MLB tidbits – Thursday, May 30
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
I play everything I say that I like in the write-ups BUT I usually put only a few in blue as recommended plays because a) if you are not playing a low juice book like we are, playing too many games will eat into your profits. Just being honest b) You need to be really conservative with your bankroll betting baseball and that is hard for most people to do. Don’t wanna see peeps to get creamed on a bad day b/c they bet too much. c) I’m busy with football and like to do this right away and then get on with the day. Sometimes I don’t decide how to play a game until later. Just DM me on Twitter or comment on the post and I can answer any Q you have. Cheers!
Stuff in green notes ideas that are only for people with a higher risk tolerance and have experience with the ups and downs of betting MLB. Chronic whiners and panic-stricken peeps should look away.
Over 230 wagers on the season. Time flies!
St Louis at Philadelphia (1:05 pm)
Phillies -108 Cardinals +100
This game is a bit of a PUZZLER…..The Cards are really sttttrugglingggg this month and are 10-16 on the road whilst the Phillies are 20-10 (!) at home…..The catch? <isn’t there always one?>…..Phils roll out your boy Eickhoff who has been BLASTED in his last three outings and allowed 7 DONGS in just 12 IP…..Contrast to the Cards’ Hudson who boasts three consecutive QS……As per usual….we are almost always looking at the F5 and it seems to us that the Cardinals F5 TT ov 2.5 (-110 at Pinny) holds some value…..Player notes….Ozuna has good BVP but the rest of the Cards do not have good BVP at all in small samples…..80 degrees slight wind blowing out to CF.
San Francisco at Miami (1:10 pm)
Giants -106 Marlins -103
The Giants are becoming WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE (pure trash that will only get worse once they trade Mad Bum and others)…..They roll out Beede who has allowed 14 hits, 8 BB and 2 BOMBS in just 6 IP…..Is that even POSSIBLE??? The Marlins are nothing special BUT as you know we are fond of their SPUNK and it seems to us that they will fight you until the last breath….Hard to back either squad but it seems to us that the Giants should almost never be favored over anyone <just kidding> <not really>……Might not be the worst idea to plug your nose and try Marlins F5 TT ov 1.5 (-154 at Pinny)……Player notes……Miami starting to hit quite a bit better….The ballpark is DEATH for hitters but they are facing potentially the worst pitcher in MLB. <grabs popcorn> <says prayers to the baseball gambling gods>
Arizona at Colorado (3:10 pm)
Rockies -128 Snakes +118
Yes, guy. Colorado is starting to roll and are winners of four straight games….Freeland has been a GREASE FIRE this season with an ERA of 6.71 and 14 DINGERS allowed in 56 IP…..Something called a Clarke is on the bump for the Snakes but he has put up B2B QS….Keep in mind that Clarke pitched in Tampa and San Fran which are big time pitchers’ parks and now he gets to deal vs a hot lineup at Coors……Tough game to call feels like Rocks or nothing…..Player notes…..Ahmed has good BVP.
Boston at New York (7:05 pm)
Red Saaax -144 Yankees +133
New York has opened up a 7.5 (!) game lead on Boston but the Red Saaax have a shot to cut into that lead in a big way as they go head-to-head for four games…..Sale has been really good since mid-April and while his last two outings were not great keep in mind they were both against the Astros…..HAPPER has not been good this year (5.09 ERA, more hits than IP) but did strike out a season-high 10 batters last start…..Lean to Boston in this spot….Player notes….Morales and Hicks have decent BVP vs Sale….Pearce has six DINGERS off Happ in 35 AB.
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 pm)
Brewers -129 Pirates +119
The BUCCOS starting pitchers are dropping like flies but they are still just four games back of the Cubbies…..Musgrove has been shaky in May after a stellar April (8.25 ERA vs 1.54) whilst Chase Anderson has been decent, albeit not giving the team many innings……Lean looks a bit high but not going to take the short end of the SP match-up……Player notes…..DFS and player prop dudes take note that Marte is 13/27 (.481) off CA with two HR….Polanco has five DONGS n 33 AB….Yelich has hit JM well in limited AB….Winds at 12mph blowing out to left.
Minnesota at Tampa Bay (7:10 pm)
Rays -140 Twins +129
The two hot UPSTARTS in the AL go head-to-head…..Will be interesting to see how the Twins potent lineup fares playing in Tampa…..GROUND CHUCK is on the mound for TB and he is pitching at an all-star level…..60IP 43 hits 77-27 K to BB only 4 TATERS allowed…..Perez has been a nice surprise for the Twins giving them quality innings and a sum-3.00 ERA…..Line looks a bit high we had it lined around -125 but not enough to make us feel good…..Player notes…..Heredia is 10/22 off MP….Twins have limited action vs CM.
Kansas City at Texas (8:05 pm)
Rangers -153 Royals +141
Leanage to Texas in this spot but ML is out of the question give their TRASH pen…..Come to think of it….same goes for KC…..Junis is just-a-guy (JAG) and Texas is a REALLY tough place to pitch for anyone let alone a JAG with a 5.58 ERA…..Minor has been good to us this year and is going to be a hot commodity at the trade deadline…..70 IP 58 hits 2.55 ERA….72 to 22 K to BB only 3 SB allowed all year…..Royals bad on the road and Texas solid at home……Rangers F5 is worth a stab (-158 at Pinny)……Player notes…..KC hitting .326 off Minor in 43 AB…..Rangers have had limited ABs vs Junis……(Note: will discuss further tomorrow: We advise risking the same amount in every game regardless of the odds: -150 or +105)
Cleveland at Chicago (8:10 pm)
Indians -194 White Sox +178
The Tribe are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and are starting to LOSE TOUCH with the Twinkies….Carrasco has been ok this year but has given up 64 hits in 58 IP and boasts a 4.60 ERA (13 BOMBS)…..Yuuuge SP edge over Banuelos who has been roughed up in four consecutive starts…..Line looks about right hard to lay close to -200 with Cleveland vs anyone…..Player notes…..Sox hitting just .199 off CC in 181 (!!) AB…..Bauers Perez and Luplow hitting 8/10 off MB with 5 BOMBS…..Luplow 3 HR in 5 AB haaaaaaaaaaa…..Crazy small sample sizes we know but pretty funny if you ask our AL CENTRAL INSIDERS.
New York at Los Angeles (10:10 pm)
Dodgers -269 Mets +244
Impossible to fade the LAD at home (21-7) (!) especially after the big comeback win last night (why are you betting Mets ML – full game – EVER??) and with a SP in Ryu that has been unbelievable so far in 2019…..1.65 ERA and 4 (!!!!!!) BB in 65 IP……Vargas is a scrub but this line is just too high and you know we avoid anything over -200….Player notes….LAD hitting .393 off JV in 28 AB…..DEEP FREEEEESE is 8/14 with 3 DONGS……Mets 7/39 off Ryu (.179).
Los Angeles at Seattle (10:10 pm)
Mariners -112 Angels +104
Impossible to back the Ms as they have been one of the worst teams in MLB since the mid-point of April…..Kikuchi has been as advertised and has not been blown up yet in 12 starts (Ms are 7-5 in those outings)…..Pena has been good but does not go deep into games….Halos just 11-15 on the road and have started to struggle when it looked like they might go on a run….SP is just not good enough…..Player notes….Ms just 5/27 off FP (.185) in 27 AB.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the games!