MLB tidbits – Tuesday, May 7
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
Chicago at Cleveland (6:10 pm)
Indians -130 White Sox +122
Chicago laid a BEATING on the Indians yesterday and our boy Bauer (ugh)…..Line looks about right in the -140 range still don’t trust the Cleveland offense nor do we love Giolito for the White Sox….Keep in mind Chicago is (-28) in run differential but the Tribe is not much better at (-14)…Player notes…McCann and Abreu HOT for the Sox…..Indians bats pretty cool Santana the hottest option.
Seattle at New York (6:35 pm)
Yankees -151 Mariners +139
Seattle has been bad since their hot start and especially crappy vs good teams….the Yanks are in that category….Tanaka is not to be trusted vs a still-potent lineup as 3L4 starts have been garbage….Gonzales has a 3.28 ERA but we don’t need ADVANCED METRICS GUY to tell us that he will not be that good as the season progresses….Lean to the Yankees but not enough value….Player notes….E5 is 11/25 off Tanaka with a pair of 2B and two DONGS…..Sanchez is the hottest Yankee and E5 has three DINGERS in the last 7 days.
Boston at Baltimore (7:05 pm)
Red Saaaaaax -194 Orioles +178
Boston flamed out wikkkkkid haaaaaaad yesterday but at least we slithered out a F5 total over 4.5 with extra jooooce as posted yesterday…..It’s Red Saaaax or nothing today but not trusting Velasquez (and company) with a -194 price tag…..Player notes….Mancini is 4/8 off Rodriguez…..Beneninentenininiennntendi is 3/8 with THREE DONGS off Hess….Chavis and Beneninentenininiennntendi are hot…..Villar hit a grand SALAMI last night.
Minnesota at Toronto (7:07 pm)
Twins -149 Blue Jays +137
We would play this up to -160 as the fair line should be closer to -180 according to our FAIR LINE INSIDERS…..Berrios is legit FIRE these days and is 6/7 in QS….37 hits in 46 IP with a great 46-8 K to BB ratio….Mr BLISTERS Aaron Sanchez has 22 BB in 29 IP…..Jays are becoming WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE….Player notes….Schoop is 9/28 off AS with a DONG….Rosario 3/7 with one BOMB…..Cruz still raking for the Twins as we go to press….Grichuk in ok form for Jays.
Texas at Pittsburgh (7:05 pm)
Pirates -134 Rangers +123
Can’t back the Rangers on the road (4-9 away) but we do think this game is a bit of a toss-up with something called Sampson going for the Rangers and something called Brault on the bump for Pittsburgh…..Rangers 2-5 in 7 Sampson starts and get no DH….Line seems about right….Player notes…..Nobody super hot for either team and they are playing in a pitcher’s park….Then again….Will there be actual “pitchers” on the mound???
Los Angeles at Detroit (7:10 pm)
Angels -133 Tigers +123
Canning on the mound for the Angels and he was good in his first ever start…..Norris is an accident waiting to happen but to be fair he has been acceptable in all three of his 5-inning starts…Line looks accurate and we lean to the Angels but know that they BLOW on the road and the Tigers have got it done one way or another at home. Pass. Player notes….It seems impossible but Lucroy the Corpse has 3 DONGS in the last 7 days….Rodriguez is on an 8/20 run.
Arizona at Tampa Bay (7:10 pm)
Rays -174 Snakes +160
How good could Tampa Bay be? BOOOOOM. You get KILLED by a score of 12-1….The Snakes are off to a good start but Tampa can put you in a world of HURT if you think they are just a bunch of cute and fluffy underpaid bunnies…..The line value in this one is with the Snakes but we usually avoid openers with TB and Clarke is an unknown potential GASCAN…..Player notes…..Marte and Escobar are in good form….Garcia and Lowe for TB….Pham broke out last night.
