MLB tidbits – Monday, May 13
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
MEGALOCKS Productions presents…..The MEGALOCKS MLB MAILBAG
Not sure how long we can keep up with the MLB posts given that college football work is already in full swing…..But we will try to answer some questions over the next week or so related to MLB handicapping.
“Mega, why do you bet so many favorites? I thought you could only win at betting baseball by betting underdogs?” – Rory Breaker from across the pond.
There are different ways to bet baseball and make money. Ultimately it comes down to this: Consistently betting “value” and grinding out $$ over time. AND most importantly – betting an appropriately SMALL % of bankroll on each play so you can deal with the variance. AND make sure you get the best price possible. Shop around. It MATTERS. Big time.
Some handicappers make bank by focusing on “value” underdogs. We focus on favorites (in many different markets…..ML, F5, Team Totals, etc..) most of the time (80% or so). How do you know you are getting “value”? Well. Check your results and profits. We check-in every 100 wagers or so and see if we need to make changes to our approach. We have never had a problem making a profit BUT there are going to be losing streaks. There is no way around it. We like taking favorites most of the time because it is easier from a mental standpoint for us. Everyone is different.
So far we are hitting 59% at average odds of about -130. Looking at it from a basic standpoint you need to hit about 56.5% at those odds to break-even. So far so good. Whew.
A few of the games we like are in blue. As always if you have questions or want to know all the games we have sweet action on just connect on Twitter.
On to today………….
Baltimore at New York (6:35 pm)
Yankees -215 Orioles +197
The Os are looking like a team that could lose 100 games before September rolls around…..Just kidding…..not really….They are 14-26 after a decent start and boast a (-75) run differential….The Yanks keep winning despite the injuries and are in the middle of a THREE-WAY DOGFIGHT in the AL East that should go down to the wire…..Hess is just-a-guy (JAG) for the Orioles and has allowed 10 DINGERS in 34 IP….Loaisiga has been mediocre and not the kind of guy we want to back in the -215 range….Having said that if you want to dip into the pool better get it now probably will be quite a bit higher at game time…..Player notes…..cold and wet in NY…..Game looks like it will go after a delay BUT keep an eye on things….NY 10/30 off Hess with 4 BOMBS…..We SHOCKED the WORLD with our Chris Davis DONG ALERT yesterday he is apt to do it again…..DJL is on a 11/27 run…overall NY bats are lukewarm.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia (7:05 pm)
Phillies -140 Brewers +129
Aaron Nola is finally pitching like WHO WE THOUGHT HE WAS (really good)…..He has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last 3 starts…..Peralta is a GASCAN…..6.75 ERA….more hits allowed than IP…..12 BB and 7 BOMBS allowed in 26 wonderful IP…..Brewers are much better at home than on the road (8-10) and the Phillies are 14-7 at home….Will take a stab with Phil F5 -132 (Pinny)…..Don’t trust the Phil pen or the manager and his wacky tendencies…..Player notes….slight wind blowing in temps in high 40s…..Brewers hitting .311 off Nola (!) with 5 DONGS in 74 AB so that is a bit of a worry……Yelich has been much much much better at home but he is 7/18 off AN…..Brew Crew bats have been cool…..Phil bats woke up a bit in KC (duh?) but they have suffered a power outage L7D.
Houston at Detroit (7:10 pm)
Astros -153 Tigers +141
Houston is becoming WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE (the best team in baseball) and have reeled off straight….They are only 10-11 on the road, however and must face ace (yup, ACE) Matt Boyd who would be a legit Cy Young candidate (yup, Cy Young) at this early point in the season if he was not on Los Tigres….36 hits in 50 IP….a 63 to 11 K to BB ratio and sub-3.00 ERA…..Peacock has been rock solid outside of two bad starts…..Impossible to fade Houston right now but would want more a higher price to take the tanking Tigers…..Player notes….Chirinos has a pair of BOMBS off Boyd in 7 AB…..The entire Houston team is RAKING but are a bit different on the road….Springer had a 5/5 night yesterday and he and Bregman DOUBLE DONGED.
Los Angeles at Minnesota (7:40 pm)
Twins -147 Angels +136
Berrios got the MOOLAH for us last time out and now gets the Angels at home…..Berrios is another pitcher doing fine work….41 hits in 53 IP….51 to 8 K to BB and a 2.53 ERA….Twins are 7-1 in his 8 starts…..Your boy Skaggs gave up 7 ER in his last start vs the Tigers and the Twins should be able to get to this guy….Check status of Nelson Cruz who suffered a wrist injury yesterday….Either way this is a nice price to back the Twins ML…..Player notes…..Gonzalez is 7/12 off Skaggs but has been trash this season…..Cron is in fine form for Minny and their catchers are doing nice work at the dish Garver should get the nod today.
Cleveland at Chicago (8:10 pm)
Indians -151 White Sox +139
The BEEBS has been a nice surprise for the Indians and his performance has been clutch given the injuries they have sustained at SP…..Bieber has a 3.32 ERA and just one bad start all season….Lopez is a GASCAN with way more hits allowed than IP and 9 DINGERS allowed….The Indians have to get the offense going and the problem is a TRASH line-up that only has a few major league quality hitters….And when will your boy Ramirez heat up at the plate and stop playing like SIMPLE JACK in the infield?……White Sox bats are underrated but we still like the Tribe to get the win in this spot at a fair price <double checks notes…..triple checks sanity>……Player notes…..Chicago has just one HR in 51 AB off the BEEEEEBS……Indians are 19/58 (.328) off RL….Martin is 6/10 off Perez and DONGED two games ago.
Pittsburgh at Arizona (9:40 pm)
Snakes -168 Pirates +155
Oh, those wacky Pirates. They did some nice work and beat the Cardinals three straight times to end their series….That is very tough to do…..Massive SP edge for the Snakes as Ray takes the mound….He has only allowed 1 ER in his last two starts with a nice 18-6 K to BB ratio….Kingham is basically a scrub….Lean to Arizona but the price looks about dead on balls accurate……Player notes….Bell and Polanco are MASHING for the Buccos…..Peralta on a 10/27 binge.
Oakland at Seattle (10:10 pm)
Mariners -118 Athletics +109
Hard to argue that with the conventional wisdom and think we will be on the Mariners ML…..Fiers is not that good BUT he did have a no-hitter (!!) last start….BUT…..He is a GASCAN most days of the week…..5.48 ERA and does not miss too many bats….131 P last start….Kikuchi has been everything the Ms thought so far and has allowed just 2 ER in his last 2 starts….Player notes…..Mariners have touched up Fiers for 6 DONGS in 100 AB but are hitting a paltry .220…..As bats have been fairly cold and K Davis is coming off a minor injury….been a while since he was hot.
Thanks for reading! Enjoy the games.