Mississippi St Bulldogs 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Mississippi St Bulldogs 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 9-4

ATS – 8-5

The Bulldogs had a fine 2017 campaign winning 9+ games for the 3rd time in four seasons. They lost back-to-back games on the road (Auburn, Georgia) by a combined score of 80-13, but they did manage to hammer LSU 37-7 and give ROLL TIDE all they could handle in a 31-24 loss. New HC Joe Moorhead comes over from Penn St to try and get these guys over the hump. Is 2018 too soon?

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

West Division – #3

SEC – #4

Mississippi St Bulldogs 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

Here we go! QB Nick Fitzgerald has one more kick at the cat in his senior season, and MEGALOCKS ANKLE INJURY INSIDERS tell us that he looks ready to go after suffering a nasty injury in the late season loss to Ole Miss. Fitzgerald threw for 15 TDs and ran for another 14 (!) in 2017. If he can stay healthy and clean up the INT (11 LY) the Bulldogs will be in excellent shape. Backup QB Keytaon Thompson guided Mississippi St to a bowl win over Louisville and would be a fine replacement if something unexpected occurs. We really wish that there was more potential at WR but we just don’t see it. Nobody on the Bulldogs roster had more than 300 (!) yards receiving in 2017. Maybe HC Moorhead can oversee some improvement from the unit.

Do NOT sleep on this running back group, yo. They return their top-3 including 1,100-yard rusher Aeris Williams, and when you combine that with the running ability of QB Fitzgerald, it spells NIGHTMARE for opposing defenses. The Bulldogs had the #2 rushing offense in the SEC (#11 FBS) and we see them having another fine season with 4 starters returning to the OL.

DEFENSE

Yes, guy.

Mississippi St was fantastic on defense last season finishing #10 in the FBS in total defense (306 yards per game), #28 in run defense and #27 in pass efficiency D. Their 20.9 points allowed was the best mark since 2011 when they yielded just 19.7 points per contest. New DC Bob Shoop has lots of TOOLS IN THE TOOLBOX with 8 returning starters including 4/4 to an excellent DL. DE Montez Sweat (1st Team SEC) in an underrated star who was the SEC co-leader in sacks whilst registering 15.5 TFL. Last season’s leading tackler S Mark McLaurin is back for duty as are 14 of the top 17 tacklers overall. We forecast another fine season on defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

It seems like an average group. They should be fine in the FG department, and PR Deddrick Thomas took one to the house in 2017. They do need to replace their excellent P Logan Cooke (NFL – JAX).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The schedule is tough but not unmanageable. If they can get past a scrappy Kansas St team in week 2, it should be clear sailing until September 29 when they meet Florida at home. Oh ya, we think the Gators’ new head coach used to coach somewhere else in the SEC?

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Arkansas (November 17). This game appears after a tough battle with ROLL TIDE and before the EGG BOWL (Ole Miss). Arkansas just might be a SURPRISE PACKAGE this season. Beware!

Season Win Total

Over 8.5 +110

Under 8.5 -130

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the over. The schedule is a bit nasty BUT there is no reason to think these guys will lose four games. At plus money (+110) it feels like a solid play.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Battle for the Golden Egg (Egg Bowl) was first played in 1901 and has been played every year since 1915 (1943 exception – WW II).

The last (and only) time the Bulldogs captured the SEC championship was back in 1941.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 8.0

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the BULLDOGS a 8.0 ATS Value Rating (Very Good) this season.

The Bulldogs are set for a really good run. They have an excellent dual-threat senior QB, great running game and stingy defense. The schedule has some tough tests, but even though they play in the SUPER GROUP OF DEATH (Big 10 East is the GROUP OF DEATH), there is no reason to think they can’t head into Tuscaloosa with a puncher’s chance of taking a lead in the division.

Mississippi St has done well in four of the past five seasons against the point spread, and it seems to us that they will be under-the-radar in 2018 with ROLL TIDE, Auburn, LSU and a sexy-coaching-change squad Texas A&M. They get on the watch list to start the season.

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