MLB tidbits – Friday, May 17
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
I play everything I say that I like in the write-ups BUT I usually put only a few in blue as recommended plays because a) if you are not playing a low juice book like we are, playing too many games will eat into your profits. Just being honest b) You need to be really conservative with your bankroll betting baseball and that is hard for most people to do. Don’t wanna see peeps to get creamed on a bad day b/c they bet too much. c) I’m busy with football and like to do this right away and then get on with the day. Sometimes I don’t decide how to play a game until later. Just DM me on Twitter or comment on the post and I can answer any Q you have. Cheers!
Tampa Bay at New York (7:05 pm)
Yankees -113 Rays +105
It’s the standard MEGALOCKS pass on the Rays games that involve and opener…..CC has been pretty decent but doesn’t go too deep into games and is still susceptible to DONGS…..Price looks about right….Yanks are just 1/2 game back nice work considering their injuries…Player notes…Garcia the hottest Ray….Torres for NY.
Colorado at Philadelphia (7:05 pm)
Phillies -116 Rockies +107
Irvin looked good in his one and only start but it’s hard to back someone with one start vs Colorado….The Rockies are trying their best to get to .500 after their crappy start…..Gray has been shaky last 3 starts (13 ER) and has allowed 8 BOMBS on the year….We have it lined at -120….Phillies bats are cold especially your boy Harper although Segura is on a 10/30 run….Blackmon has 4 TATERS L7D….Cutch is 8/17 off JG.
Chicago at Washington (7:05 pm)
Nats -156 Cubs +144
The Phillies are sttttrrruggggling and just might be keeping Washington in the race….Mad Max gets the nod and has 4 str QS….Nats just 2-7 with him on the mound….Hamels has been really good all year….Player notes….Trea Turner is back at leadoff for Wash….Rizzo back and hitting 3rd…..he is 4/15 off MS with a DINGER…..Leaning to Nats but price a bit steep may add a bit later.
Oakland at Detroit (7:10 pm)
Athletics -180 Tigers +165
Line keeps moving on up like the JEFFERSONS and there is no way you can take the Tigers and feel good about it…..They are starting to become WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE (bad) and have lost four straight whilst looking awful doing it….Montas is a decent pitcher….Norris has only reached the 6th inning in one start….Too high a price to take Oak they are 6-15 away…Player notes…Oakland was pretty cold before putting up a 17-BURGER yesterday.
New York at Miami (7:10 pm)
Mets -219 Marlins +200
Any hope of the fish scoring runs has been drastically reduced as they move back home and face deGOAT who has been very good L3 starts….Miami is 0-8 (!) in Richards’ outings….Price actually looks about right….Player notes….Conforto out for the Mets….something called J Berti is hitting leadoff today instead of Frazier….Some kind of an under makes sense but you know we no likey likey MLB unders.
Baltimore at Cleveland (7:10 pm)
Indians -166 Orioles +153
Indians’ bats came alive yesterday and your boy Kipnis ignored his 89-year old body and hit two BOMBS…Rodriguez is just-a-guy (JAG) but faces a pretty weak Os lineup….Bundy is a bit worse than JAG and has given up 11 DONGS…..We have it lined at -175 maybe a bit of value on the Tribe not on it yet….Player notes……..OS have hit 11 BOMBS L7D may be able to get to Rodriguez….Then again I suppose anyone could.
Houston at Boston (7:10 pm)
Astros -136 Red Saax +126
K KING Cole is on the mound for Houston and he has recorded 86 (!) strikeouts in 55 IP…..Only one bad start all year….Baaaastan rolls with the RICK PORCELLO EXPERIENCE and he has been pitching pretty decently after getting the season off to a rocky start….Boston bats are dangerous but Houston is on a whole different level…..Line looks about right….JDM 4 HR L7D….Everyone is hot for Houston…just kidding…not really….Diaz has been hitting great and is a sneaky scrub for those playing DFS and/or player props.
Los Angeles at Cincinnati (7:10 pm)
Dodgers -137 Reds +127
Rich “10 Day IL” Hill gets to face the Reds in the GREAT AMERICAN SMALLPARK…..He doesn’t go deep into games and has allowed 5 TATERS in 15 IP….DeSclafani has been ok but very inconsistent….Feels like runs, yo…..Will take a stab with LAD F5 TT ov 2.5 (-127 at Pinny)….They can flat out mash and get the “A” team in there vs a RHP…..Player notes…..Joc has 2 BOMBS off AD in 9 AB…..Senzel the wonder kid has been hitting well….Suarez is REALLY cooking….LAD bats lukewarm overall this is the next best thing other than Coors to get rolling.
Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:20 pm)
Braves -125 Brewers +115
Pretty good SP match-up….Fried is a tough LHP that has walked just 9 batters all season…..ERA just over 3.00…..Chacin has allowed only 36 hits in 45 IP but does walk a lot of dudes…..Brewers are rolling right now and just a 0.5 game out of first…..Line looks DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE…..Player notes…..Freeman Flowers and Markakis have good BVP….Yelich is just a MONSTER but does face a LHP today.
St Louis at Texas (8:05 pm)
Cardinals -152 Rangers +141
Mikolas has started to come around for the Cardinals and you know we love ourselves some sweet STL Cardinals action on most occasions…..Leclerc is on opener for Texas and he has been complete TRASH this season…..And we get a great hitting environment…..Smells like……<sniffs>…..RUNS….Not on anything yet think the oddsmakers have this game pegged…..Player notes…..Goldschmidt is on an 8/20 run….Rangers bats did damage vs KC and even your useless thug pal Odor had a DOUBLE DONG…..Don’t sleep on something called Calhoun for the Rangers.
update will try Tex F5 TT ov 2.5 (-112 at Pinny)
Toronto at Chicago (8:10 pm)
White Sox -116 Blue Jays +107
It’s round two of Nova vs Sanchez…..The Sox took down the Jays in the last iteration despite some local media slobbering all over themselves over the Sanchez start (6 IP….9 hits…..2 BB….5 ER…..2 DONGS)….There were 11 Ks but that is how Chicago rolls….K but hit DINGERS…..Feels like a toss-up if you like the Jays probably the “value” here but we aren’t crazy about backing either squad…..Nova is TRASH but to be fair has looked good in each of his last two starts….Player notes….Starting Sox hitting .295 off AS….Galvis and Grichuk have nice BVP.
Quick notes on last 4 games……..Card will be final at 6pm.
Pitt at SD…..two good SP….Feels like an under play somewhere we scratched it off the list LOL you know we usually avoid these games….Pitt is probably the play for value guy…..+149 we had +130.
Minnesota at Seattle….We have it lined at a pick em….Gonzales has been a rock most of the year….ERA was 3.20 on Apr 2 now it is 3.18….Perez is averaging a K per IP only allowed 4 DONGS.
KC at LA…..Keller is a crafty slop-thrower….Harvey is an 8-run inning waiting to happen but has not been total garbage…..Will look for an over play in here.
SF at Arizona…..Line looks DEAD ON BALLS ACCURATE…..Both teams should get some runs….Two JAGs going head-to-head for all the marbles.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the games!!