Washington at Milwaukee (7:40 pm)
Brewers -108 Nationals +100
We took a taste of Nats F5 recognizing that the Crew is going with an opener today….Strasburg has been one of the most consistent aces in a year in which aces are routinely getting PUNCHED IN THE NECK…..He has only allowed 34 hits in 44 IP and has a fine 57-12 K to BB ratio….Their lineup is borderline trash but this is just too cheap of a price…..We hate to be VALUE GUY but most of the time it works out for us LOL…..Player notes….Yelich hitting just .231 off SS in a large sample (one DONG)…..Kendrick hitting over .400 the L7 days…Eaton is doing ok….Braun might be back on the ROIDS and is on a tear.
Philadelphia at St Louis (7:45 pm)
Phillies -116 Cardinals +107
Phillies a road fav vs STL……..HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA <FALLS OFF CHAIR>
Having said that, the line is probably close to fair (we say pick ’em) but there is no way we are backing the Phillies the way Nola is pitching….Sadly we have watched most of his starts and he is not even close to resembling an ace as we go to press…..44 hits in 37 IP….16 BB and 7 DONGS allowed….Hudson is just-a-guy (JAG) but did do well last outing…..Taking a pass would lean to the over of any kind if you feel like getting some sweet action down…..Player notes….Fowler has two DINGERS in 7 AB vs Nola…..Ozuna 6/19 with two BOMBS…..Nobody is super hot for either team but we love both line-ups.
Miami at Chicago (8:05 pm)
Cubs -156 Marlins +145
As we have said….the Marlins are scrappy and we see that as a THING until the end of the season…The line is very sharp and sadly no value on Miami….C Smith is like a better version of Cy Young so far and we would take a shot with them if anyone other than your boy Lester was on the mound….not yyuuuuuuuge fans of his but the numbers do not lie he has been great…..FWIW Miami won last night…..Player notes….Granderson is 15/51 off JL with 3 DONGS and 12 RBI (.294)……Rizzo has four BOMBS in the last 7 days.
Kansas City at Houston (8:10 pm)
Astros -236 Royals +216
Not going to spend any time on this….Astros or nothing but over -200 we almost always just take a pass…..Player notes….Springer has two BOMBS off DD in 13 AB…..Altuve 9/19 off DD…..Bregman and Correa are crushing like HALL OF FAMERS right now…..Dozier in fine form for KC.
San Francisco at Colorado (8:40 pm)
Rockies -118 Giants +109
Very short price for our Colorado buddies BUT there is a SP edge with the Giants (Mad Bum vs Senzatela) and the Rockies just keep CRAPPING THE BED every time we think they are going to make a run…..Player notes….Story has three DONGS off MB in 26 AB…..Blackmon is 12/33….Panik (????) is 8/18 off AS with a pair of 2B and two BOMBS…..Belt is 4/15….Arenado is CRUSHING SKULLS right now and Blackmon is in a rhythm….DIRK DUGGAR is on a 10/21 tear.
Cincinnati at Oakland (10:07 pm)
Athletics -121 Reds +112
Coin-toss and the line reflects that once you factor in HF…..Fiers is total TRASH and the Reds are just 1-5 in Mahle’s starts although you DO know we think that Cincinnati is WAY better than people think….Just saying…..Player notes….Dietrich, Senzel and Suarez each have 3+ HR in the last 7 days….As only have 3 DONGS as a team over the past week.
Atlanta at Los Angeles (10:10 pm)
Dodgers -136 Braves +126
Yes, guy. What a SP match-up. Ryu has been a TOUR DE FORCE (39-2 K to BB) and Fried has emerged as a legit (borderline?) ace with 5/6 QS and 2.11 ERA…..As we said yesterday just really hard to fade the LAD at home and the price should be closer to -150….Taking a pass…..Player notes….Freeman is 4/6 off Ryu….Markakis is in fine form for Atlanta….Bellinger is healthy and back in the line-up for LAD….Muncy is hitting well.
New York at San Diego (10:10 pm)
Mets -142 Padres +131
It’s against our DNA to cheer against SD but we have the game lined at -140 due to the improving stock of NOAH who is coming off a complete game shutout….The Mets bats are ice cold but they do get a young pup in Quantrill today…..Player notes….Kinsler is 4/6 off NS….As noted the Mets bats are not firing….Reyes and the HOSE MAN are hitting well for SD.
Enjoy the games and THANKS for reading!!