Mississippi Rebels 2016 NCAA Football Preview

Mississippi Rebels 2016 NCAA Football Preview

MISSISSIPPI REBELS

Southeastern Conference – West Division

 

2015 Record – 10-3

ATS – 9-4

 

2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank

West Division #3

Conference #4

 

2015 Recap

The Rebels started out with a bang last season beating Alabama for the second year in a row which put them in the driver’s seat in the SEC West. They were upset on the road at Florida and at Memphis but were still in position to make the SEC Title game until a fourth down and forever miracle by the Razorbacks helped propel the Hogs to a 53-52 OT win. That was easily one of the most entertaining games of the year, but sadly for Ole Miss, it was their second conference loss which opened the door for Alabama. After the TCU beat down in the 2014 Peach Bowl we were very impressed by the way the Rebels handled business in the Sugar Bowl beating Oklahoma St 48-20.

 

2016 Preview

OFFENSE

Ole Miss is in transition this season on offense. The leading rusher and receiver from 2015 have departed and the offensive line needs to be rebuilt. They have one of the most inexperienced lines in the SEC and that is our number one concern with this squad. We also wonder whether or not there is an SEC-caliber RB that can carry the load.

QB Chad Kelly was outstanding last season for the Rebels (over 4,000 yards passing, 31 TD) but it will be interesting to see what he can do with new weapons and an offensive line that will likely struggle a bit early in the season. We can see this offense dropping to 30 points a game from the 40.8 they averaged in 2015.

DEFENSE

Only five starters return to a unit that gave up 386 yards per game in 2015 (9th in SEC total defense) and the “Land Shark” defense certainly had their ugly moments last year getting shredded by decent passing teams. Part of the problem has been getting to the QB – they have not registered 30 sacks in a season since 2012 (38) and have ranked only 8th, 8th and 12th the past three season in sacks per game in the SEC. The good news is that DE Marquis Haynes is back and he led the Rebels last season with 10 sacks and was 4th in the SEC in total TFL per game. The run defense was very good in 2015 and should be just as impressive in 2016. The secondary is still a worry for us but overall we think this defense is going to show some improvement.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Rebels look to be in good shape in the kicking game with their starting PK and P returning this year. They were atrocious in the return game last season – LAST in the SEC in punt return average and next to LAST in kickoff return average. That has to get a whole lot better in 2016 and we will be interested to see if they can find some weapons during the summer camp.

 

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10)          4.0

MEGALOCKS says:

There are a lot of question marks with this Rebels squad. The front 7 on defense should be very good but we think it is going to take some time for the offense to get rolling with all the personnel changes. Yes, Chad Kelly proved that he is a really good QB last season but he is not going to have the supporting cast he had in 2015. Playing Florida St, Alabama and Georgia before the end of September is not going to help a team trying to work in a lot of new faces.

Overall, we give the REBELS 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season. Hugh Freeze has been a point spread covering machine since he arrived at Ole Miss with a phenomenal 33-18-1 ATS record (65%) over four seasons in all games regardless of location. In light of this fact, it seems foolish to even think that the Rebels will not find a way to surprise ATS in 2016, but we feel this may be a year to expect a point spread regression from the Rebels.

 

Want more Ole Miss Rebels football?

 

Website           

http://www.olemisssports.com/sports/m-footbl/ole-m-footbl-body.html

Forum      

http://olemiss.247sports.com/Board/Ole-Miss-Rebels-Message-Board-Forum-59412

http://www.secrant.com/rant/ole-miss-sports/

http://www.scout.com/college/ole-miss/forums/1103-ole-miss-insiders

https://olemiss.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-grove.16/

News   

http://www.clarionledger.com/sports/ole-miss/

http://www.redcuprebellion.com/

http://bleacherreport.com/ole-miss-football

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/mississippi-rebels

Twitter                

https://twitter.com/OleMissFB              (@OleMissFB)

https://twitter.com/DanielPaulling       (@DanielPaulling)                  Daniel Paulling

https://twitter.com/HKellenbergerCL   (@HKellenbergerCL)             Hugh Kellenberger