Mississippi St at LSU – College Football Predictions
The Game
Let’s see if the train can keep on rolling!
LSU has done a great job this season of taking care of business while navigating a really tough schedule. This game comes in a rough scheduling spot for the Tigers coming off a BEATING of Georgia and before the big game with ROLL TIDE (November 3rd). The Bulldogs are fresh off a bye and looking to finish the season strong under first year HC Joe Moorhead. Can they do enough to pull the upset?
The Details
LSU -6.5 Mississippi St (45.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – LSU -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: LSU 26 Mississippi St 19.5
The Match-Up:
Mississippi St offense vs LSU defense
The last time we saw the Bulldogs in action they were steamrolling a good Auburn defense for 349 (!) yards on the ground. We would like to think that sanity will prevail and that the Bulldogs will try and utilize the same game plan vs an LSU defense that is good vs the run but not a brick wall. QB Nick Fitzgerald is a battering ram and their top-2 RBs average 7.0 (Kylin Hill) and 6.9 (Aeris Williams) yards per carry. Fitzgerald has had difficulty MATRICULATING the ball down the field in the passing game (4-3 TD to INT, 49.6%) and things don’t look hopeful this week facing the deadly LSU secondary. The best they can hope for in our view is to establish the run and try and hit the odd big play to generate some points. It’s going to be tough sledding but their only shot to win this game is to just pound and pound and pound and…….
LSU offense vs Mississippi St defense
If LSU ends up winning back-to-back National Championships it won’t matter. We will hear all day about Joe Burrow’s horrible completion percentage, how HC Ed Orgeron should be fired and that LSU is a “fraud”. Sometimes NARRATIVE STREET is a powerful thing for media types to resist. But we digress. Burrow has led the team to a fine 6-1 start and has only thrown 2 (!) INT in almost 200 attempts. WR Justin Jefferson has emerged as a legit #1 WR but the real bread and butter is in the 1-2 RB combo of Nick Brossette and the FRESH PRINCE OF HELIARE who have combined for over 1,100 yards and 14 (!) TDs on the ground whilst facing a tough schedule. The Bulldogs have a rock solid defense and have only allowed 6,10,10,28,13 and 9 points in their first six games. They are also adept at achieving PENETRATION (#3 SEC sacks per game, #1 TFL per game) and the LSU offensive line is well in the bottom half of the conference in terms of preventing those disruptive plays. The Bulldogs most certainly have an excellent shot at staying in this game from start to finish if the D plays a “B+” game or better.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
LSU is looking to avenge last year’s blowout loss to the Bulldogs but will they have enough emotional juice left in the tank after last week’s big win?……Mississippi St has covered the spread in their last four meetings.
Summary
This is a tough call. We have the fair line significantly higher than the market price and almost every “power rating” we could find out there. LSU should be able to handle a one dimensional offense BUT the situational spot for the Tigers is about as bad as your can get. Add that to the fact that the Bulldogs are coming in fresh off a bye and it kinda makes you go hmmmmm……….
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: No leanage as we go to press.
Total: Lean to the under.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.