College Football Predictions – Mississippi Rebels 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 3-9
Things started out in decent fashion with a 5-2 start, and their only losses came vs ROLL TIDE and LSU. Sadly, the floor fell out from underneath them and they lost the last five games of the year. They got smoked by Mississippi St in the Egg Bowl (L 35-3) and booked their 2nd losing campaign in the past three years.
The Rebels are bowl eligible and should be hungry in year three of the Matt Luke experience. Let’s see what’s on the horizon for these guys.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #7
SEC – #13
Mississippi Rebels 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Rebels’ offense was fantastic last season and they rolled for 511 YPG (#2 SEC) behind their fine QB Jordan Ta’amu. New OC Rich Rodriguez (yup, THAT Rich Rodriguez) has his work cut out for him as they have a new QB under center and just three returning starters. Redshirt freshman Matt Corral is expected to snag the starting QB gig and he got limited action in 2018 (22 attempts). The THROW GAME has to work with a new signal-caller AND a reloaded WR corps that loses their top-three (!) from a season ago. That trio was one of the best in college football and includes two players that were chosen in the second round of this year’s NFL draft (AJ Brown – Titans, DK Metcalf – Seahawks). The Rebels also lose their fine TE Dawson Knox who averaged 18.9 (!) YPC last year and is also off to the NFL (Bills).
We fully expect more balance on offense with Rich Rod in town and the Rebels have a solid 1-2 punch in Scottie Phillips and Isaiah Woullard back for battle. That combination tallied an impressive 1,356 yards and 16 (!) rushing TDs in 2018. We have one concern about the offense and it’s a big one. The offensive line returns only a pair of starters and gave up 32 sacks LY for the second consecutive time.
Ole Miss has scored between 32.6 and 33.9 PPG in each of the last three campaigns. We still think they can reach the 30 PPG mark despite all the new faces on board. It will help to start the season facing the defenses of Memphis, Arkansas, and SE Louisiana.
DEFENSE
At some point in recent times the LAND SHARK defense morphed into the TURD TOWN defense. Check this out, yo. Last year they were last in the SEC in total defense (483 YPG), scoring defense (36.2 PPG), rushing defense (222 YPG), and sacks (22). They were an impressive 2nd-last in pass defense. Can things get better?
We think so. The Rebels return ten starters to the stop unit and a lot of upperclassmen. In total, eleven of their top-twelve tacklers from a season ago are back for duty. New DC Mike MacIntyre has every starter back in the front-seven including leading tackler LB Mohamed Sanogo (112), and there is potential (and size) on the DL. The pass defense will probably still struggle, particularly if they can’t get more heat on the QB.
It’s reasonable to expect better performance but they are still one of the weaker defenses in the SEC.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There’s concern about the return units that were hideous last season (#13 PR SEC, #8 KR) but we like the fact that PK Luke Logan is back to dominate (22/27 FG LY), and P Mac Brown had an acceptable 35.7 yard net in 2018.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference slate features a pair of lay-ups (New Mexico St, SE Louisiana) and a couple of toughies (at Memphis, California). They miss the Gators and Bulldogs from the SEC East but have to make road trips to face LSU and ROLL TIDE.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – New Mexico St (November 9)
They will be laying a yuuuuge number and note that this bad boy is sandwiched between games with Auburn and LSU.
Season Win Total
Over 5 +120
Under 5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
Hmm. Probably won’t take a stab at this market but five wins feels very doable. Getting to six isn’t impossible.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Rebels’ last SEC Championship came back in 1963. They have never appeared in an SEC Championship Game, which is a shame since we would love to see Sandra Bullock on the sidelines. Just kidding. Not really.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
This should be interesting. Our best guess is that the Rebels pull an upset or two and lose (or cough up) a game they should win. There’s too much change on offense to make an accurate forecast, but hopefully they can have a bit more balance and stay on the field a bit longer to give the defense a bit more rest. They can get to a bowl game but can’t afford to waste many opportunities to bag victories.
Ole Miss has been a GREASE FIRE vs the point spread over the past three years compiling a record of 12-24 (33.3%) (!) vs Vegas. We can see them performing better overall vs the number but will take a neutral view for now.
Want more Mississippi football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.olemisssports.com/sports/m-footbl/ole-m-footbl-body.html
FORUM
http://olemiss.247sports.com/Board/Ole-Miss-Rebels-Message-Board-Forum-59412
http://www.secrant.com/rant/ole-miss-sports/
https://247sports.com/college/ole-miss/Board/Ole-Miss-Insiders-102425/
https://olemiss.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-grove.16/
NEWS
http://www.clarionledger.com/sports/ole-miss/
http://www.redcuprebellion.com/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/145/ole-miss-rebels
http://bleacherreport.com/ole-miss-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/mississippi-rebels
TWITTER
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