MLB tidbits – Thursday, May 16
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
I play everything I say that I like in the write-ups BUT I usually put only a few in blue as recommended plays because a) if you are not playing a low juice book like we are, playing too many games will eat into your profits. Just being honest b) You need to be really conservative with your bankroll betting baseball and that is hard for most people to do. Don’t wanna see peeps to get creamed on a bad day b/c they bet too much. c) I’m busy with football and like to do this right away and then get on with the day. Sometimes I don’t decide how to play a game until later. Just DM me on Twitter or comment on the post and I can answer any Q you have. Cheers!
update – have not bet a single $ yet. Sorry tough card. Two games left LOL.
update – ok on the padres.
update – if you have a higher risk tolerance – look for green
Milwaukee at Philadelphia (1:05 pm)
Phillies -111 Brewers +102
Two good teams go at it again and the Brewers are 7-3 in their L10 games including the last two vs the Phillies…..Eflin is HOT right now for the Phillies….3 str QS and total of 2 ER allowed….only 7 BB on the season…..Davies has DEFIED LOGIC by pitching really well all season…..The ERA (1.54) is sure to rise quite a bit over time BUT his peripherals are decent and the Phil bats are not exactly cooking…..especially your boy Harper……We have the line set at -120 so see a bit of value with Phil but don’t think we will be on this game…..Not enough of a SP edge (if any) to take F5 and that manager is a wacko and combined with a suspect pen we can’t ruin 3 hours of our life in agony….Player notes…..Phil starters are 14/40 (.350) off ZD…..Franco is 4/6 with a TATER….Grandal has 2 TATERS off Zach in 8 AB….Braun and Cain are hitting well for the Crew….Phillies bats are in a bit of a deep sleep as we go to press.
New York at Washington (1:05 pm)
Mets -136 Nats +126
The Nats went another day without having their bullpen BARF ALL OVER THEMSELVES and our boy Corbin had another solid game…..The tables are turned today as the Mets roll with underrated Z Wheeler who is coming off two QS (21-2 K to BB) and he has only allowed 3 DONGS all season….Sanchez is just-a-guy (JAG) who doesn’t go deep into games…..Feels like Mets or nothing but not crazy about the price might check out the Mets F5 TT stay tuned…..Player notes….Nats starters are 32/91 (!) (.352) off Wheeler and your boy Eaton is 9/15…..Tony Two Bags is 10/30….Mets starters just .197 off Sanchez……Conforto is hitting well as is Rendon….Bit of a wind blowing in from LF but temps are nice.
Oakland at Detroit (1:10 pm)
Athletics -127 Tigers +117
We were about to break the $10,000 button on our online betting app and pound the As until we remembered that Turnbull is on the mound for the Tigers and he is flying VERY under the radar….Tigers are 5-3 in his starts….ERA 2.42…36 hits in 42 IP….44-18 K to BB….only 3 BOMBS allowed this season….Bassitt has also been a nice surprise for the As….Solid every outing….Good peripherals but 5 DONGS allowed in 24 IP…..We have it lined at -130……As have been inconsistent and the Tigers have been sneaky annoyingly good when not facing the GOATS (Astros)…..Taking a pass…..Player notes….Castellanos is 4/8 off CB with 3 doubles…..Rodriguez and Dixon have 5 TATERS between them L7D….K Davis appears to be healthy he double DONGED the other day.
Texas at Kansas City (1:15 pm)
Rangers -105 Royals -103
Yes, guy. Minor took care of the F5 wager for MEGALOCKS 89,000 POUND STEAMER LOCK CLUB yesterday but it was a sweat as the Royals stranded approximately 140 runners…..Downgrade to Lynn today who is JAG but he does throw enough SLOP up there to keep guys guessing….Bailey has actually been pretty good outside of a couple of starts and he has 38K in 41 IP…..Feels like a coin toss….We were looking at a Royals TT play of some kind but the odds are surprisingly bang on…..argh…..Still digging…..Player notes…..Our boy Gordon is 10/19 off Lynn and he is having a nice season so far at the dish……Pence has decent BVP….he has cooled off a bit after being on fire last week. Like, literally, like. On fire.
