MLB tidbits – Saturday, May 18
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
I play everything I say that I like in the write-ups BUT I usually put only a few in blue as recommended plays because a) if you are not playing a low juice book like we are, playing too many games will eat into your profits. Just being honest b) You need to be really conservative with your bankroll betting baseball and that is hard for most people to do. Don’t wanna see peeps to get creamed on a bad day b/c they bet too much. c) I’m busy with football and like to do this right away and then get on with the day. Sometimes I don’t decide how to play a game until later. Just DM me on Twitter or comment on the post and I can answer any Q you have. Cheers!
Stuff in green notes plays that are only for people with a higher risk tolerance and have experience with the ups and downs of betting MLB…..Breast-feeding Twitter whiners not allowed LOL.
Tampa Bay at New York (1:05 pm)
Rays -121 Yankees +112
Yes, guy. The Yankees have been on FIRE (8-2 L10) and took the lead in the AL East last night in dramatic fashion…They now lead the Rays by half a game…..The only thing that could ruin their chemistry is trading for your boy Stroman…..SNELLZILLA has shown flashes of brilliance and been a K MACHINE (62 in 43 IP) but he has only pitched more than 6 innings once and the Rays are just 3-5 in his starts…..Tanaka has been really consistent and gets overlooked b/c he is not a great fantasy SP…..Line looks about right…..Player notes….The SANCHIZE is 4/11 off Snell with THREE BOMBS.
Toronto at Chicago (2:10 pm)
White Sox -140 Blue Jays +129
SHOCKER. As predicted 43,000 times your pal Sanchez left the game again last night with blisters. They might have been piled on top of his broken fingernails……The number one ability is AVAILABILITY and that is why the Jays cannot think about him in their long term plans even though he is a good dude and can still pitch…..What does that have to do with today?…..Well the Jays had to dip into their bullpen early and they are already really thin at SP….Can we trust Richard to go deep into the game???…..Sox bats appear to be in a good spot especially the good RH…..Giolito has been excellent in his last two outings (14 IP 1 ER 16 K) and we would like to see him reach his potential over the course of the season….Maybe a legit #2???……Waiting on the line….Stay tuned…..Player notes….Vlad Jr hit another BOMB last night…..Jays have not hit a DONG off Giolito in 30 AB.
Update – Jays starting a random left-handed knuckleball pitcher today. Gonna try Chi F5 TT ov 2.5 (-127 at Pinny)
St Louis at Texas (4:05 pm)
Cardinals -126 Rangers +117
Texas got off to a hot start yesterday (Congrats MEGALOCKS PERFECT STORM F5 TEAM TOTAL LOCK CLUB) and gave the Cards a taste of what it is like playing in Texas if your SP is strrrrugggglinnnnng…..Jurado is probably gonna get 1-2 IP as an opener…..Hudson has been pitching better recently but he has still allowed 53 hits 20 BB and 9 TATERS in just 41 IP…..Ruh Roh…..Smells like…….<sniffs>…..more runs….Will check out the totals, team totals etc….and report back soon…..Player notes….Forsythe Calhoun and the Menacing Midget Odor are all hitting well…..Ozuna in a 2/25 run and that is just one reason why the Cards are slipping….2-8 L10.
Colorado at Philadelphia (4:05 pm)
Phillies -171 Rockies +158
Nola has been a disappointment for the Phillies but the team is still in first place…..Nola has allowed 52 hits in 46 IP to go along with 20 BB and 9 DINGERS….That will lead to a 4.86 ERA….Senzatela is just-a-guy (JAG) but I guess technically that makes Nola JAG given the way he has pitched so far…..Line seems a bit high not crazy about backing the Rockies will that SP on the mound…..Player notes…….Phil 9/41 off AS (.220) with 0 HR…..Rockies hitting .338 (!) (26/77) off Nola…..Blackmon is 6/10 off AN with three 2B and a DINGER….He is also hitting well L7D.
Los Angeles at Cincinnati (4:10 pm)
Dodgers -140 Reds +129
Buehler has fired off 2 str QS (14 IP 3 ER 1 BB) and it pitching much better than he did earlier in the campaign….The Reds are just 1-7 in Mahle’s starts but he has done enough to have better results (49-9 K to BB in 45 IP, 3.97 ERA)…..LAD an impossible fade playing in this ballpark (or most ballparks) as evidenced by the DONG FEST that was on display last night…..Reds are better at home but need to get the bats cooking, yo….Player notes……..Reds do not have an XBH off WB in 29 AB…..LAD hitting .375 (12/32 off TM)……Leanage to LAD not on it yet…..Also looking at F5 TT.
update – taking LAD ML (-140)
Baltimore at Cleveland (4:10 pm)
Indians -149 Orioles +137
Line looks a bit low BUT the Os get their best starter going today (Means; 2.33 ERA; two str QS) and something called a Plutko is getting rolled out for the Tribe….No sweet action on this game…….Player notes…..Tribe bats heating up esp Lindor and Kipnis….Ramirez still stinks….You want SNEAKY DONGS the Os have 11 L7D.
