College Football Predictions – Michigan Wolverines 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 10-3
ATS – 6-7
Not again!
The Wolverines rattled off an impressive ten wins in a row after a tough opening loss at the hands of Notre Dame. They were in great shape to take care of business vs Ohio St (finally) and get to the Big Ten Championship Game. Oops. The Buckeyes used 8,000 passing yards (estimate) to help them demolish Michigan by a score of 62-39. That gives Ohio St fourteen wins in their past fifteen match-ups. The season didn’t end on a high note as they were drilled by the Florida Gators by a count of 41-15 in the Peach Bowl (Congrats MEGALOCKS BOWL BONANZA DRONE STRIKE CLUB members).
The Wolverines have 38 wins in four years under Jim Harbaugh. Can THIS be the year where they transition from “really good” to “great”?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
Big 10 – #1
Michigan Wolverines 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s easy to forget that for all the complaining about the Michigan offense they have still had a pair of productive seasons over the last three campaigns. They put up 35.2 PPG last year and 40.3 PPG in 2016. We expect to see another excellent performance out of the Wolverines as they have plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball AND they have a new OC (Josh Gattis) who will speed things up and introduce a “Pro spread no-huddle”. This should fit QB Shea Patterson like a glove as he has played most of his football under similar schemes. Patterson did well last year (2,600, 22-7 TD to INT, 64.6%) but he still gets criticized for not being able to “win the big one”. It’s a bit unfair, particularly since he has only started ONE season at Michigan, but pressure comes to those in prominent roles.
It’s been a while since we have been this excited about the prospects for the Michigan offensive line. They return four starters to an experienced unit that also boasts some nice size. Last year the OL paved the way for a decent 4.8 YPC whilst allowing just 23 sacks. They are without question one of the most talented OL groups in the conference. Depth could be a problem at the RB spot with the departure of #1 RB Karan Higdon (1,178, 10 TD LY) and the suspension of #2 RB Chris Evans who will not be with the team in 2019. Unproven youngsters Christian Turner and Zach Charbonnet will get a chance to shine and senior Tru Wilson is still in the mix. The WR group should be SCARY for opposing defenses. The 1-2-3 combo of Nico Collins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and a healthy Tarik Black should put up big numbers, particularly when working in this new offensive scheme. The dangerous TE Zach Gentry will be missed.
DEFENSE
Michigan has allowed fewer than 20 PPG in each of the four season’s under Jim Harbaugh’s watch (19.4, 18.8, 14.1, 16.4) and that is not easy to accomplish with the way today’s offenses can score points. Yes, even in the Big Ten. It helps to have an ace DC (Don Brown) and a seemingly endless supply of talent. There is concern this year as the Wolverines lose their top-three tacklers and a small handful of true defensive stars. They will also be without their excellent DL coach Greg Mattison who left for Ohio St (!) to become co-DC.
The line is CHOCK FULL of young talent but only returns one starter to the mix. They get the benefit of Central Michigan transfer Mike Danna who was voted CMU’s most valuable player of 2018 (66 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 7 QBH LY) and it will be interesting to see what he can add to the DL rotation. The LB unit will be one of the best in the Big Ten and they boast a pair of stars in the secondary in S Josh Metellus (2nd Team Big Ten) and CB Lavert Hill (3rd Team AA).
We expect the Wolverines to book another season allowing fewer than 20 PPG but it’s tough to call for a monster season given the loss of so many key contributors.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
The Wolverines got a great performance out of their special teams unit last season and everyone is back for duty. Their kicking game looks solid and they feature dangerous return men.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not too bad at all. They get arguably their three toughest games at home (Ohio St, Michigan St, Notre Dame) and have a pair of well-placed bye weeks.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Indiana (November 23)
This is a SANDWICH GAME parked between BIGGIE SIZE conference tilts with Michigan St and Ohio St. Oh ya, and don’t forget that the Hoosiers took Michigan to OT in each of their last two meetings in Bloomington.
Season Win Total
Over 10 -110
Under 10 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
The Wolverines look STACKED but going over 10 wins is a tall order. Pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Former President Gerald Ford started at center for the Wolverines and was voted most valuable player by his teammates on the 1934 squad.
In a game that decided the Western Conference championship in 1898, Michigan defeated the University of Chicago by a CFL-style score of 12-11. It was the Wolverines first conference title and it inspired “The Victors”, which later became the school’s fight song. Impress the ALOOF MANAGER during your next job interview with that trivia nugget.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
This is the first year of the JIM HARBAUGH EXPERIENCE that we feel they have a legitimate shot of winning the Big Ten. Dare we say, even the best chance of any team? The team is loaded and ready to fire. Our primary concerns are the depth at RB and the ability to replace so many stars in the front seven on defense. The schedule falls in their favor and it’s hard to see them playing the final regular season game vs Ohio St without a shot to win the division.
It’s hard to make money on a consistent basis betting on Michigan. You are almost always paying a “They are awesome” tax buried in the point spread. In other words, if you wanna cheer for your boys, you are gonna pay too much to do it. The Wolverines have a record of 81-47 over the past ten years (WOO!) but are a mediocre 56-69-2 (44.8%) vs the Vegas number over that time horizon.
We like this team a lot but will prefer to back them in the futures market (Big Ten winner, etc.) vs hammering them every week ATS. Pick your spots.
Want more Michigan football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/mich-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
https://michigan.forums.rivals.com/forums/football.20/
https://247sports.com/college/michigan/Board/Stadium-and-Main-103320/
https://michigan.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-fort.18/
NEWS
http://www.detroitnews.com/sports/michigan/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/130/michigan-wolverines
http://bleacherreport.com/michigan-wolverines-football
http://www.freep.com/sports/wolverines/
TWITTER
Hashtag – #GoBlue
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