Baltimore at Cleveland (6:10 pm)
Indians -289 Orioles +261
RUH ROH. Bauer vs the Os. This feels a lot like the Verlander vs Tigers fiasco from yesterday and you know we usually avoid games like this one. Bauer has been generally great. Straily has been generally A TIRE FIRE (8.23 ERA)…..Player notes…..Starting Indians are 3/31 off DS….CRUSH Davis is 4/13 off Bauer with a pair of 2B and a TATER.
Chicago at Cincinnati (6:40 pm)
Reds -138 Cubs +127
Castillo gets the call for the Reds and BOY OH BOY we hope these Reds can get the bats going and make this division (THE GROUP OF DEATH) even more interesting……Only if Joey Votto could stop being Slappy McGoo and choking up on the bat after one strike but we digress….Castillo has been great this year allowing just 32 hits in 56 (!!) IP…..70 to 24 K to BB ratio…..A few too many walks but we are nitpicking…..Quintana has also been solid with nice peripherals across the board…..We were hoping to get a price in the -120 range to take Cincy OR have any other pitcher than JQ take the mound for the Cubs……Taking a pass for now……..Player notes….Slappy McGoo is 7/14 off JQ with four 2B…..Schwarber has a pair of BOMBS off LC in 6 AB…..Rizzo still out that is a plus for LC as their best LH bat is not there, yo.
St Louis at Atlanta (7:20 pm)
Braves -113 Braves +104
Argh. Tough game to call. You know we love ourselves some sweet Cardinals action and also like the Braves chances this season…….Wainwright and Teheran have both been decent this season and it’s really hard to say anything negative about either doood…..Lean to the Braves (have it lined at -125 or so) but it’s just too close to call…..Player notes……Starting Braves have zero DONGS in 58 AB vs AW…..Cards have nice BVP….Carpenter is 7/14 with two BOMBS…..Ozuna is 17/45 (.378) with three TATERS vs JT.
Toronto at Chicago (8:10 pm)
Blue Jays -122 White Sox +113
The Blue Jays are morphing into WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE (horrific team with good upside long-term) and your boy Stroman is acting like WHO WE KNEW HE WAS stomping around like a 4 year-old that didn’t get his toy or lollipop from mommy…..Sticking it to the manager and coaches in front of everyone because he is “so competitive” and “not getting run support”….Like he is the only pitcher on earth that plays for a DOG SH&T TEAM and has more losses on his personal stat line than he should…..Poor baby….Oh wait….HE WENT TO DUKE!!!??? Ok that changes things…..do whatever you want!!…..I love Toronto media and fans!!! Fan boys all around!! WOOOOOOO…..But we digress….Probably a good time to take STRO SHOW as the line is a bit short in our estimation and Covey is worse than Stroman…….We are passing this one and can’t wait to watch Cards Braves and will tune in when an adult is starting for the Jays……Player notes….White Sox are 17/74 off your boy MS with 2 DONGS…..(.230)….Vlad Jr had a DOUBLE DONG in SF.
Pittsburgh at San Diego (10:10 pm)
Padres -123 Pirates +114
The good news? The BUCCOS roll with Williams on the bump and his YTD starts are good AND he has only allowed 3 TATERS all season…..The bad news….He has allowed more hits than IP in three straight starts…..Lauer has been solid all year BUT did get the PRISON SHIV in the KIDNEYS last outing at Coors Field…..The Friars have a much better pen and the line seems short….Gonna roll with Padres ML…..Gambling Gods forgive us for fading the Pirates…..Player notes….Something called Garcia is 8/14 off TW…..Josh Bell is entering GOAT status with his recent hitting and is 4/6 off Lauer.
Minnesota at Seattle (10:10 pm)
Twins -109 Mariners +101
The last time Pineda was a favorite the #1 show on TV was Gilligan’s Island…..He is a bad JAG with 10 TATERS allowed in 40 IP….Swanson is a borderline disaster waiting to happen for Seattle….He got smoked in his last start and is also a member of the JAG CLUB….We likey likey the Mariners F5 TT over 2.5 but it’s not recommended for anyone with a heart condition…..Player notes…E5 is 10/30 off MP with a TATER.
Thanks for reading! Enjoy the games!