College Football Predictions – Mississippi Rebels 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 6-6
ATS – 5-7
Well it wasn’t a real “bowl” victory, but winning the Egg Bowl by beating hated rival Mississippi St in the regular season finale had to feel just as good, or even better than a win in the SONIC TATER TOTS BOWL. Amirite? Ole Miss had every reason to shut it down late in the season but they fought to the end and won three of their final four games to finish up at 6-6. Matt Luke enters his second full season as HC and will have to work more MOTIVATIONAL MAGIC as the Rebels are ineligible for bowl season again in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #6
SEC – #10
Mississippi Rebels 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Get ‘cho popcone. There are going to be plenty of points as the Rebels have one of the best WR groups in all of college football and a QB that has proven to be really dangerous. Jordan Ta’amu picked up where Shea Patterson left off (injured after 7 starts) and had a fine 11-4 TD to INT ratio while rushing for another four TDs on the ground. WR AJ Brown was a 2nd Team AA in 2017 and hauled in 75 passes for 1,252 yards and 11 TDs. The Rebels’ top three WRs caught a combined 28 TD receptions last season and they all averaged over 16 yards a pop. The passing game will be deadly again.
They will have to find another #1 RB as leading rusher Jordan Wilkins (1,011, 9 TD) departs, but the new guys will have an experienced OL to run behind (4 returning starters). Ole Miss scored 32.8 points per game last season and we can see them banking about 35/game in 2018.
DEFENSE
This could be trouble. Ole Miss has yielded 34+ points and 245+ rushing yards in each of the past two campaigns. They return 7 starters on defense but will need to find a new pair of pass rushing DEs as both of last year’s stars (Breeland Speaks, Marquis Haynes) are off to the NFL. They will also be without their 2-time leading tackler LB DeMarquis Gates (114 tackles, 10 TFL LY). They bring back 4/4 starters in the secondary and the projected group has two juniors and a pair of seniors. Their DT duo has impressive size, but overall, Ole Miss will need to force more turnovers (13 – #13 SEC in 2017) and find replacements for the departed PENETRATION at DE. Oh ya, and things will not go well if they get steamrolled on the ground for a 3rd straight season. It feels like it will be a struggle on defense and they will be on the field a lot given how fast the offense works, and how quickly they can score.
SPECIAL TEAMS
KR Jaylon Jones bagged a TD last season and averaged 25 yards a pop. We worry about the introduction of a new PK and P.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It looks very challenging. Yes, there are some MORTAL LOCKS (***) in here (S Illinois, Kent St), but there is the SEC West docket to contend with as well as games vs Texas Tech and South Carolina.
*** Reminder. Every time the word LOCK or anything resembling LOCK is used, please note that we are being sarcastic.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – ULM (October 6). This will be their 2nd epic sandwich game to contend with as they battle the potent WARHAWKS in between road dates with LSU and Arkansas. The earlier Kent St game comes between matches with ROLL TIDE and LSU. The Golden Flashes are famous for being absolutely horrible at times, so we are a bit more concerned about the ULM game from a point spread perspective.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -135
Under 6 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. It’s really hard to see them getting to seven wins with this schedule. It’s not impossible, but that defense is going to leave fans tearing their hair out at times. Need to do more work on this one. <considers playing the OVER every week even at 80+> <just kidding, not really>
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Ole Miss last won the SEC conference championship back in 1963.
ROLL TIDE crushed Ole Miss 66-3 last season. The Rebels had outscored Alabama by a combined score of 109-102 in their previous three encounters.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the REBELS a 4.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Below Average) this season.
This is going to be a really fun team to watch. The offense could be LIGHTS OUT, and don’t run to the beer fridge for too long during commercial breaks, because that defense will be more than capable of yielding big plays. The schedule is sneaky tough, and we can see them getting upset at least once or twice along the way. The good news is that they have enough firepower to SHOCK THE WORLD themselves.
We have a hard time getting past the (on paper) weakness on defense and special teams and will prefer to pick our spots when backing the Rebels this year.
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NEWS
http://www.clarionledger.com/sports/ole-miss/
http://www.redcuprebellion.com/
http://bleacherreport.com/ole-miss-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/mississippi-rebels
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