MLB tidbits – Saturday, May 11
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
Seattle at Boston (1:05 pm)
Red Saaaax -181 Mariners +166
Seattle is slowly becoming WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE (now below .500) whilst the Red Saaax are raking WIKKKKID HAAAAAARD and are 8-2 in their last 10 games (Mariners 2-8)….Porcello has put together 4 good starts in a row and King Felix has stunk in his last 2 outings….We have the game lined at -175 and will take a pass…..It’s gotta be Baaastan or nothing amirite???…..Player notes….JBJ has good BVP….Does he finally start hitting???……E5 is 13/43 off RP with five 2B and 3 DONGS…..Moreland and Devers hitting well….E5 has four DINGERS L7D.
Detroit at Minnesota (2:10 pm) GAME ONE
Twins -157 Tigers +145
The Twins are ON FIRE and have the best record in MLB…..They are an impossible fade right now BUT Los Tigres have a big SP edge….Turnbull has been great and has allowed just 2 ER in his last 4 (!) starts….Pineda is a GASCAN…..Line feels a bit high but can’t back Detroit…..If you wanna roll with the Tigers please stick to F5 for the sake of your emotional health….Player notes….Wind blowing in from right at 11-12 mph…..Miggy is older than dirt (still a GOAT) but is 6/13 off MP….Garver and Polanco hot for Twins….Tigers bats….meh.
Pittsburgh at St Louis (2:15 pm)
Cardinals -174 Pirates +160
The Buccos did it last night after getting pasted on Thursday….Lyles has been solid (32 IP 26 hits….just 3 DONGS allowed….2.31 ERA) and Mikolas has been really good in 3L4 starts….Wind blowing in a bit and temps in low 50s….Line should be closer to -160 according to our NL CENTRAL INSIDERS….Not enough value to pounce….Interested a bit in STL F5 TT ov 2.5….Not on it yet…Probably can’t do it Lyles just too good right now…..Player notes….Goldschmidt 10/20 off JL and he is starting to hit again after 3 pretty bad weeks….Ozuna is HOT and has good BVP…..Frazier has solid BVP and DONGED last night to lead off the game.
Cleveland at Oakland (4:05 pm)
Indians -129 Athletics +119
Gonna roll with Indians ML and our boy Bauer even tho he has been inconsistent (but still good)…..37 hits in 52 IP and 62 Ks….Still walking too many guys for our liking but the price is right around -130….Indians also have slight pen edge….Brooks is just-a-guy (JAG) and has allowed 8 DINGERS in 31 IP….Tribe just 9-10 away and As are 13-9 at home….Player notes…..As hitting .311 off TB but just 1 DONG in 71 AB……KD is 5/12 off Bauer but did not play again yesterday and is nursing an injury…..Chapman hit a walk-off HR last night….Tribe bats warming up just a tad.
UPDATE – SP change for Oakland to an opener (Hendrixxxxx). Reloaded at -122. Original wager was cancelled.
Milwaukee at Chicago (2:20 pm)
Cubs -139 Brewers +128
Tough call..These two squads are a combined 16-4 (!) in their last 20 games and the Brew Crew has won 7 straight including yesterday’s 7-CACK win…..Davies has been getting it done somehow someway (1.56 ERA) and Hamels (unlike your boy Yu Darvish) is actually GOOD (Cubs 5-2 in his 7 starts)…..Price is sharp….Would want +150 to take the Brewers…..Player notes….Slight wind blowing in with temps in low 50s….Kris Bryant owns Davies (14/38 with 5 SBH including 2 BOMBS)….Russell, Contreras and Rizzo all have good BVP…Braun has 3 DONGS off Hamels and Perez is 7/14 off him.
Chicago at Toronto (3:07 pm)
Blue Jays -156 White Sox +144
Nothing like Toronto fans and media…..over four decades of SOLID FUN…..Peeps already complaining about Vlad Jr’s performance in his first few weeks in MLB after killing the Jays brass for violating his human rights and not bringing him up to the SHOW sooner…..It just gets better every day <takes another shot of vodka>…..Stroman has been BAD in his last two starts and finally gave up a DONG (2)…..Nova had a good start out of nowhere last outing (DFS slate KILLER) but is TRASH….White Sox 8-11 away and Jays 8-11 at home….Slight lean to Jays but this game stinks will watch and hope Toronto can get a W…..Player notes…..Galvis 6/13 off Nova….Abreu 6/19 off STRO SHOW and he has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season.
Los Angeles at Baltimore (4:05 pm)
Angels -134 Orioles +123
Epic (NOT) SP match-up with a pair of GASCANS…..Harvey is JAG at this point with an ERA hovering near 7 and just 22 K in 36 IP…..Bundy has actually been NOT HORRIBLE but will have to deal with an Angels batting order that is starting to get it’s SEA LEGS…..Will take a peek at some of the totals (F5 etc..) and advise but we are not on anything here yet…..Player notes….Trout is 4/6 off Bundy with two BOMBS and he is heating up….Simmons is 4/5 and he had a big game yesterday.
