MLB tidbits – Sunday, April 28
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision. GL and enjoy the games!
Miami at Philadelphia (1:05 pm)
Phillies -157 Marlins +146
They came through for us again yesterday but may have to take a step back from Philly today….This is a JAG (just a guy) SP match-up with Eflin (not good since his last two starts) and Lopez (who actually hasn’t been horrible). Eflin took it on the chops at Miami earlier this season….Lopez only allowed 2 ER in his last pair of starts over 11 IP…..Philly 10-5 home….Miami 3-8 away…..Still lean to the Phillies but gonna pass….Have the fair line around -170.
Tampa Bay at Boston (1:05 pm)
Red Saaaaax -152 Rays +140
“Hey let’s bet against Tampa Bay!”……Not usually a good idea as we said yesterday…..Once again the price looks a bit steep to back Baaaastan……The Ks are going up for Sale but he has been very inefficient this season throwing way too many pitches…..Only one outing over 5.0 IP…..We don’t need advanced analytics to tell us he is not pitching well…..7.43 ERA and 28 hits allowed in 23 IP….And how about 6 DONGS allowed…..Glasnow has been great for TB 21 hits allowed in 29 IP….29 to 6 K to BB ratio only 2 DINGERS allowed…..1.53 ERA…..Rays +41 run differential and Saaaax (-33) while already 6.5 games back….Lean to Tampa in this spot we think the fair line is closer to -130……We focus on taking favorites so will likely take a pass will update if we end up with sweet action on this game.
Oakland at Toronto (1:07 pm)
Athletics -116 Blue Jays +107
Gonna take a shot with the F5 over…..You can bag a “5” at a decent price at Pinnacle (-128)……Thornton is close to GASCAN status and HARD CONTACT GUY will know that he gives up a lot of hard hit balls and most of that hard contact is in the air…..RUH ROH….Bassitt is JAG and has only started one game (5 SH innings, 4BB)……Slight lean to the As but the Jays somehow have their number (wut?)…..Let’s see some runs.
Milwaukee at New York (1:10 pm)
Mets -111 Brewers +103
Welcome to the GIO GONZALEZ EXPERIENCE as he makes his first start of the season for the Brew Crew…..Matz has only had one bad start but it was a doooooozie…..31 pitches without recording an out……Mets seemed cheap to us at first but gonna have to take a pass since they have lost 3 straight (-22 run diff on the season) and are just 4-6 at home.
Colorado at Atlanta (1:20 pm)
Braves -152 Rockies +140
Monumental under-the-radar SP edge for the Braves as Gausman has been decent this season (last start nothwithstanding) and the numbers for Rockies GASCAN Anderson are staggering…..3 starts….all bad…..12 IP 22 hits allowed…..6BB and 3 DONGS……Rockies are becoming WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE and the Braves’ pen is trash so will roll with F5 and hope to see some carnage.
San Diego at Washington (1:35 pm)
Nationals -105 Padres -103
Don’t sleep on those Padres! love to see them just a game back of LA…..They are 9-3A and boast a solid pen…..Lucchesi has been JAG so far with no QS yet (26 hits, 9 BB in 27 IP) and Hellickson has escaped doom so far but boasts a gross 10-10 K to BB ratio……CONGRATS NATS! You pen sucks eggs and is now worse than what the Royals put out there…..Feels like a coin toss….Mild interest in the F5 over kinda like the Cubs game last night but will probably sit it out…..If you can find a “4.5” probably not a bad play.
Baltimore at Minnesota (2:10 pm)
Twins -192 Orioles +176
Have this one lined at -200 so will take a hard pass…..Orioles are starting their SLIDE INTO OBLIVION (3-7L10) but Gibson has not been very good so far for the Twins.
Detroit at Chicago (2:10 pm)
Tigers -117 White Sox +108
Boyd is doing a fine job this season for Los Tigres and has reeled off 4 consecutive QS…..Banuelos has only started one game (5 appearances) and we worry a bit about the 8 BB in 14 innings…..These teams are even in our view but the Tigers have a the SP edge…..Hmmmm….Lean to the Tigers but will have to take a pass just not confident enough in their bats…..Would have preferred a match-up vs a better Sox starter so they might be -105 or even a dog.
Cincinnati at St Louis (2:15 pm)
Cardinals -141 Reds +130
You know we love ourselves some Cardinals but we also respect the Reds who are on our underrated list as we approach the end of April…..Sonny Gray has been ok but just 2/5 in QS….He is supported by a decent pen…..The Cards pen is developing into something special (#3 WHIP) and Flaherty has pitched much better at home…..One thing to note….Flaherty has a fine 32-5 K to BB ratio (but 7 DONGS allowed) despite having faced the Brewers in THREE of his five starts….That makes the stats look a bit worse in our view and keep in mind he also faced the Dodgers and looked great……Cards 11-4 home Reds 4-9 away will take a taste of some sweet Cards action while understanding that we had them on Friday when they lost 278-1.
Los Angeles at Kansas City (2:15 pm)
Angels -108 Royals +100
Both SPs are on our banned list (Harvey, Bailey) BUT we have to consider the F5 over…..Homer Bailey is still Homer Bailey despite have 2/5 QS (hammered by Rays last start) whilst Harvey has put together 2/5 QS as well…..We are not thrilled with Harvey’s numbers (24 IP 29 H 10-16 K to BB and 5 DINGERS)….Lean to the F5 over but will probably take a pass…..Not a big fan of the Halos’ bats and Harvey has not allowed a SB yet.
New York at San Francisco (4:05 pm)
Yankees -121 Giants +111
May finally get off the Yankees train today but we still see a bit of value with the Bronx Bombers (we have it lined at closer to -130) although it is not the GIFT FROM THE HEAVENS that it was yesterday…..We like German quite a bit but the Yankees pen has been pure caca (technical term) lately….Rodriguez is JAG for the Giants…..Let everyone keep telling you how bad the Yankees are and ignore and cash tickets (8-2 L10 at fair prices)…..Today just might be a day to take off….If you pounce we recommend F5.
Chicago at Arizona (4:10 pm)
Cubs -109 Diamondbacks -101
The Cubs are playing good baseball right now and Quintana is pitching at a really high level…..21 IP 2 ER 14 K last 3 starts)……SNAKES are also 7-3L10 and continue to defy our NL WEST INSIDERS by playing at an impressive .571 clip…..On the other side you have DREAM WEAVER who has also been solid in his L3 starts…..17.2 IP 10 H 2 BB 24 K)…….Feels like a coin toss and that is what the line is telling us. Pass.
Texas at Seattle (4:10 pm)
Mariners -127 Rangers +117
Very difficult to choose a side here….Both offenses can go OFF at a moment’s notice and Texas did their part last night hanging a 15-BURGER…..Lynn has had three good starts and two horrible ones…..Swanson seems like JAG right now…..Lean to the F5 over but probably will take a pass will update later if we get down.
Pittsburgh at Los Angeles (4:10 pm)
Dodgers -183 Pirates +169
The Buccos are in a tailspin 3-7L10 while the Dodgers are being the Dodgers…..Price looks a bit high given that the oft-injured Hill is making his first start and T Williams is an underrated SP. Pass.
Cleveland at Houston (7:05 pm)
Astros -105 Indians -103
Indians get full marks from our American League INSIDERS for the way they are playing in Houston…..Lindor should be back in the lineup (?) but there is a question around the strrrruggggglllllingggg Carrasco…..Miley is not super-trustworthy…..Both teams feature solid bullpens…..We have this lined at -110 so don’t see much value on either side.
Enjoy the games! Thanks for reading.