Missouri St Bears 2026 College Football Preview
Posted June 4, 2026
2025 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 7-6
YES, GUY.
The Bears absolutely exceeded expectations in their debut FBS season. They gave up a 70-BURGER in the opener at USC but showed impressive resilence by coming back and winning five games in a row at one point during the year. Missouri St finished the regular season at 7-5 — a remarkable accomplishment for a first-year FBS squad — before dropping a close one to Arkansas State in the Xbox Bowl to finish at 7-6. That’s a season to be proud of.
Now the challenge is sustaining that success with a brand new coaching staff after Ryan Beard bolted for Coastal Carolina and took a lot of players with him to Conway.
Missouri St Bears 2026 Outlook
OFFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (CUSA):
- Scoring: 25.6 PPG (#7 CUSA)
- Total Offense: 392.2 YPG (#6 CUSA)
- Rushing: 112.5 YPG (#10 CUSA)
- Passing: 279.7 YPG (#2 CUSA)
- Sacks Allowed: 52 (#12 CUSA, 2nd worst FBS)
The biggest storyline on offense is replacing star QB Jacob Clark — the man played SEVEN seasons of college football and capped his remarkable career with 3,200+ passing yards and 28 TDs LY before heading off to join THE RAIDDDAAAAS. Filling that void is a genuine challenge. The QB battle appears close with Skyler Locklear holding a slight edge heading into fall camp — he spent time at UTEP with a combined 23-17 TD to INT mark over two seasons. Duke transfer Henry Belin IV also has a legitimate shot to be THE DUDE and new HC Casey Woods — who was the OC at SMU LY — will have a good feel for evaluating the position during fall camp.
The good news for the air attack is that the receiving corps is actually quite strong. Jmariyae Robinson is the anchor — the dood led the team in receptions LY (44-632, 7 TD) and is a legitimate playmaker to build around. New additions bring some serious size — 6-5 Witt Edwards from Vanderbilt and 6-4 Isaiah Myers from WKU who made some big plays with Charlotte in 2024 both add a different look. The real DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH might be TE Jiren Ascrin who earned 3rd Team All-CUSA honors LY with 5 TD receptions — that’s a dangerous weapon in the red zone.
The RB room needs to replace 1,000‑yard workhorse Shomari Lawrence — Ramone Green Jr gets his chance to shine as the #1 option, and BREEZY Dubar arrives from Boise State to form what should be a productive combination. The OL is legit potential problem area — zero returning starters and a major rebuilding project underway. It was a mess last season, so maybe this reconstruction is a good thing? New OC Mark Cala — who called plays at UTEP LY — has some raw materials to work with, including interior lineman KING LARGE from SMU (names have now officially JUMPED the SHARK) and a small handful of portal and JUCO additions. How quickly this group gels will largely determine the offensive ceiling in 2026. And let’s just say they can’t give up 50+ sacks again if they plan on sniffing a bowl game, yo.
DEFENSE
2025 By The Numbers (CUSA):
- Scoring Defense: 28.8 PPG (#7 CUSA)
- Total Defense: 382.8 YPG (#4 CUSA)
- Rush Defense: 153.3 YPG (#4 CUSA)
- Pass Defense: 229.5 YPG (~#5 CUSA)
- Sacks: 24 (#6 CUSA)
Those are acceptable defensive numbers from LY — #4 in the conference vs the run and #5 vs the pass — and that defensive performance was a major reason the Bears exceeded expectations. New DC Jack Curtis arrives from Auburn where he spent the last two years and faces the challenge of maintaining that level of performance with no returning starters up front.
The DL is entirely new, but the additions are intriguing — DE Josh Lukusa comes over from Miami Ohio, DT Markell Chapman was a very productive JUCO specimen at Highland Community College (the Scotties!) before not seeing the field at Iowa State LY. The highest upside piece is Kansas transfer DE Dylan Brooks, who has been dealing with injuries for two straight seasons. If Brooks is finally healthy he could be a genuine difference‑maker. No news of him practicing as we approach press time in early June.
The LB unit gets some stability from Jared Lloyd, who tied for the team lead in tackles LY and returns as the anchor of the second level. The secondary features plenty of experience at safety — a genuine team strength — and promising Kent State transfer CB Joel Boamah adds to the back end.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Yousef Obeid is a known commodity — reliable on XPs (37/38 LY) but a bit inconsistent from distance (14/22 FG, 0-3 from 50+ LY). Punter Stewart McDonald (42.7 yards per punt) is back for duty.
Schedule Analysis
Overall — Two automatic road losses in non-conference play at Texas A&M and at SMU, but they get something called Lindenwood at home to balance the ledger somewhat. The CUSA schedule is the defining challenge — WKU, Delaware, and Jacksonville St all ON THE HIGHWAY is a brutal trio of road assignments. The team they miss is MTSU which isn’t a great break as the Blue Raiders are a bottom-tier squad. The key to the season is taking advantage of a midseason stretch of three consecutive winnable games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot — vs Marshall (Sept 19)
The Thundering Herd will be JACKED UP for revenge after the Bears snuck out of Huntington with a 21-20 upset win LY. Missouri State gets this one at home which helps, but it’s still a tough spot to back the home team against a motivated Marshall squad looking to restore its pride.
Season Win Total
Market consensus – June 4
Over 4.5 +110
Under 4.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
They’re very likely to enter conference action at 1–3, and they start the CUSA proceedings with a TRIUMVIRATE of DOOM (WKU, Kennesaw St, Delaware). Then they finish up with back‑to‑back games vs Jax St and Liberty.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Missouri St University is located in Springfield, Missouri, the largest city in the Ozarks region. Springfield sits on the Springfield Plateau at the northern edge of the Ozark Highlands — one of the most scenic highland regions east of the Rockies. If you haven’t watched OZARK — the stellar Jason Bateman vehicle — stop reading this preview and go watch it immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Springfield, Missouri likes to brag that it’s where the Wild West was born — and in a way, they’re not entirely wrong. On July 21, 1865, “Wild Bill” Hickok and Davis Tutt squared up on the town square over a gambling debt and a stolen pocket watch. Hickok put a bullet in Tutt, and just like that, America had its first widely publicized quick‑draw gunfight. That’s a tasty historical TIDBIT to enjoy.
The Bears made four trips to the FCS playoffs under various coaches including two appearances under your boy Bobby Petrino (2020, 2021). Sources: Petrino was last seen riding a motorcycle with a former Arkansas VOLLEYBALL HOTTIE.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
We’re a bit torn on Missouri St’s 2026 prospects. The schedule is brutal, they’re breaking in a completely new coaching staff, and there’s major turnover across the roster. Losing star quarterback Jacob Clark is a tough blow, and the offensive line looks like a genuine problem area.
That said, there’s still some real talent scattered around the depth chart, and the defense has a chance to be better than people expect. We don’t see them reaching a bowl game, but we do think they’ll steal at least one signature win. The bigger payoff should come in 2027 once the new staff has a full offseason and recruiting cycle under its belt.
B-E-A-R-S, BEARS!