MLB tidbits – Wednesday, May 15
Some quick thoughts on today’s MLB card. A couple of sentences detailing some of the stuff we considered when looking for investment opportunities.
Lines per Pinnacle at time when notes posted.
Hopefully this helps your handicapping. We always post rationale with our picks with the goal of helping people graduate from being betting zombies. Read. Consider. Make a wagering decision.
Forgot the last two days to put stuff in blue. I play everything I say that I like BUT I just put 1-3 usually in blue because a) if you are not playing a low juice book like we are playing too many favorites will eat into your profits. Just being honest b) You need to be really conservative with your bankroll betting baseball and that is really hard for most people to do. Don’t wanna see peeps to get creamed on a bad day b/c they bet too much. c) I’m busy with football and like to do this right away and then get on with the day. Sometimes I don’t decide how to play a game until later.
So there are 5-6 I like in here today based on the analysis. I put what I hope are two good ones in blue. I would just recommend 1-2 plays a day BUT the full card is……..
Twins
Reds F5 TT ov
Nats F5
Texas F5
Braves F5 TT ov
Arizona
Los Angeles at Minnesota (1:10 pm)
Twins -135 Angels +124
Feels like good value to take another shot with the Twins ML as we have it lined over -150…..Odorizzi has been REALLY good this year and has not allowed a single ER in his last 3 starts (20 IP)…..and only 2 DONGS allowed all season….Cahill is worse than just-a-guy (JAG) with an ERA over 6 and 13 DINGERS allowed in 39 IP….Keep an eye on Nelson Cruz who is nursing a wrist injury…..Stud C Garver was also hurt last night…..Twins are 14-8 at home Angels 9-13 on the road…..Player notes…..Twins have zero HR in 65 AB vs Cahill…..Simmons is 5/9 off JO but the Halos have no DINGERS off JO in 53 AB…..LaStella is hot for LA.
Baltimore at New York (3:05 pm) GAME ONE
Yankees -276 Orioles +250
The line is in a range that makes us “not interested”….Happ has been very average this season and has not been able to get deep into games…..Hess is JAG with an ERA of 5.50 and 10 DONGS allowed in 34 IP…..NY has hit 5 HR in 9 AB vs Hess…..Nunez and Mancini have good BVP….Yankees are in a bit of a power outage…..Orioles are generally cold at the plate right now……If you are gonna BRIDGE JUMP on a big fav we would probably not take the Yanks at this price.
Pittsburgh at Arizona (3:40 pm)
Snakes -156 Pirates +144
The Pirates are playing like WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE…..A team that wins games despite being outscored by a LOT…..(-37) run differential….They get Archer back today (off since April 26) but we almost never back a team with a SP that has missed time (even a little bit of time) due to injury…..Even Blake Snell struggled in his first outing back after a brief hiatus….Greinke has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and has racked up 8 QS in a row (!)…..Lean to the SNAKES ML in this spot…….Player notes….Josh Bell is hitting the CRAP out of the ball right now and he double DONGED last night….Snakes have hit 6 BOMBS off Archer in 96 AB…Adam Jones has solid BVP….Buccos hitting just .171 (70 AB) off Zach with just one DINGER.
Toronto at San Francisco (3:45 pm)
Giants -128 Blue Jays +118
The weather looks REALLY gloomy out in San Fran so will not spend a ton of time on this game….Edwin Jackson makes his first appearance of the season for Toronto he was recently acquired from the As…..Something called a Shaun Anderson going for SF….No idea what to do with this game….Player notes…..VLAD JR hit his first two DONGS last night…..Whiny Toronto media members can shut their pie holes for at least a day or two.
Chicago at Cincinnati (6:40 pm)
Reds -126 Cubs +116
Yes, guy. Another chance to make some moolah with your boy Yu Darvish on the mound…..Stat of the year (?)….He has walked 33 batters in 36 IP….Gray has been serviceable for the Reds but does not get deep into games….He has only allowed 2 BOMBS all year but the Cubs can mash….Seems like a good idea to take a piece of Reds F5 over or game F5 over….Two BURGEONING GASCANS pitching in a softball diamond…..Player notes….Reds still not hot with the bats but Suarez hitting well….Bryant hitting well for Cubs….Rizzo still out with back injury.
Milwaukee at Philadelphia (7:05 pm)
Phillies -107 Brewers -102
The GIO GONZALEZ EXPERIENCE is back today but we must admit….He has looked pretty good in each of his three starts…..Arrieta has been consistent for Philly but he gets a nasty Brewers line-up that can punish the best of pitchers….Brewers took it to a previously-hot Eickhoff yesterday….Game feels like a toss-up and the line reflects it….Player notes…..Phillies have only 1 DINGER in 177 AB vs Gio….Segura and Cutch have good BVP…..Cain and Perez have decent BVP for the Crew…..If Braun is back in the line-up again (missed 3G recently) notes that he has 3 HR in 30 AB vs Jake…..Harper banged up his knee on a sliding catch yesterday….May want to wait until the lineups come out if you believe that makes a big difference (he is strrrruggggglinnnggggg).
