MLB tidbits – Monday, May 27
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
I play everything I say that I like in the write-ups BUT I usually put only a few in blue as recommended plays because a) if you are not playing a low juice book like we are, playing too many games will eat into your profits. Just being honest b) You need to be really conservative with your bankroll betting baseball and that is hard for most people to do. Don’t wanna see peeps to get creamed on a bad day b/c they bet too much. c) I’m busy with football and like to do this right away and then get on with the day. Sometimes I don’t decide how to play a game until later. Just DM me on Twitter or comment on the post and I can answer any Q you have. Cheers!
Stuff in green notes ideas that are only for people with a higher risk tolerance and have experience with the ups and downs of betting MLB. Chronic whiners and panic-stricken peeps should look away.
San Diego at New York (1:05 pm)
Yankees -132 Padres +122
Still no line as we go to press……Padres playing better baseball and it helped playing the Jays….Strahm has not allowed more than 2 (!) ER in any start since April 1 whilst only allowed 4 DINGERS in 50 IP…..Hale has only made one appearance this year and it was four decent innings out of the pen on May 21….Yankees have a two game lead in the AL East and are 17-10 at home…We have it lined in the -150 range almost certainly will pass this game….Player notes….decent weather and 80 degrees at first pitch….Torres has five BOMBS L7D.
update – Green opens for NY
Detroit at Baltimore (1:05 pm)
Tigers -107 Orioles -101
Yes, guy. It doesn’t get much better than this. These two teams are FREAKING 3-17 combined L10 games….Norris has actually pitched pretty well this season and has posted QS in two of his last three outings….Not a big K guy but we are talking real life here and not FANTASY…..Ynoa is a legit GASCAN…..Feels like Tigers or nothing but we have it lined around -110…..Player notes….Miggy hitting well….Nunez 5 DONGS L7D.
Miami at Washington (1:05 pm)
Nats -299 Marlins +270
Washington has reeled off three straight wins and look to make it four this afternoon with MAD MAX on the mound….He has reeled off 6 consecutive QS and has only allowed six HR all season….Not an epic Scherzer start but pretty decent….Nats 2-9 in his 11 starts….Urena is slightly better than just-a-guy (JAG) and has put together three straight QS…..Allowed more hits than IP and Nats bats starting to wake up…..Line should be closer to -225 or so we almost certainly will pass as we no likey likey these games with yuuuuuge lines….Best bet may be Nats F5 TT over 2.5 (-117 at Pinny)…..Not on it yet will let you know if we take a stab…..Player notes…..Parra Taylor Rendon have decent BVP in small samples…..Marlins hitting a surprising .302 (!) off MAD MAX in 182 (!) AB….Prado is 19/41 (.463) <wtf>…..Granderson .300 with 3 TATERS.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:10 pm)
Reds -203 Pittsburgh +186
Castillo on the bump for the Reds and while he has been a bit shaky (by his standards) in three of his last four starts he is still a legit ACE and has only allowed 39 hits in 64 IP whilst tallying 78 Ks…..Kingham is PURE TRASH and it’s almost like the Buccos are throwing this game away <just kidding> <not really>……Line looks about right…..Reds F5 TT over may be worth a look will update a bit later…..Player notes…..Pitt hitting .182 off LC in 44 AB……Josh Bell gets two chances to demolish baseballs today at the GREAT AMERICAN SMALLPARK with a doubleheader on tap…..Temps in the low 80s today.
update – F5 Reds TT bumped to 3.5 at Pinny ARGH…..We are not on it but if you can get a 2.5 ov -140 or -150 it’s worth a stab.
Toronto at Tampa Bay (1:10 pm)
Rays -172 Blue Jays +158
Hate to be a PARTY POOPER again but you know we almost always avoid games with openers…..Chirinos for the Rays vs Mr Blisters for the Jays…..Toronto bats starting to heat up and that is necessary given the WASTELAND that is their pitching arsenal…..Gurriels Smoak and Rowdy have 11 DONGS combined L7D…..Austin Meadows was 4/4 yesterday with a BOMB and SB.
Chicago at Houston (2:10 pm)
Astros -177 Cubs +163
Line looks a bit high to us BUT keep in mind that the Astros are 20-7 at home and check the status of Cubs star Bryant who was injured yesterday…..ALSO….Cole has been BLOWN TO BITS in two starts but still been dominant overall…..65 IP 54 hits……100 (!!) Ks and just 17 BB…..Hamels has been really consistent all season but does face a tough lineup today…..Slight leanage to Cubbie Bear…..Astros hitting just .165 off CH in 103 AB…..Cubs hitting .215 off CG with just one TATER in 135 AB.