New York at Miami (4:10 pm)
Mets -116 Lopez +107
Good for Miami. They SHOCKED THE WORLD yesterday and beat the Mets with deGOAT on the mound……They scored 8 (!) runs, yo…..Matz gets the call for the Mets and has not pitched since May 3…..Alert MEGALOCKS readers will know that we almost never play a team with a SP that has had even a brief HIATUS….Lopez had a season of decent work BLOWN TO BITS last outing when he gave up 10 ER to ………….wait for it………The METS……He has a good 42-11 K to BB ratio and has looked decent in all three starts…..We had it lined at -130 but gonna pass and see how Matz looks….Player notes……..Prado is 6/13 off Matz…..Thanks to last game….Mets are hitting 10/24 off Lopez…..Conforto is out.
Oakland at Detroit (4:10 pm)
Athletics -107 Tigers -101
Los Tigres are sinking like the TITANIC losing 5 straight and they now the 2nd worst team in terms of run differential (-86)…..Maybe our Los Tigres season win total is looking good???…..<grabs popcorn>…..The good news is that our boy Boyd is on the bump and he has been excellent….41 hits in 54 IP…..65-13 (!) K to BB….only 5 TATERS allowed…..Mengden allowed 4 hits and 4 BB in 5 IP is his first start….Massive SP edge to Detroit but keep in mind if you wanna roll with Los Tigres only take them F5….We are still considering our options……..Player notes…….Grossman is 7/24 off MB with a pair of BOMBS…..Dixon is the hottest Tiger…..K Davis is back and KRUSHING it.
Update – Tigers F5 worth a look.
Houston at Boston (7:15 pm)
Astros -115 Red Saaax +106
Corbin Martin looked GOOD in his first start for Houston but now gets the ultimate challenge (other than facing his own team)…..Baaastan at Fenway….Velazquez just gets through a few early innings and then turns it over to the pen….although he did go 5 IP last outing……Feels like a coin toss not much value….Player notes….JDM four TATERS last 7 days….Ditto for Springer….The Astros are just generally on fire and winners of nine straight.
Chicago at Washington (7:15 pm)
Nats -136 Cubs +125
That smell wafting through the valley is the STENCH of the Nats bullpen that is in need of new bodies before the season can be declared officially DEAD….Strasburg takes the hill and has been his usual self for the most part…..57 IP 44 hits 75-16 K to BB…..But of course the Nats are just 4-5 in his starts…..Lester has not allowed an ER in any of his last 3 starts….Cubs are simply the better team….Slight edge to SP on Nats…Line should be closer to -120/-125 gonna pass…..Player notes….Turner returned yesterday for Wash….Nats have one DONG off Lester in 133 AB…..Jay Hey is 15/37 off SS with four 2B and a HR.
Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:20 pm)
Braves -115 Brewers +106
It took the Braves a bit to get rolling yesterday until they OPENED UP ONE TIME with 9 runs in the 7th….Their pen is putrid but they managed to hold onto the 12-run lead and win 12-8…..Gausman is legit (42 IP 35 htis 46-17 K to BB) but faces a Brew Crew team that can kill RHP….Chase Anderson will get you 4-5 decent innings….Feels like price is a bit short….Gonna think about it but taking a seat for now….Player notes…..Freeman is 4/10 off CA with a bomb and he went DEEEEEP yesterday into the salad bar of a restaurant….Moose and Cain have good BVP in small sample sizes.
Pittsburgh at San Diego (8:40 pm)
Padres -146 Pirates +134
Buccos put the ball in the hands of something called a Montana DuRapau who has just 4 IP this season…..Margevicius is JAG and hasn’t had a really good outing in over a month….Line looks about right and as you know never undersell the wacky Pirates…..ARRRRRRGH…….Player notes….Machado .400 L7D and Reyes has 4 TATERS…..Bell hitting like a MADMAN for Pitt.
Kansas City at Los Angeles (10:07 pm)
Angels -169 Royals +155
Royals a tough sell on the road and Junis is one of our fav JAG FADES…..Canning is a young pup who has been MEH so far….14 IP in three starts…..6 BB and an alarming 4 DONGS allowed….Feels like there is an over in here somewhere will look further….Player notes…..Angels hitting .379 in a small sample off JJ….Royals have are DONGLESS in their last 7G…..LaStella raking right now for LA.
San Francisco at Arizona (10:10 pm)
Giants -113 Snakes +104
Definitely see “value” with the SNAKES as they are a much better team….The issue lies with Godley who has pretty much been HOT GARBAGE…..We still have it lined at Snakes -115 even with MAD BUM on the bump for SF…..Taking a pass for now given we cannot back a team led by the Godley Train….Player notes…..Arizona is DONGLESS (!) off MB in 100 AB…..Crawford and Posey have decent BVP in small samples.
Minnesota at Seattle (10:10 pm)
Twins -126 Mariners +116
Gonna try some sweet Twins ML action with FRENCHY LEBLANC on the bump for Seattle…..21 hits 5 BB and a pair of DINGERS in 16 IP…..Berrios is a legit Cy Young contender and while the Mariners have pop….We get the SP edge and the pen edge…..Player notes….Ms have one BOMB in 56 AB vs JB and are hitting .179…..Marwin has two DONGS in 7 AB vs WL.
Thanks for reading enjoy the games!!