MLB tidbits – Sunday, May 5
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
Tampa Bay at Baltimore (1:05 pm)
No line as we go to press.
The Rays love being the neighborhood D-BAGS and making everyone wait to hear about their SP plans, changing line-up order at the last second, playing with 9 shortstops, etc…..We got bailed out with the late pitching change yesterday and just ignoring this contest today. Rays bats have gone cold and Orioles are the Orioles.
Kansas City at Detroit (1:10 pm)
Tigers -117 Royals +108
The Royals SPANKED Los Tigres like a RED-HEADED STEPCHILD yesterday and hung a 15-burger….It could have been worse….The good news for the Tigers is that they can a sneaky-good SP edge today with Turnbull (1 ER last 3 starts – 17 IP) vs Keller who keeps getting worse (10 ER allowed last two starts)…….Have the game lined at -125 but it’s impossible to trust either team at this point. Player notes…..Tigers cold, yo….Whit, Mondesi, Soler hitting well for KC.
Seattle at Cleveland (1:10 pm)
Indians -141 Mariners +130
Seattle is now 0-12 vs teams .500 or better and have lost 6 games in a row….Eric “Hungry Man” Swanson has allowed 5 DINGERS and 23 hits in just 17 IP for Seattle….ruh roh….Cody Anderson is just-a-guy (JAG) and is filling in due to the myriad of SP injuries….Lean to Cleveland but cannot trust them with a JAG SP……Seattle bats have gone cold overall…..Santana has 4 DONGS in the last week.
Atlanta at Miami (1:10 pm)
Braves -113 Marlins +104
We will bite on ATL ML as the game was lined at -140 by our NL EAST INSIDERS…..Hate being “Value Guy” but it seems like the Braves are the play….Marlins 6-14 at home and (-71) in run differential…..Acuna left the game yesterday with back tightness and JD is always a threat to bail due to calf issues but it’s still Atlanta vs Miami….Teheran is JAG and has allowed 18 BB and 8 DINGERS…..not crazy about that….Lopez has been decent but does not go too far into games…..Player notes….Acuna (may not play) is 4/8 with two BOMBS off PL….Inciarte is 5/8…..Flowers 4/5……Granderson has three BOMBS off Teheran in 37 AB…..Albies has 4 DONGS and 10 RBI in the past week….Miami bats have gone cold only have 1 HR as a team over the past 7 days.
UPDATE – Acuna not in starting lineup.
Washington at Philadelphia (2:05 pm)
Phillies -161 Nationals +149
The Nats got a big win yesterday but are still 3-7 L10….Eflin has only had one bad start all season and it coming off a 9 IP / 1 ER performance vs Miami….and this is still a watered down line-up for Washington….Sanchez is the definition of JAG at this point (37 hits in 32 IP, 18 BB)….Line looks about right…neither pen is too be trusted if you like a side please do your emotions a favor and play F5 and not full game….Player notes….JTR is 4/9 off AS with a DONG….Segura is 5/9…..Harper has 2 3B and a DINGER in 16 AB…..Robles 3 HR L7 days….Segura and Hoskins are hot.
Update – Soto on IL.
Oakland at Pittsburgh (1:35 pm)
Athletics -121 Pirates +112
Both teams stttttrrrrugggggling….Buccos (-28) run differential and may find it hard to climb back into things with injured SPs Archer and Taillon….Lyles gets the nod today and has been good overall…..Montas has been just as good (3/6 QS)…..Oakland bats are waking up particularly Chapman and Phegley who had a ridiculous game the other day….Melky and Bell doing workkkkk for Pitt…..A bit of value with the Pirates but we have had a tough time reading them this season.
New York at Milwaukee (2:10 pm)
Brewers -147 Mets +136
Davies sports a 1.38 ERA but DANGER may be lurking at some point soon….32.2 IP 30 hits allowed and 13 BB just 21 Ks….Has only made it to the 6th inning once…..Not sure how Vargas doesn’t give up 11 runs every start BUT we must give him credit….1 ER in each of his last 3 starts….Doesn’t get past the 5th inning….These two teams went 18 ROUNDS last night and not sure how the bullpen action will work out today…..Game over might be the best play??…..Player notes….Braun broke out of his 3-year slump with 6 hits yesterday…..Mets bats are cold but Nimmo is 3/3 vs Davies and the TODDFATHER has a pair of HR vs Davies in 5 AB.
Update Yelich hitting 2nd.
Baaaston at Chicago (2:10 pm)
Red Saaax -186 White Sox +172
Boston bats are firing wikkkkid haaaaard right now the entire team is pulverizing baseballs especially our boy Chavis….The Rick Porcello Experience is on the mound and he has quietly turned things around….8 fine shutout innings last start….Great sign for the Saaax….Covey on the mound for Chicago he has only tossed 1.1 innings this season….This one could get messy gonna side with Baaastan ML….hopefully win enough money to buy some wickiiid haaaarrrd lobstaaa…..Player notes….Entire Boston team is on FIRE….Abreu still mashing and Anderson has finally cooled off…..Sanchez is 7/18 off RP.
