MLB tidbits – Wednesday, May 1
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
Oakland at Boston (1:05 pm)
Red Saaax -137 Athletics +126
Not ideal hitting conditions (low 50s) BUT we have two good offenses and sketchy SP…..Fiers is worse than just-a-guy (JAG) with an ERA of 7.03 and seven DINGERS allowed but the interesting thing is that he has had 4 horrible starts and 3 really good ones….Hard to imagine this will be a good one tho….Velazquez has maxed out at 3.1 IP this season…..Saaaax heating up wickid haard and As have lost 5 straight…..Lean to Boston but just can’t pull the trigger with that SP….Can get a F5 over 5 around -145 may get on that but right now it’s a pass…….Player prop notes….JD has very good BVP in a small sample….Mookie is hot…..Chavis is also raking.
Tampa Bay at Kansas City (1:15 pm) GAME ONE
Rays -149 Royals +138
No line as we go to press….Rays set to use opener and Junis going for KC….We have the fair line around -160…..Will reassess when the ML pops up…..Rays lead MLB with +47 run differential and have big pen edge….Player prop / DFS notes….Weather looks fine…..Diaz is hot for TB….Dozier and Mondesi for KC.
NOTE – line now available. Not a bad price for TB.
Pittsburgh at Texas (2:05 pm)
Pirates -142 Rangers +131
The BUCCOS finally broke their losing streak (8 games) and took down Texas last night….Taillon has been a bit disapponting so far…..Just 2/6 in QS….The good news is that Shelby Miller is PURE TRASH…..He has allowed more hits than IP and features and impossible- to-believe 18 BB to 10 K ratio…..Pirates have pen edge….Lean to Pitt but price is a bit high…..Player prop / DFS…..Melky is hot for the Buccos….Lots of Rangers mashing lately including Choo Choo Choo and Andrus…..Marte has good BVP in small sample and DONGED yesterday.
New York at Arizona (3:40 pm)
Yankees -107 D-Backs -101
We have the game lined as a coin flip and so do the oddsmakers….The two teams are 15-5 combined L20 and both have solid run differentials (+35 – NY, +22 – AZ) …….Tanaka and Kelly have both been decent this season…..Hard to find value….Player notes….Escobar is on fire for the D-Backs and your pal Adam Jones has crazy good BVP for Tanaka…..A number of hot Yankee bats including Luke “Jon” Voit.
Baltimore at Chicago (4:10 pm) GAME ONE
White Sox -176 Orioles +162
The Orioles are becoming WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE and now have a record of 10-20 with a (-64) run differential and #30 WHIP bullpen….Hess has an ERA of 5.88 whilst yielding 8 DONGS….Rodon has upside BUT his last start was a disaster and in fact both of his home starts were disgusting messes….Lean to CWS but price is too high…..Player notes….Abreu on a 10/17 tear.
Tampa Bay at Kansas City (5:00 pm) GAME 2
Rays -202 Royals +185
Snell gets the nod in the second game and as good as he is (great?)…..He is coming off a brief hiatus (toe) and a crappy start vs these same Royals last out…..Too much off a premium to take TB here…..Something called a SPARKMAN rolling for KC. Pass on this bad boy.
Not down on anything yet for the early slate will advise if that changes.
Late games next……………
Chicago at Seattle (6:40 pm)
Cubs -111 Mariners +103
Two very good pitchers in this tilt…..Lester has a 2.37 ERA and Gonzales in 5-0 (Mariners 6-1 in his starts)….Neither team sports a good pen….Cubs playing better baseball (7-3L10) and Seattle has cooled down (duh?) since their hot start. Lined the game at Cubs -115 so will take another pass. (argh)……Player notes….Edwin has three career DINGERS off Lester (.213 avg) ….4 Cubs have a pair of HR in their last 7 games including Rizzo and Bryant.
Detroit at Philadelphia (7:05 pm)
Phillies -215 Tigers +197
Feels like Phillies or nothing in this spot but the price is way too high for our liking……Norris has been ok in two starts and Nola is not off to a good start (37 hits in 31.2 IP, 7 DONGS) this season but last outing was promising…….We have the game lined at -190…..Player notes ….Hoskins and Castellanos are hot.
St Louis at Washington (7:05 pm)
Nationals -150 Cardinals +138
Definite lean to the Nats in this spot with MAD MAX on the mound……He has not been super (3/6 QS) but has a fine 54K to 5 BB ratio…..Cards send out Mikolas who has been JAG this season and has allowed 8 DONGS whilst pitching to a 6.60 ERA away from home….This is the only universe right now in which we could fade the Cards (baseball gods please forgive us)…..Nats pen is pure TRASH so will pay a bit extra and take Nats F5…..Player notes….Nats hitting 10/25 off MM…..Cards .215 off Mad Max….Ozuna has a pair of DINGERS…..Goldschmidt just 1/18 off Scherzer…..Ozuna is hot….Soto has three BOMBS in the last 7 days.