New York at Washington (7:05 pm)
Nationals -158 Mets +145
This is a big-time SP edge as the Nats get to throw Corbin out on the bump and he has had only one bad start all season whilst compiling nice numbers….39 hits in 50 IP…58-17 K to BB….Font gets another shot for the Mets due to the injury bug hitting the rotation….He doesn’t go deep into games and their pen is unsavory….Not as TRASH as the Nats pen but it’s close….Do we go with Nats -158 ML or F5 -162 ?….Hmmmmmmm….siding with F5 only an extra 4 cents to not have to worry about the clowns coming in after Corbin giving up 14 runs in 2 innings…..Player notes…The Mets have CRAZY GOOD BVP vs Corbin although Corbin is 2/2 in QS facing the Mets this season (3 DONGS allowed)…..PLATOON SPLITS GUY should note that our boy Conforto is a LH batter but has 4 DINGERS in just 14 AB vs Corbin….Nice contrarian play for you DFS dudes out there….amirite?.
Tampa Bay at Miami (7:10 pm)
Rays -174 Marlins +160
Rays go with an opener (Stanek) and you know that means we take a pass on this game….The line looks about right considering it’s TB vs Miami…..Urena will be a welcome downgrade at SP for the Rays who had to deal with the GOAT Caleb Smith yesterday…..Not much to say on this one….Player notes…..Marlins have not DONGED in the last 7 days that seems INCONCEIVABLE…..Meadows should be back at the top of the order today do not overlook him in DFS or player props even in this massive ballpark.
Houston at Detroit (7:10 pm)
Astros -333 Tigers +303
Verlander vs the Tigers. Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. <falls off chair>. Not playing this game…..Maybe VALUE GUY can justify a Tigers play (should the line be a bit lower?….Maybe)….Houston is absolutely CRUSHING SKULLS at the moment and this is strictly an ADULTS-ONLY game to view tonight…..Player notes….The entire Astros team is WHITE HOT…..Rodriguez and Dixon are bats to keep an eye on for Detroit, but not today…..Winds medium strength blowing out to left. RUH ROH.
Baltimore at New York (6:35 pm) GAME TWO
Yankees -230 Orioles +210
You know we love ourselves some German at SP for the Yankees who has been one of the most under-the-radar players in baseball….27 hits in 43 IP….44 to 14 K to BB….2.70 ERA…..Yes, guy….Cashner gets kudos from our AL EAST INSIDERS from graduating from GASCAN STATUS to JAG……He is doing decent work for a bad team and the Os are 5-3 (!) in his starts…..Player notes….Yankees hitting .325 off AC (27/83) but only one DINGER….Yanks acquired K Morales from the As (via the Blue Jays earlier this year).
Colorado at Boston (7:10 pm)
Red Saaaaax -144 Rockies +133
Boston flamed out wikkkkidddd haaaard after hitting some bombs to open the game yesterday….The Rockies took it in extra innings and crept closer to the .500 mark….Marquez has been dealing on the road (1.55 ERA in 4 starts) and Rodriguez has been doing good work for the Red Saaax…..Line feels about right not crazy about fading either team and it’s hard to imagine either offense going bananas even with the talent on hand….Player notes….JDM heating up for Boston……Devers is quietly 3rd in the AL in hitting (!) as we go to press (.331)…..Blackmon has 4 BOMBS L7D and he is one of the best LH hitters in MLB vs lefties.
St Louis at Atlanta (7:20 pm)
Braves -131 Cards +121
Well we were right about the STL bats yesterday but did not think they would go APE SH&T crazy….Soroka has been excellent for the Braves and has not allowed more than 1 ER in any of his 5 starts…..You know we love ourselves some sweet STL action but this is a tough task…especially given that “Walk Machine” Wacha is on the mound…..Like both of these teams a lot….Braves F5 TT over might be worth a stab at 2.5 those bats are flat out nasty and dangerous top to bottom…..Player notes….Braves hitting 15/41 off MW (.366)…..Goldy is on a 10/24 run….Ozuna is just generally great.
Texas at Kansas City (8:15 pm)
Rangers -127 Royals +117
Shelby Miller was WHO WE THOUGHT HE WAS last night (one of the worst pitchers of our generation) but the Royals will have more trouble with Minor as he has been one of the most improved pitchers in baseball….39 hits in 53 IP…..53-17 K to BB and an ERA of 2.68….Royals 25th in OPS vs LHP….Lopez is JAG that has allowed 4+ ER in 5 straight starts….Feels like an order of Tex F5 ML is in order in an orderly fashion….Player notes……Royals bats are pretty hot even Billy Hamilton is getting on base…..Pence has cooled off for Texas.
San Diego at Los Angeles (10:10 pm)
Dodgers -151 Padres +139
Tough game to call…..LAD close to unbeatable at home (18-6) and they just hammered GOAT Paddack yesterday…..They are bit less potent tho vs LHP and Strahm has reeled off 4 str QS….Maeda is not our cup of tea….20 BB in 44 IP…..We have it lined at -150…..Player notes….Machado starting to heat up…..LAD bats have cooled at bit….Joc won’t start vs a LHP….Bellinger DONGED last night.
Enjoy the games and thanks for reading!