Kansas City at Chicago (2:10 pm)
White Sox -113 Royals +105
Both teams are just 3-7 L10 and KC is 10 games below .500 away from home…..your pal Homer Bailey is starting to become WHO WE THOUGHT HE WAS (bad) and has been torched in his last two starts….Sox have some underrated bats….Nova has allowed an UNSEEMLY 79 hits in 54 IP whilst giving up 11 TATERS…..<sniff sniff> <smells runs>….Will take a stab with Sox F5 TT ov 2.5 (-116 at Pinny) feel like they get the bats rolling at home after facing good pitching in Houston and Minnesota…..Player notes….Abreu on another HEATER…..Nova has allowed 5 SB and just 1 CS when he is on the bump….Bad news when facing the speedy Royals.
Arizona at Colorado (3:10 pm)
Rockies -110 Snakes +101
Coin FLIPPEROO game and the line reflects it…..Solid pitching match-up but as you know…..Coors Field is often the GRAVEYARD for SP…..Gray has been ok this season and has bagged QS in his last two home starts…..Greinke an impossible fade and has pitched like a LEGIT Cy Young candidate….71 IP 53 IP just 9 walks in 11 starts WHOA NELLIE….Player notes….STORY TIME has good BVP with 5 DONGS in 38 AB.
Cleveland at Boston (4:05 pm)
Red Saaax -191 Tribe +175
THE RICK PORCELLO EXPERIENCE is back in action today and we must admit he has been pretty solid since mid-April…..Rodriguez is JAG and Baaastan should be able to do some damage….Line might be a smidge high but we are not taking the Indians…..Player notes…….Santana Martin and Kipnis have good BVP.
Los Angeles at Oakland (4:07 pm)
Athletics -152 Halos +140
The As are moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE and have won six straight…..They are TOUGH COOKIES at home (17-10) and the Angels are well below .500 on the road…..Bassitt was pitching really well until getting POLEAXED by Cleveland last outing…..Cahill is JAG who has his moments….it’s just hard to ignore the 6.43 ERA, 3-7 team record when he starts and 14 TATERS allowed in just 49 IP…..As are mashing and have 13 HR L7D…..Will try Oak F5 TT ov 2.5 (-120 at Pinny)……Player notes….see above….even without K Davis As are hitting well…Wind blowing out to CF at 10mph….Trout is 4/5 off CB….As starters hitting .303 off TC in 33 AB.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:10 pm) GAME TWO
Reds -153 Pirates +140
The Buccos go with their top pitching prospect Mitch Keller in game two of the DOUBLE DIP…..Hard to know what to expect and this is a tough park in which to pitch…..Gray is another starter that has done a good job for the Reds….He has only allowed 4 DONGS and 41 hits in 50 IP…..and he is one of the few SP in all of MLB that has not been BLOWN UP yet in any start…..Line seems about right maybe a TITCH high…..Player notes…..the last player named “Sonny” was Sonny Siebert who’s big league career spanned from 1964-1975.
Milwaukee at Minnesota (7:10 pm)
Brewers -112 Twins +104
The Twins continue to put opponents in BODY BAGS and have opened up a 10 (!) game lead over the Indians…..The Brew Crew can mash and they are facing your boy Pineda who has been known to get his teeth kicked in on occasion and/or give up BOMBS…..Gio has been better than we thought for Milwaukee but is in tough vs Minny….Would have to take the Twins at + money if forced to make a play but feels like a coin flip….Player notes….Twins just scored another 17 runs while you were reading this sentence….MOOSE can solid BVP vs Pineda.
New York at Los Angeles (8:10 pm)
Dodgers -173 Mets +159
LAD haven’t lost a regular season game with CK on the mound seemingly since the CARTER ADMINISTRATION……They are also 19-6 at home and an impossible fade in that situation….deGOAT has only had one bad start in his last 5 outings and has been very good but not great (similar to MAD MAX)……Player notes….LAD hitting just .176 off JD in 74 AB….Taylor and Seager have had success in very small sample sizes…..Mets hitting .186 off CK in 86 AB.
Texas at Seattle (9:10 pm)
Mariners -123 Rangers +113
Seattle has been as horrid as the Orioles <just kidding> <not really> since their hot start and the Rangers are still hanging around much to the surprise of our AL WEST INSIDERS…..We wouldn’t back Milone at SP in almost any situation and the Rangers are stinky away from home…..Taking a seat for this one…..Player notes…..Bruce has solid BVP vs LL…..Likewise Andrus vs TM.
THANKS FOR READING AND HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY!!