Mississippi St Bulldogs 2019 College Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Mississippi St Bulldogs 2019 College Football Preview

2018 Recap

Record – 8-5

ATS – 8-5

The Bulldogs won eight or more games for the fourth time in five years, yet in many respects, the season felt like a disappointment. They had a fine senior QB and a devastating defensive line returning for duty. The pins were set up. They couldn’t knock ’em down. Mississippi St scored 16 (!!) total points in their four SEC losses (at Kentucky, Florida, at LSU, at ROLL TIDE) and that was far too much to overcome.

HC Joe Moorhead enters his second season in Starkville. Let’s see if this squad has what it takes to do some damage in the SEC this year.

2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

West Division – #5

SEC – #8

Mississippi St Bulldogs 2019 Outlook

OFFENSE

It wasn’t fun to watch screen passes get thrown straight into the ground, or have out patterns result in balls thrown into ROW 17, but Nick Fitzgerald’s leadership and overall ability are going to be missed. Accuracy wasn’t his forte last year, but any man that can rush for over 1,100 yards and 13 TDs playing in the SEC by usually running over people is one tough dude. Fitzgerald finished his career with the Bulldogs as the program’s #3 all-time passer and #2 rusher.

The passing game should take a step forward this year with the addition of grad transfer Tommy Stevens from Penn St. Keyton Thompson (backup QB LY) will likely provide insurance. It’s unclear if there is a true #1 WR in the receiving corps but they return their top-three wideouts from a season ago. The THROW GAME should be much more effective. The rushing attack is in good shape with #1 RB Kylin Hill back for duty. Hill rushed for over 700 yards at over 6 yards a pop a season ago but it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to handle the rigors of a full season in the SEC. The depth in the RB room takes a hit with the departure of Aeris Williams (524, 3 TD LY). We love the size on the offensive line and note that the Bulldogs return three starters to the mix.

Mississippi St booked 28.5 PPG last year and we forecast a similar level of production.

DEFENSE

UH OH.

It’s going to be REALLY difficult to replace three #1 NFL draft choices. HOT TAKE. The Bulldogs were incredible on defense in 2018 and were BY FAR the #1 defense in the SEC allowing more than 50 yards fewer than the #2 team (Georgia). They gave up a mere 263 YPG (#1 FBS) and just 13.2 PPG (#2 FBS) over the course of the campaign. It just might go down in history as the Bulldogs’ best stop unit of all-time. What about the prospects for 2019?

It goes without saying that the top priority for this squad is finding a way to get solid DL play out of a unit that loses all four starters and TWO #1 NFL draft picks. The good news? There is plenty of size and raw talent. We’ll see what they have as the season moves along. The LB group is CHOCK FULL of experience and looks like one of the premier units in the SEC. Erroll Thompson was 2nd on the team in tackles a season ago (87) whilst bagging 9 TFL. The Bulldogs’ pass defense was phenomenal LY and conceded a paltry 8 (!) TD passes. They are sure to miss #1 DC Johnathan Abram (Raiders) who led the team in stops a season ago, and overall, they are inexperienced at the back-end. Finally, it will be interesting to see if the Bulldogs can achieve the same level of PENETRATION (39 sacks LY, #2 SEC) without their star-studded DL from 2018.

This has the look and feel of a “good” but not “great” defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

MEGALOCKS NATION knows we love ourselves a good kicking game and the Bulldogs appear to be set in that regard. PK Jace Christmann nailed 12/16 three-pointers in 2018 and South Alabama transfer Corliss Waitman did fine work with the Jags. The return units could use a bit more spice.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It looks good. They could easily start the season with four wins (Louisiana, Southern Miss, Kansas St, Kentucky) and get both LSU and ROLL TIDE at home. This year’s EGG BOWL battle with Ole Miss is also in Starkville.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Arkansas (November 2)

This will be their 3rd road game in four weeks and the Razorbacks should be much improved.

Season Win Total

Over 7.5 -160

Under 7.5 +140

MEGALOCKS says:

That looks about right according to our SEC WEST INSIDERS.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Bulldogs lone SEC Championship came back in 1941.

Even after losing last year’s Outback Bowl to Iowa (L 27-22), Mississippi St still boasts a 9-3 mark in their last twelve bowl appearances.

Among current SEC squads the Bulldogs have all-time winning records vs two teams: Vanderbilt (13-7-2) and Texas A&M (7-5).

MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral

The tension is PALPABLE. Can the Bulldogs remain at their current level without one of the program’s all-time QBs and legendary defensive line? Will HC Joe Moorhead be able to coax more out of the offense? Do they have the MINERALS to pull an upset or two? These are the DAYS OF OUR LIVES. Our gut feel is that they surprise on offense and take a step backwards on defense. That still puts them in decent shape to have a successful season.

There are a lot of new faces on board, but the fact remains that the Bulldogs have been a consistent ATS MACHINE over the past ten years posting a mark of 70-58-1 (55%) vs Vegas. They’ve only had one losing year vs the number since 2012 (8-5 ATS LY). We’ll take a neutral stance for now and watch for signs that the defense is better than we thought.

HAIL STATE!

Want more Mississippi St football ?

WEBSITE

http://www.hailstate.com/index.aspx?path=football

FORUM

http://forums.sixpackspeak.com/

http://www.elitedawgs.com/forum.php

http://mississippistate.247sports.com/Board/Mississippi-State-Bulldogs-Message-Board-Forum-59413

http://www.secrant.com/rant/mississippi-st-sports/

https://247sports.com/college/mississippi-state/Board/Sports-102871/

https://mississippistate.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-dawg-pound.8/

NEWS