MLB tidbits – Thursday, May 2
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
San Diego at Atlanta (12:10 pm)
Braves -139 Padres +129
Lean to the Braves in this contest…..Foltynewicz looked decent in his first start (2 DONGS allowed) and gets a RH heavy Padres lineup…..Strahm has been solid allowed more than 2 ER in just one of his starts……Both teams are two games back in their respective divisions….SD has done it despite having a (-13) run differential…..SPs look about even Padres have big edge in pen…..Like the Braves vs LH starters and Acuna is back in the lineup……Player notes…..Albies is on SUPAH HOT FIRE for Atlanta…..Machado is 4/6 career FWIW vs MF…..Line has jumped about 8 cents in the last hour probably due to the lineup release and Acuna…..-139 just a bit too much for us to jump in, yo.
Cincinnati at New York (12:10 pm)
Mets -175 Reds +162
Stop us if you have heard this before but we lean to the Reds AGAIN…..haaaa…..Your boy Syndergaard has been BAD by his standards allowing 4 or more ER in 5/6 starts…..Mahle has given up 4+ ER in his last three starts…..Expected to see more runs in this series but this ballpark is the KISS OF DEATH for runs until things warm up……Mets are (-20) in run differential and 6-8 at home…..Player notes…..Dietrich has ok BVP vs Noah…..Winker is hitting well…..McNeil is fairly hot for the Mets…..Hard to get past the poor form of both SPs best bet appears to be a F5 ov 3.5 (extra juice) or 4…..Not down on it yet may have to take a seat given that neither offense is cooking.
Houston at Minnesota (1:10 pm)
Twins -111 Astros +103
Two really good teams go at it again…..They are a combined 55 in run differential……Peacock has pitched well and should be able to get the Astros to the 5th or 6th inning or so and have their excellent pen take over…..Berrios is a legit ace and has QS in 5 of his 6 outings…..He has had problems with DONGS allowing 6 so far this year…..Twins are solid at home (10-5) and Houston is below .500 on the road…..Slight lean to the Twins but we had it lined at -110…..Player notes…..Kepler and Cruz hitting well for the Twins….Astros hitting .333 (16/48) off Berrios….Correa is pretty hot….Bregman and Springer have good BVP albeit in very small sample sizes.
Colorado at Milwaukee (1:10 pm)
Peralta -123 Rockies +114
Welcome to the FREDDY PERALTA EXPERIENCE……He had one excellent start vs the Reds and was PURE TRASH in his other three starts…..Rockies bats are heating up and we will take a stab at their team total over 3.5 -132…..Can also make a case for Rockies ML as Gray is a decent SP although he is having trouble with walks and DINGERS…..Player notes….Shaw has a pair of DONGS vs Gray in 11 ABs…..Arenado and Blackmon are 0-10 combined vs Freddy so that is a bit of a worry…..Nolan does have 4 BOMBS in his last 7 games so something has to give….???…..Brewers still without Yelich…..Aguilar is raking for the Brew Crew.
Tampa Bay at Kansas City (2:15 pm)
Rays -156 Royals +143
The Royals SHOCKED the WORLD yesterday sweeping a doubleheader vs the Rays who have seen their bats cool off in the past seven days…..Morton has been rock solid this year for TB but he does have trouble with BB (16 in 32 IP) and doesn’t get too deep into games…..Duffy is a scrub at this point and has only made one start but there are some Ks to be had in the Rays’ lineup…..Line is pretty fair in our view just not sure Rays will heat up today especially in cold weather…..Player notes…..Garcia is 12/36 (.333) in his career off Duffy…..Maldonado is 6/11 off Morton.
St Louis at Washington (4:05 pm)
Nationals -153 Cardinals +141
Will go back to the well one more time on Nats F5 after Mad Max and the bumbling outfield gave up three runs in the first inning last night…..Strasburg is pitching well and has racked up 8+ Ks in all but one start….No Goldschmidt for STL….Dakota Hudson is one of the worst SP from a statistical standpoint right now….33 hits allowed in 24 IP…..8 DONGS allowed and a smelly 13-19 BB to K ratio…..Nats may have a bit of a watered down lineup again not sure if Soto will be in there and Rendon is already missing……Still find it hard to believe a bunch of scrubs can’t get a lead after 5 vs Hudson BUT this IS baseball! LOL……Player notes…..Ozuna is on FIRE and has great BVP vs SS….Gyorko is 6/14 off SS with three XBH.
Boston at Chicago (8:10 pm)
Red Saaaaax -204 White Sox +187
Boston should be able to get the job done in this spot but not crazy about laying -200 with a team that is below .500….Price has been really good and has only allowed 4 ER in his last three starts (24-5 K to BB)…..Giolito is going to have issues with the mashers on Boston that are starting to smash wickid haaaaad……Chicago hitting just .122 off Price (5/41)……Player notes….Mookie and Chavis are hot…..Abreu in BEAST FREAKING MODE for Chicago.
Toronto at Los Angeles (10:07 pm)
Angels -152 Jays +140
Halos have won 3 straight and are a much better team at home……Definitely lean their way in this one with Sanchez on the mound for Toronto (20 BB in 31 IP)….Skaggs has been ok for the Angels (3.15 ERA just 5 BB)…….Price a bit too high to side with the home team….Jays have edge in the pen and have done well on the road, this series nothwithstanding……Player notes….Sogard and Drury are the hottest Jays right now…..La Stella and Calhoun doing good work right now for LA.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the games!