MLB tidbits – Monday, May 6
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
Not an ideal betting card. There are lots of yuuuuge favorites.
San Francisco at Cincinnati (12:35 pm)
Reds -142 Giants +131
The Reds are having a hard time getting any momentum going…..The Giants refuse to roll over and are 5-5L10…Pomeranz on the bump for SF and while he has been decent it takes him a LOT of effort just to get to the 5th inning due to pitch count….DeSclafani has put together back-to-back QS….We have it lined at -150 probably will take a pass Reds seem to be snakebit…..just kidding…not really…..Player notes….Belt 4/6 with a 2B, HR off AD…..Dietrich has four BOMBS in the last 7 days….Duggar is on a 10/19 streak.
Chicago at Cleveland (6:10 pm)
Indians -246 White Sox +224
Chicago has lost 3 straight and have compiled a (-36) run differential….Now they get Cy Young candidate Bauer who should cruise BUT……He has walked 23 batters in 47 IP including 10 in his last 2 starts…? Not going to lay this price given those apparent control issues….Nova is PURE FILTH and has allowed 15 (!!) ER and 22 hits in his last two starts (just 10 IP)……Best idea is to play Cleveland RL or TT over but we are taking a seat for this one…..Player notes….Alonso is 5/14 off Bauer with a DONG…..Abreu is still on FIRE…..Kipnis is 4/6 off Nova with a 2B and HR….Santana 5/13 with a pair of 2B and a DINGER…..Santana is also their hottest hitter right now.
Seattle at New York (6:35 pm)
Yankees -143 Mariners +132
Seattle broke a long losing streak yesterday and went BANANAS vs Chicago posting a 10-cack win….Yankees just keep winning and the crafty CC takes the mound…..He is good for a decent 5-innings then the suspect NY middle relief….If you like NY play the F5…..King Felix has been better than just-a-guy (JAG) so far (just 4 BB all season) but the NY bats should be able to get to him…..We have it lined at -140 don’t think we will get involved. Player notes….Gardner has good BVP….14/37 with a BOMB vs FH…..E5 is the hottest Mariners’ bat….Sanchez and Torres are hitting well for the Yanks.
Boston at Baltimore (7:05 pm)
Red Saaaax -160 Orioles +148
Boston came through for us wikkkkid haaaard yesterday when they kicked the crap out of Chicago and now they get the Orioles…..The bats are on fire but we do wonder about SP Smith who is making his first start since 2016 (1 IP this year)…..Means has been one of the only bright spots for the Os but he must deal with a great lineup that is smoking HOT…..Definite lean to the Saaax but not on it yet….If you agree you should probably hit it now cannot imagine the line staying where it is by the time 7pm rolls around……Even with a scrub SP it seems to us that Boston should be -175 or higher….Player notes….In the small sample success department JDM is 2/2 off Means with a 2b and DONG…..the entire team is raking and Chavis is a MONSTER right now….Smith Jr is on a 9/20 streak for the Os.
Update – playing Bos/Balt ov 4.5 -151 F5 innings. Would play up to 5.
Minnesota at Toronto (7:07 pm)
Blue Jays -113 Twins +105
Minnesota is a legit playoff-caliber team in our view and they get to face the Blue Jays tonight in the start of a series that should help them keep rolling…..The bad news is that they get our boy Stroman on the mound….and while we are not STRO SHOW Kool-Aid drinkers…..we will say that he has pitched very well all season outside of his last start…..We like the fact they he has not allowed a single DONG all year…..Perez gets the start for the Twins and he has been a nice surprise, particularly in his last outing when he shutout the Astros (!) over 8 IP…..Blue Jays sputtering a bit and are starting to become WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE…..Lean to the Twins but this is the Jays best SP by far right now so will pass….Player notes…..Cruz is 6/11 off Stroman….He is also their hottest hitter….Hmmmm….Smoak is 8/20 off Perez….Rowdy and Grichuk are the hottest Jays.
