MLB tidbits – Saturday, May 4
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
NOTE – SETTLING IN TO WATCH THE KENTUCKY DERBY…..THAT’S ALL FOR ANALYSIS – DM ON TWITTER IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS…….FULL CARD ANALYSIS TOMORROW!!
Minnesota at New York (1:05 pm)
Yankees -127 Twins +118
Two good teams go at it again (combined +61 run differential) unless the rest of the Yankees get injured overnight in a freak blimp accident, in which case they will not be able to field a team….Paxton was the latest injury last night hope he is ok…..Odorizzi has only allowed 3 ER over his last 3 starts….Happ has 3 straight QB BUT keep in mind kids that his ERA (limited sample) is 1.96 on the road and 8.16 at home…….Line looks about right gonna pass. Player notes….Maybin is 5/9 with a double and a DONG vs Jake…..Cruz is 10/24 (.417) vs JAH….Gary Sanchez has 4 HR in the last 7 games.
St Louis at Chicago (4:05 pm)
Cubs -128 Cardinals +118
Wacha Wacha Wacha has been decent for the Cards so far (4/5 “good” starts as defined by the MEGALOCKS MLB ADVANCED STATS INSIDERS) but faces a red hot Cubs team that has won 5 straight (8-2 L10) and have now bumped their run differential to +42…..We will never understand the non-stop worship of your boy Yu Darvish who has allowed 7 DONGS and yielded 22 BB in 28 IP….Weather should not be an issue (light wind)…..Line looks about right….May be a few more runs scored than expected……Player notes…..Check this out, yo….Rizzo is 20/42 off Wacha with 3 DINGERS…..Kris Bryant has 8 XBH in 34 AB vs MW….The SCHWAB and Conteras have also lit him up DEEP two times…..Interestingly enough Rizzo is WHITE HOT….The Cards only have two DINGERS as a team over the last week.
Kansas City at Detroit (4:10 pm)
Tigers -130 Royals +120
Another game that looks perfectly lined…..Pitching match-up is not as bad as you might think….Bailey and Ross are both just-a-guy (JAG) material but to be fair each dude has been ok this season and both have allowed fewer hits than IP…..Royals a gross 3-11 away….Player notes…No interesting BVP to note….Bats on both teams not cooking….Dozier and Soler the hottest bats.
Seattle at Cleveland (4:10 pm)
Indians -188 Mariners +173
Line is about 20 cents too high in our estimation BUT it’s hard to back a team that is CRATERING like the Mariners….Losers of 5 straight and are now a MIND-BENDING 0-11 vs teams .500 or better…..Leake is total TRASH (45 hits in 34 IP, allowed 10 DINGERS already) and Carrasco only has 1 QS in 6 outings….Mariners will need to get to CC to make this a game because it feels like Leake will get smashed again…..Player notes….Martin is 6/11 off Leake….Jay Bruce has two BOMBS off CC in 12 AB….Mariners bats have gone cold and the Indians have yet to get hot.
Atlanta at Miami (6:10 pm)
Braves -161 Marlins +148
HOTLANTA has to be happy with the way our boy Soroka is pitching….13 hits allowed in 16.2 IP over his first three starts….good 6-21 BB to K ratio and no DONGS allowed…..Trevor Richards has been getting worse as the season has gone along and has not even pitched that well in the gigantic home park…..Lean to the Braves was hoping for something closer to -145….Not on this one yet will advise….Player notes…Keep in mind that Donaldson is back for the Braves (until his 98-year old calf muscles give in again) and he looked good in the box last night….Granderson and Alfaro are mildly hot.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (7:05 pm)
Rays -167 Marlins +154
OPENER time for the Rays as they will start with Stanek (solid – but gave up 3 runs last start) and then go with Beeks (hopefully) or Chirinos…..Gonna take a stab with TB ML in a game we have lined at -200…..Orioles are just PURE FILTH and getting worse….Rays have the best record in baseball and can hit and pitch well innings 1-9+….Player notes….Garcia is 5/9 with a HR vs Bundy…..Kiermaier is 4/11 with a pair of BOMBS off DB…..Rays bats a bit cool…Orioles…..well it’s the Orioles.
Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 pm)
Phillies -116 Nationals +107
Line looks about right to us maybe a little bit low….Arrieta has 5/6 QS but had his worst start of the season last outing…..Same with Corbin who was rolling until his last start (4 BB, 6 ER)…..Nats lineup is pretty disgusting these days feels like Phillies or nothing we are almost certainly not on this game….Player notes…..Segura is 5/8 off Corbin and he DONGED last night…..Fat Adams is 8/24 off JA….Hoskins is mashing for the Phillies.
MORE TO COME………………..