Cleveland at Miami (7:10 pm)
Indians -129 Marlins +119
The KLUBOT has been disappointing so far…..37 hits and 15 BB (!) in 31 IP and that will get you an ERA around 5.81…..The Marlins (and the ballpark) should provide a good setting for him to get back on track but it’s a bit of a risky proposition…..Particularly when you consider the Marlins go with MEGALOCKS emerging favorite Caleb Smith on the bump…..in 29 IP he has only allowed 17 hits and sports a fine 37-7 K to BB ratio……We initially wanted to break the $10,000 button on our betting app (Cleveland) but now have to take a pass given the SP edge is clearly with Miami.
Cincinnati at New York (7:10 pm)
Mets -178 Reds +164
Tough loss for ML Reds TT over backers last night as they fell a half-run short……it happens…..We like ourselves some Reds but it’s hard to back them today facing DeGOAT even though Jake has struggled a bit this year and his last three starts have been dismal…..Is he hurt? Who knows…..Value is with the Reds but can’t pull the trigger given the Reds’ road woes….Player notes…We are not Johnny DFS but would avoid playing DeGOAT today…..Puig has a couple DONGS off DeGOAT (.176 avg)….Winker is hot and has the platoon advantage today + a crappy Mets pen.
San Diego at Atlanta (7:20 pm)
Braves -150 Padres +139
Gonna roll with Braves F5 again.…..got a push last night and like we said…..If you like the Braves these days do NOT play them full game until that TRASH pen improves…..Fried has pitched well (2.30 ERA, 3 QS) and the Padres will roll with first time starter Cal Quantrill who appears to be a SCRUB based on his minor league numbers…..Braves batters are legit patient could be a tough outing for CQ…..Player notes…..Hosmer on fire…..Reyes and Renfroe hitting well lately…..Albies and Freeman smoking right now.
Baltimore at Chicago (7:40 pm)
White Sox -142 Orioles +131
As noted above…..Orioles are sinking fasssssssst…..Cashner is a GASCAN but has had his moments this season where he didn’t completely suck…..Nova is not to be trusted has given up 15 ER in his last two outings…..Feels like a good spot to take F5 over especially when you consider that the Orioles are hitting .389 (28/72) off Nova and the Sox are batting .311 (28/90) vs the CASH MAN….”5″ is a fair number we will probably play 4.5 in the range of -128…..Player notes….Abreu 6/11 off Cashner….Chris Davis 5 career BOMBS off Nova.
Colorado at Milwaukee (7:40 pm)
Brewers -145 Rockies +134
Hard to ignore the potential of the F5 over with two donkeys taking the mound in a great hitters’ park…..Senzatela is JAG who doesn’t rack up many Ks…..Anderson gives up a lot of walks and sadly will probably only be around for 5 innings or so…..Both teams can mash…..With or without Yelich it’s hard to see a pitchers’ duel…..Prefer the ov 4.5 with extra jooce vs 5….Player notes…..Check status of Yelich….Arenado has FOUR career DONGS off Anderson…..Grandal is 3/3 vs Senzy……Aguilar is on fire for Brew Crew.
Houston at Minnesota (8:10 pm)
Astros -140 Perez +129
Lean to the Houston side in this one but not sure we can take the plunge (lined it at -150)…..McHugh has been ok this season (good Ks) but really inconsistent…..Perez faces a deadly lineup and we have to think that Houston will get their runs…..Astros also have pen edge but the Twins are tough at home, last night notwithstanding. Player notes……Chilly weather not ideal for hitting….then again Houston did just fine last night…..Schoop has good BVP off McHugh and Cruz has a pair of DONGS off of him…..Altuve and Springer have solid BVP vs Perez…..Degenerates may wanna consider Hou TT ov.
Los Angeles at San Francisco (9:45 pm)
Dodgers -137 Giants +126
Hard to ignore the Dodgers at this price…..LAD +37 in run differential whilst the Giants weigh in at (-26)…..LAD SP Ryu has been excellent with a 33-2 (!) K to BB ratio (6 DONGS allowed tho)…..Mad Bum has been ok (35-5 K to BB) but did get massacred by the Yankees last start……Giants lineup is TRASH…..Player notes….Kike has 4 DONGS and is hitting .500 vs Mad Bum (21/42)…..DEEP FREESE and Turner (4 DINGERS) have also hit MB well…..Posey has good BVP.
Toronto at Los Angeles (10:07 pm)
Angels -112 Blue Jays +104
Another coin toss affair and it’s hard to argue against Toronto as our buddy STRO SHOW has been rock solid this season and he is supported by a good pen….Jays should be able to hit Pena but we were hoping for something closer to +120 to grab the Jays……Player notes…..SMOAK MONSTER is 2/2 off Pena with 2 doubles…..Close to the smallest sample possible but we found it funny…..Angels hitting .429 (!) off STRO SHOW and Trout is 6/13.
GL and enjoy the games!