Washington at Milwaukee (7:40 pm)
Nationals -104 Brewers -104
Very short price for the Nationals and we kinda get it to be honest….The Brewers are one of the best hitting teams in baseball and Yelich is back and better than ever (went UPPER TANK last night)….Chacin is JAG for the Brewers but the Nats lineup is disgusting given all the injuries….The Yankees can win with scrub hitters because they are smart…..not so sure about the Nats backups….MAD MAX has allowed more hits than IP and is just 4/7 in QS…..Taking a pass on this game ….Player notes….Would not use Max in DFS tonight not saying just saying…..Yelich is 10/26 off MS with three DINGERS….Eaton has a pair of triples off JC in 14 AB…..Braun is in a good zone for Milwaukee.
Philadelphia at St Louis (8:05 pm)
Cardinals -121 Phillies +112
The Cubs served notice that they are VERY MUCH interested in giving the Cardinals a run for their money and St Louis will be glad to get home and face Philly…..then again that Phillies lineup is nasty and should give SP Mikolas fits….He did well last start but he has been pretty mediocre overall this season…..Velasquez has an ERA below 3 and a decent basic stat line…..22 hits in 26 IP…..10-29 BB to K…..Just 4 DINGERS allowed….Lean to Philly but would want +130 or more the Cards are a team we really like and they are especially spicy at home (12-4)….Player notes…..Harper is 4/7 off MM with a HR….Cards bats are a bit quiet only 4 DONGS as a team over the past 7 days…Hoskins continues to crush.
Miami at Chicago (8:05 pm)
Cubs -255 Marlins +232
The Cubbies have won 7 straight and now own a 0.5 game lead in the division…..Hamels has been excellent this season BUT we will note that after walking 3 (!) batters in his first four games he allowed 9 walks in his past two outings….The Marlins roll with Alcantara whose performance has slid since his first two outings…..We expect an average performance with considerable downside given the bats he will be facing…..Lean to Cubs RL but it’s too expensive for us….Player notes…Martin Prado has excellent BVP vs Hamels in a large sample size….The Marlins bats are ice cold…..The Cubs are hot with Rizzo and Contreras doing particularly well over the past week.
Kansas City at Houston (8:10 pm)
Astros -273 Royals +247
No need to spend too much time here. Cole has been a TOUR DE FORCE this year other than one start in which he was BOMBED by Texas…..Junis is pretty rotten and the Royals struggle on the road….Price just too high we generally avoid games over -200……Player notes….Correa is 3/5 with a DONG off Junis and is currently in fine hitting form…..Owings is 5/12 off Cole with four 2B….Soler is in a zone now for KC…..Bregman is MASHING as is Brantley.
New York at San Diego (10:10 pm)
Mets -108 Padres +100
Yes, guy. Excellent pitching match-up as the WONDER KID Paddack faces DeGrom. Jake had three straight questionable starts and then looked very good last outing vs the Reds dealing 7 shutout innings AND over 100 P……Paddack has only allowed 14 hits in 33 IP (wtf) but the downside is that he is on a pitch limit this year so unless he is incredibly ruthless and/or efficient he will not likely see the 7th inning…..Pen is good but a bit bumpy lately…..Like the look of the unders in this spot….Game under….F5 under….Team totals under….Not sure how to play it yet. If we do anything will advise…..and as you may know we only make one play per game so as not to get smoked on a bad read. Player notes…..Reyes, Machado and the HOSE MAN are hitting well for the Padres….Mets bats are colder than ice.
Atlanta at Los Angeles (10:10 pm)
Dodgers -157 Braves +145
Definitely see some value with HOTLANTA in this spot but just a lean at this point….Long trip out west after playing extras in Miami yesterday (Congrats MEGALOCKS 10,008 STAR BRAVES PERFECT STORM LOCK CLUB) and the Dodgers are a tough out at home under any circumstances….Gausman has been ok but the LAD lefties should be able to ROCK him at some point….Keep an eye on the status of GOAT Bellinger who missed the last two games…..We are not big Buehler fans and seems to us as being JAG……Player notes…..Atlanta bats are relatively cold but playing in Miami will do that to you…..Nobody going nuts lately for LAD been a team thing lately…Chris Taylor hitting well seemingly out of nowhere.
Enjoy the games and THANKS for reading! As of 3:53pm only one play (in blue) will update by 6pm if any additional sweet action but this may be a small card supplemented by a DFS donation.