#110 FBS sacks allowed per game) and will need to fix the pass protection if they want to move the ball consistently vs the better defenses on their schedule.

The rushing attack should be fine with a deep group of running backs led by Karan Higdon (2017 – 994, 6.1, 11 TD) and Chris Evans (685, 5.1, 6 TD). The offensive line returns three starters, and we can see the Wolverines hitting the 200 yards per game mark on the ground. The only thing holding them back may be the tough schedule. Michigan should be dangerous on offense and fly past the 2017 output of 25.2 PPG.

DEFENSE

Michigan has been fantastic on defense the past three seasons allowing just 271, 262 and 281 yards per game over that time horizon (overall FBS rank – #3, #1, #4) (!!!). DC Don Brown has done a great job the past two years and now gets 9 returning starters to work with in 2018.

Michigan has bagged 40+ sacks in each of the past two years and this season should bring similar results. They feature a pair of 1st Team Big 10 DEs (Rashan Gary, Chase Winovich) who combined for 14 sacks and 30 TFL in 2018. The LB group is led by leading tackler and 2nd Team AA (!) Devin Bush, and the secondary returns all four starters to a group that finished #4 in the FBS in pass efficiency defense and #1 in passing yards allowed in 2017.

Bottom line? It will be funny to watch other teams attempt to score on Michigan.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Michigan looks good in this department as well. PK Quinn Nordin made 19/24 FGs last season including 2/3 from 50+ yards. PR Donovan Peoples-Jones took one to the house last year, and that was a special treat for the MEGALOCKS POSSE which attended the event.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – Yikes. The schedule looks really tough. They play in the GROUP OF DEATH (Big 10 East) and hook up with Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Northwestern in their spare time. They do have seven home games.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing jumps off the page. There are a few look ahead spots. We are more concerned with the schedule’s overall difficulty level.

Season Win Total

Over 9 -110

Under 9 -110

MEGALOCKS says:

If you bagged an 8.5, congrats. We definitely lean to the over but the ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM appears to be the killer schedule. The can definitely go 10-2 with this roster, it’s just going to be really tough. Pass for now.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The fantastic helmet design dates back to 1938 when it was introduced, in large part, to help QBs locate receivers downfield. Amaze your PSYCHO EX-GIRLFRIEND with that gem.

Michigan goes from just 5 returning starters in 2017 to a whopping 17 in 2018.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the WOLVERINES a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.

Whoa. I know, I know. We have not been fans of Michigan’s ATS prospects the past couple of seasons, and they have struggled to an 18-21 (46%) mark against the point spread under the tutelage of Coach Jim. And to top it all off, there is a definite BUZZ around the program with the arrival of QB Shea Patterson. Seems like a SQUARE opinion, yo?

The key thing to remember is that while you will almost always get the worst of the number supporting Michigan ATS, this team appears to be a legit powerhouse. And this just in; If you shutout your opponents on a regular basis, you will probably cover a lot of games. People may fluke into some winning Michigan tickets based on the sparkle of a shiny new QB, but there is a lot more to this team than Shea Patterson. FADE GUY will note that Michigan has a brutal point spread mark over the past 10 years (42%), but we feel that fade opportunities will arise primarily when they are yuuuuuge home favorites.

Want more Michigan football ?

WEBSITE

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FORUM

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NEWS

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