MLB tidbits – Tuesday, April 30
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision. GL and enjoy the games!
Detroit at Philadelphia (7:05 pm)
Phillies -185 Tigers +170
Tigers in a funk having lost four in a row but have not been a disaster….YET….They have to take on the first place Phillies (11-5 at home) without the benefit of a DH….Tigers’ SP Ross is just a guy (JAG) and Velasquez has looked good for Philly, albeit he doesn’t get very far into games….Would have considered Philly for a play if we were getting the same value like the Marlins series (-170 range) but gonna take a pass.
St Louis at Washington (7:05 pm)
Cardinals -111 Nationals +102
You know we love ourselves some Cardinals just not sure we are gonna do it this time around…..Neither SP gives us much confidence….Wainright is JAG with 3/5 QS and Sanchez boasts a SIX ERA and has walked 9 dudes in his last two outings….Cards have won 8 of last 10….Nats are 6-9 at home…..Slight lean to Cards….If you go with the Nats play em F5 because their pen is hot garbage.
Cleveland at Miami (7:10 pm)
Indians -201 Marlins +184
Bauer is one of a small handful of ace SPs that is ACTUALLY pitching like an ace (for the most part)…..He is having trouble with walks but has been dominant most of the season…..As we noted last outing it is interesting that the Indians have let him pitch OLD SCHOOL (108+ pitches in every start) but at some point don’t you have to give him some innings off???? Alcantara is JAG for the Marlins but is not a disaster…..Would look at the Indians if the number was more in the -175 range. Pass.
Oakland at Boston (7:10 pm)
Boston -159 Athletics +147
There is some value with the As in our view but it’s hard to call their number when they are in a deep funk (lost 4 straight)…..The good news is that the Saaaaaaax bring us another edition of the RICK PORCELLO EXPERIENCE……He has been a bit better in recent starts but the As are a team that can mash……Brooks has allowed 6 DONGS in 27 IP for Oakland and the Red Saaaax baaaats are heating up…..Lean to the F5 over but only if we can find a “5” with reasonable juice.
Cincinnati at New York (7:10 pm)
Reds -111 Mets +102
The Reds are sneaky good, or at least sneaky average and have their ace on the mound tonight….Castillo is 4/6 in QB, gets a ton of Ks and has only allowed one DINGER all season….Vargas is left-handed TRASH (15 IP, 9 BB, 3 DONGS, 7.20 ERA) and is supported by a TRASH bullpen (#27 WHIP)…..The good news is that many of the Reds bats hit from the left side….Reds are 12-16 but 15-13 in basic expected win-loss metrics (+11 run differential)….They are only 5-10 away from home but did get the Mets last night…..Gonna roll with the Reds TT ov 3.5 (-135 at Pinny) since we think they are medium-large favs to score 4+ runs……although full game at -111 is also interesting given that the Reds should have the pitching edge from start to finish.
San Diego at Atlanta (7:20 pm)
Braves -104 Padres -104
Definitely have some interest in the Braves even though you know we love us some Padres…..SP Paddack has been excellent (10 hits allowed in 27 IP!) but he has not reached the 90 pitch mark yet….He has been efficient but keep in mind SD wants to limit his innings this season (160 or so)….The good news is that the Padres have a fine bullpen and the Braves pen is HOT GARBAGE….The good news for Atlanta?…..They have the kind of patient and professional lineup that can give Paddack some trouble and Teheran has been really good in his two home starts….His also gets a RH heavy lineup……Padres will also be without spark plug Tatis…..Gonna take a stab with Braves F5 (+103) do not want to exposure ourselves to bullpens…..If SD leads after 5 there is probably an 80% chance the win the game anyway.
Houston at Minnesota (7:40 pm)
Astros -163 Twins +150
Our WEATHER INSIDERS have alerted us that there is a good chance this game does not go due to “crappy weather” so will not dig deep…..Houston massive SP edge but they are 7-9 away and OUR Minnesota Twins are 9-4 at home and 8-2 L10. Pass.
Colorado at Milwaukee (7:40 pm)
Rockies -115 Brewers +107
Gonna roll with some sweet Rockies F5 action….Marquez has been amazing away from Coors Field (22 IP and just 1 ER) and Chacin has already given up 7 DONGS and 15 BB…..Rockies bats are heating up…..With or without Yelich we think that Colorado can get the jump.
Pittsburgh at Texas (8:05 pm)
Rangers -111 Pirates +102
Game looks perfectly lined and the bookmakers made the total appropriately high…..Buccos have the SP edge (Lyles vs Sampson) but they have lost 8 straight games (!) and Texas is 10-4 at home. Taking a seat for this one.
Baltimore at Chicago (8:10 pm)
PPD
Tampa Bay at Kansas City (8:15pm)
Rays -167 Royals +154
Careful with this one grasshoppaaas…….Snell is apparently on a limited pitch count (broken toe followed by broken start and the Royals are scrappier than you might think…..Rays have massive bullpen edge but the price is too high for our liking…..Junis is JAG for KC but could help KC upset the apple cart if he can hold them in the game. Pass.
New York at Arizona (9:40 pm)
Diamondbacks -146 Yankees +135
It pains us to say it but it’s hard to side with the Yankees even though they are on SUPAH HOT FIRE (9-1 L10)……Sabathia will probably give the Yanks a decent 5 innings but the middle relief has been horrifying lately and Greinieneneneke did not allow a single ER in either of his last two starts. Line looks perfect to us. Pass.
Los Angeles at San Francisco (9:45 pm)
Dodgers -145 Giants +134
We have the line closer to the -160 range so a bit of value on LA but they are below .500 on the road and we are not huge Buehler fans…..SF is still SF…..Pomeranz has been decent even though he doesn’t get too deep into games…..LAD struggggggllingggg a bit vs LH outside of the GOAT Bellinger and a couple of others…..Taking a pass.
Toronto at Los Angeles (10:07 pm)
Angels -144 Blue Jays +133
Not an easy game to cap…..Line is a bit rich but who knows what to expect from Angels’ PHENOM Canning who is making his first start….The Jays are playing rock solid baseball and just stuck it to the As (again)…..We have it lined in the -130 range will take a pass.
Chicago at Seattle (10:10 pm)
Cubs -130 Mariners +120
We originally thought this would be an easy Cubs fade BUT we have to respect how your boy Hamels is pitching so far this season…..3 QS and 3.16 ERA….Cubs also 7-3 in their L10…..Fun fact….Felix has not yielded more than ONE walk in any of his starts yet this season and seems to have found a groove as a crafty vet. Hard to see an edge on this game.
GL and enjoy the games !!!