Update – Betts not in starting lineup apparently that is worth 15 cents to the line.
Toronto at Texas (3:05 pm)
Rangers -134 Blue Jays +124
Clay “Pitch to Contact” Buchholz could have issues with a deadly Rangers lineup….Clay has not looked great since his first start and has only K’d 11 batters in 20 IP…..Miley has been sneaky good this year and has not allowed more than 3 ER in any start yet this season….Definite lean to the Rangers but their pen is pure TRASH…..Hmmm strong lean to Tex F5 or some kind of Tex bet….not down yet tho…..Player notes….Cabrera is 9/18 off CB with two 2B and 2 HR…..Nobody is really smoking hot for the Jays right now…..Ditto for Texas.
Update gonna roll with Tex F5.
Arizona at Colorado (3:10 pm)
Rockies -137 Snakes +127
The SNAKES are not WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE…..They are 13-6 on the road and playing great baseball (+31 run differential) that can be attributed to solid hitting and pitching….The Rockies sputter every time it looks like they may get to .500 and they are just 5-9 at home….Greinke has been LIGHTS FREAKING OUT this year and while he has given up DONGS (8) his basic stats are excellent…..44 IP 34 hits 46-8 K to BB ratio…..Marquez has 4 QS but has not been that great at home (5.29 ERA vs 1.55 away)…..Lean to the SNAKES but not on it yet…..Would probably go F5……Player notes…..Story is 11/35 off ZG with 5 BOMBS….Reynolds .194 but 4 HR….Arendo has not DONGED off ZG in 61 AB that seems impossible for the GOAT amirite???…..Peralta is 13/29 off GM with 2 HR…..Marte and Escobar are on fire….Blackmon and Arenado are stroking for the Rockies.
Minnesota at New York (4:05 pm)
Yankees -134 Twins +123
Twins go with noted GASCAN Pineda on the bump and his last three starts have been horrible…..15 ER in limited innings….4 DONGS….just 7K…..German has been really good this season for the Yankees not enough people talking about how he is a main reason that NY has managed to keep winning despite 2/3 of their team being injured…..Both of these bullpens are not to be trusted gonna roll with NY F5 we have it lined around -175….Player notes…..Twins hitting 4/23 off German in limited AB…..Sanchez 4 DONGS L7 days…Torres hitting well Voit has cooled off a bit in terms of power……Cruz and Schoop doing ok work.
Los Angeles at San Diego (4:10 pm)
Dodgers -135 Padres +125
Line looks about right maybe 5-10 cents short….Machado is RAKING but the Dodgers keep squeezing out wins…..Check status of the GOAT Bellinger who may not play today (shoulder)…..Maeda has been decent but he is apt to get BLOWN UP if he is not careful….34 hits in 32 IP and 15 BB…..Margevicius has been ROCK SOLID for the Padres and we prefer the LAD vs RHP….Hmmm maybe the line value is with the Padres?? LOL. Tough call…..Player notes…..Margot and Renfroe have done well vs KM in limited sample sizes….Dodgers offense working well 7 guys have a HR the last 7 days….Our boy Machado just SICK HOT right now as noted above.
San Francisco at Cincinnati (4:10 pm)
Reds -179 Giants +164
Argh. They are finally treating Castillo like the ACE that he is…..-180 range too much for us….but we will check in on this game from time to time as he is must-see TV….Player notes…..Reds have ZERO DONGS in 76 AB vs the Shark…..Dietrich red hot and gets a RHP….Giants bats warming up but still have very little power, yo.
Houston vs Los Angeles (4:10 pm)
Game in Mexico
Astros -207 Angels +190
Epic SP mismatch as the GOAT Verlander takes on Matt Harvey…..Ruh roh….Verlander has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last 4 starts (!)…..He has given up 7 BOMBS but they are often solo jobs….Harvey has pitched well in his last two outings posted a pair of QS…..He throws enough slop up there to make things interesting for hitters….Was hoping for something in the -175 range to break the $10,000 button but can’t do -210ish….Player notes….Angels hitting .163 off JV (29/178)….King Albert does have a pair of DONGS off him….Trout is just 5/36 but has a pair of HR…..Our boy BREGMAN is mashing (4 HR last 7 days) and double DONGED yesterday….Angels bats are lukewarm.
St Louis at Chicago (7:05 pm)
Cubs -127 Cardinals +117
Wainright has pumped out a pair of QS in a row (Mil, Was) and is crafty enough to navigate a hot Cubs lineup without getting destroyed….The Cards will have to score 4+ to win this one though and Quintana has been pitching above our expectations so far this season….3 QS, 3.48 ERA….Line looks about right to us….Player notes…..Goldschmidt is 4/8 off JQ with 2 HR but is cold….Ozuna 4/8 with a HR….Fowler 7/17……No epic BVP vs AW but a decent sprinkling of XBH….Rizzo in good form….Jose Martinez on a 10/21 tear but overall Cards slumping at the dish.
Enjoy the games and thanks for reading!!