Yankees at Rays (6:10 pm)
Rays -148 Yankees +136
You guys know we usually skip the Rays’ games unless they have an actual SP going to the bump…..CC just keeps throwing CRAFTY SLOP up there and should be able to give the Yanks a solid 5 innings…after that the Rays have the pen edge….Lean to TB but will not be on this bad boy…..Player notes…..Kiermaier has two BOMBS off CC in 16 AB….Austin Meadows got back in the line-up yesterday and had a nice game…..Yanks getting healthier….Hard to think they will do much in this stadium today.
Miami at New York (7:10 pm)
Mets -286 Marlins +259
The Marlins struggle to get every win they can BUT they are still scrappy and undervalued in our eyes from a Vegas perspective….Sadly we do not want to play crummy teams all year and end up with value bubbling to the top in the form of $4 once we hit October…..So this game is a pass for us…..deGrom DeGOAT on the mound for the Mets that is all you need to know. Total pass for us….Mets bats woke up yesterday…..Somebody needs to figure out how to get Frazier out.
Philadelphia at Kansas City (7:15 pm)
Phillies -129 Royals +119
Eflin has been fairly FILTHY in his last two starts allowing just 1 ER in each…..5.21 ERA away (1.17 home) is a bit concerning but he is in fine form overall….Keller has been good for KC (3.99 ERA, just 4 DONGS allowed) but 28 BB in 47 IP is a bit worrisome vs the Phillies….Phil just 7-9A and KC 5-5 L10 and will fight you for 9 innings…..Lean to Philly have it lined closer to -150…..Not on it yet may add. Player notes…..Soler the hottest Royal…..Phils just 3 BOMBS L7D.
San Diego at Colorado (8:10 pm)
Rockies -121 Padres +112
Lean to the Rockies in this spot….Bats are SMOKING right now….Gray has been decent (less hits than IP, 4.22 ERA….18-43 BB to K) and Lucchesi is transforming into JAG and Rockies are nasty vs LHP….We normally stay away from the Coors games but tempted….stay tuned……Player notes….Arenado is in BEAST MODE along with several other Rockies and is 5/13 off JL….Myers is a GOAT-like 11/28 off JG with a pair of DINGERS.
Detroit at Minnesota (8:10 pm) GAME TWO
Twins -193 Tigers +177
Not looking at this game. Something called Soto vs something called Stewart. Who knows? Sorry. LOL.
Texas at Houston (8:10 pm)
Astros -283 Rangers +256
Verlander. Now Cole. RUH ROH. Cole has been outstanding other than one start vs……wait for it….Texas…..that game was in Arlington…..It’s either Houston or nothing these games are the ones we always scratch off our list first….Player notes…..Astros bats are HOT….Altuve left the game with an injury yesterday…..Gurriel is 7/13 off Chavez…Brantley has been a beast and has 3 BOMBS off Chavez in 12 AB…..Gallo has 3 BOMBS off GC in 16 AB.
Atlanta at Arizona (8:10 pm)
Braves -115 Snakes +106
Acuna got us last night and it turned out to be a 890,000 STAR MEGALOCKS BUNKER BUSTER BOMB loser…..Argh we always pay when fading the Braves….Today’s game feels like a toss-up…The teams are very even in terms of talent…..Gausman has been disappointing and the Braves are just 3-4 in his starts….Kelly got rocked last start and has been mostly JAG this year……Game feels like a coin flip….Some kind of over play probably makes sense….Player notes….Snakes hitting just .190 off KG in 58 AB…..Acuna took the leadoff spot last night and hit the go-ahead DONG in the 8th inning.
Cincinnati at San Francisco (9:05 pm)
Reds -127 Giants +117
Stop us if you have heard this 1,000 times….We lean to the Reds….They got the COLD HARD CASH for us yesterday and DeSclafani has been solid (28 hits in 7 IP, 14-44 BB to K)…..Samardzjachjamardja is JAG for the Giants BUT has been pitching above that mediocre level this year and we have to respect that…..He could be a tasty addition for someone (Boston? Yankees?) as we approach the trade deadline…..Was hoping to get the Reds closer to -105 will have to pass…….Player notes….Belt is 5/7 off AD with a BOMB…..Votto is still choking up to the barrel after one strike to try and carve a blooper over the shortstop’s head.
Washington at Los Angeles (9:10 pm)
Dodgers -132 Nats +122
Whoa, Nellie. This is interesting…….The Dodgers are close to unbeatable at home (16-5) and boy would we LOVE to see a game at that venue….Serious question…..Traffic yo, do you need to get there five hours before and tailgate???…we digress…..We are not big Buehler fans but he has done enough this year and LAD are 5-2 in his 7 starts….Mad Max is NOT WHO WE THOUGHT HE WAS (more hits allowed than IP; but nice 72-8 BB to K ratio)……The Nats are just 1-7 in his 8 starts….Think about that…..Can the Nats rise up and give this dude a few runs?? Lean to the Nats but only F5 their BP is TRASH……Player notes…..JOC hit TWO BOMBS last night…..Nats bats are fairly cold…Rendon has not managed to heat up since returning from injury…..LAD hitting .161 off MS in 62 AB with just one DONG.
UPDATE – ON NATS F5 +123
Thanks a ton for reading! Enjoy the games.