MLB tidbits – Tuesday, April 23
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies into doing their own work. Anyone can do it!
Detroit at Boston (1:05pm)
Boston -218 Detroit +200
Boyd pitching well for Tigers….3 QS, 2.96 ETA and a fine 36-7 K to BB ratio…..Allowed only one DONG all year…..Sale 1/4 in QS and while is velocity is trending the right way he’s hard to recommend at this price tag. Two top-10 WHIP pens are featured today. Will play either Tigers TT under 3.5 or game under 8 or 8.5 (juiced up).
Miami at Cleveland (6:10 pm)
Cleveland -198 Miami +182
Carrasco has had two great starts and two brutal ones…..Lopez been ok for Marlins good K-BB ratio (23-3) but has not reached the 6th inning yet…..Indians with pen edge….Miami 1-5 on the road with (-47) run differential overall…..Lindor back. Will take a taste of the Indians.
Atlanta at Cincinnati (6:40 pm)
Atlanta -107 Cincinnati -101
Sneaky good pitching match-up ….Gausman 2/3 QS but this is his first road start…..Braves have won 2 straight but have #24 WHIP pen…..Dare we say Sonny Gray is dealing (19 IP 12 hits 22-6 K to BB ratio and 2.79 ERA)……Lean to the under but we are not going to play this game given our disdain for “unders” in MLB in general…..Wind blowing out to left…..Side feels like a toss-up.
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore (7:05 pm)
Chicago -136 Baltimore +125
Baltimore is DEAD LAST in team ERA (well over 6) and are not to be trusted……Cashner has only had one bad start but is always capable of giving up runs and DONGS o’plenty…..Nova on the mound for CWS has had two good starts and two bad ones…..He has not allowed a HR yet and has only issued 3 BB……Orioles (-56) in run differential…..Lean to CWS but not crazy about the price tag….Best play may be CWS TT over but again, the market seems to realize what their potential is today and it looks too pricey.
Arizona at Pittsburgh (7:05 pm)
Pittsburgh -108 Arizona +100
The line has dropped big time and has entered the value zone for the Buccos……Arizona bats are hot but the Pirates are the better team with the better pen (last night notwithstanding lol)_…SP Williams is 4/4 in quality starts….Weaver has been sneaky good and has a fine 17-1 K to BB ratio last two starts……Arizona good on the road but we have it lined at -130/-135 (where it originally opened) so will roll with Pitt again despite being spanked like a red-headed stepchild last night banking on a Pirates victory.
San Francisco at Toronto (7:07 pm)
Toronto -116 San Francisco +107
Line looks about right to us…..Samardzija has been fairly decent this season but the team has a big time probably scoring runs (67 in 23g)….Thornton has had two bad starts in a row and cannot be trusted……Jays bats are warming up…..This game features two top five (!) WHIP bullpens….Slight lean to the under but will not partake in any sweet action.
Philadelphia at New York Mets (7:10 pm)
New York -129 Philadelphia +119
Line looks about right according to our NL East INSIDERS……Both SP have been good for the most part…..Phillies are +8 in run differential whilst the Mets are (-15) and performing slightly better than their run production would suggest…..Phillies have loaded lineup and better pen….Mets have momentum but how will Phillies react after last night’s emotional loss in which Harper was ejected? Not going to get involved.
Kansas City at Tampa Bay (7:10 pm)
Tampa Bay -189 Kansas City +173
Not interested in figuring out how this game will go given that TB is going with an “opener” at SP….Homer Bailey has actually been GOOD (like, for real, like) particularly in the his last two starts…..Royals have only won two road games and boast a garbage bullpen….Rays just 5-5 L10 and price is too high for our liking. Pass.
Detroit at Boston (7:10 pm)
Boston -174 Detroit +160
This game a total pass….Velazquez has not pitched more than three innings yet….Turnbull has been solid for Detroit while not allowing more than three ER in any start…..Tigers 11 HR all season wtf. Pass.
Milwaukee at St Louis (7:45 pm)
St Louis -113 Milwaukee +104
Tough call. Brewers have the SP advantage…..Davies has not allowed > 2 ER in any start yet (1.19 ERA) and Ponce de Leon is making his first appearance of 2019…..On the other hand, Cards are 8-3 at home and are +29 in run differential whilst the Brew Crew is (-10). Tempted to look at F5 over but gonna take a pass on this bad boy.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (8:05 pm)
Chicago -111 Los Angeles +102
Maeda has been solid for the Dodgers so far at SP but has not reached the 7th inning as of yet….Quintana has allowed 0 ER in his last 14 IP (!)….Both teams are 7-3 L10 and the Cubs are coming around. Another game on this card that feels like a toss-up. Wind appears to be a non-issue as we go to press.
Minnesota at Houston (8:10 pm)
Houston -137 Minnesota +127
F5 over seems like a good play. Pineda has given up 4 DONGS in his last 3 starts and got hit hard by the Blue Jays (?) last outing…..Miley has allowed more hits than IP and only has 11K in 21.2 IP. Both teams can rake…..Feels like either Houston full game (Astros #1 WHIP pen) or F5 over and we will go with the latter.
Washington at Colorado (8:40 pm)
Washington -155 Colorado +143
Gonna take a stab with the Nats F5……Corbin vs Hoffman is a match-up we like whether it be in Coors, in Washington or in your mom’s basement. Washington full game wagers are on KIDDIE LOCK until further notice until (if) their bullpen improves….Colorado playing better but we have the Nats as yuuuuge favorites F5.
Texas at Oakland (10:07 pm)
Oakland -148 Texas +136
We did not think that Texas would have a better record (12-9) at this point of the season than Oakland (12-13)….Lynn has been solid for the Rangers and has allowed just 5 ER in his last 3 starts…..Montas is 3/4 in QS with a 2.70 ERA and the As have a better pen…..Line looks about right so us……Rangers 2-5 away….Pass.
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (10:07 pm)
New York -107 Los Angeles -101
Have to take a swing with the Yankees….Last night’s lonnnnng extra inning game adds a bit of complexity to the equation but German has been really good on the mound (3 starts – 5 total ER) and Stratton is a scrub. One of our rare “value” plays since we have the Yankees at -125 and are fetching -107.
Seattle at San Diego (10:10 pm)
San Diego -126 Seattle +116
Really tough call….Seattle can mash BUT they are without a DH and have an unknown quantity at SP…..Padres have been sliding a bit Margevicius has been solid (only one start > 1 ER allowed….but his last start….?). Taking a pass on this game.