MTSU at Army – College Football Predictions
The Game
It’s finally here! Game time, baby.
The Black Knights endured a painful five-win season LY that included a blowout loss to their hated rival in Annapolis. They lost a lot of close games and are hungry to get that taste out of their collective mouths. MTSU is coming off their first losing season since 2011 (!) (4-8) and are also interested in a fresh start. Can they handle the Army triple option and SHOCK the WORLD with a road upset?
The Details
Army -5 MTSU (54.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Army -6
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Army 29.75 MTSU 24.75
The Match-Up:
Army offense vs MTSU defense
The Black Knights are GONNA DO what they’re GONNA DO and attack you mercilessly with the triple option. They can also hurt you with the THROW GAME for big gainers once in a while so you can’t always be 100% focused on stopping the run. They’ll be a new starting QB(s) this year and it’s unclear who will get the starting gig. Both Jabari Laws and Christian Anderson have shown flashes and note that Jemel Jones has also gotten some meaningful reps in camp. Army will be without reliable FB Connor Slomka who graduated but it’s a deep group that replenishes the stockpile year after year. MTSU was a train wreck vs the run LY and allowed an UNSEEMLY 194 YPG (#11 C-USA, #101 FBS). The DL and LB groups are very inexperienced, and have no experience facing the triple option. That’s not ideal. The strength of their defense is clearly in the back-end (again, not ideal) but note that FS Reed Blankenship led the team in tackles in 2018 and missed a chunk of LY due to injury. He’ll be a big factor in this game.
We expect efficient offense from Army in this game and they have the benefit of utilizing more than one QB. MTSU had extra time to get ready for the option but it’s a lot different facing them in a real game vs simulation in practice.
MTSU offense vs Army defense
The Blue Raiders have one of the best players in Conference USA in QB Asher O’Hara and there’s no doubt he can have success vs the Army defense. O’Hara rushed for over 1,000 (!) yards last year whilst tossing 20 TD passes and he has two of his top-three WRs returning for duty. We expect them to spread it around in the THROW GAME and try and exploit their theoretical skill and speed advantage over the Army secondary. The RB unit took a yuuuuuge hit when RBs Michael Pettaway and Amir Rasur decided to opt out of the 2020 campaign. They were talented Power 5 transfers expected to play an important role. Can they cobble together a decent rushing attack? Well they have the dangerous O’Hara and maybe Chaton Mobley can surprise (208, 4.0, 3 TD LY) ? Army’s defense can be had but they are disciplined and don’t make many mistakes. Also note that they are usually very well rested due to the time of possession edge they often have. Army will be without three of their top-four tacklers from LY including their leader LB Cole Christiansen (#1 tackles) but bring back seven returning starters overall.
We expect MTSU to have some success on offense but they’ll need to take advantage of all their chances and put up TDs, and not FGs.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Neither team comes into this game HOT AS HADES….Army dropped seven of their last nine games in 2019 and MTSU lost five of their last seven contests……The Black Knights are 15-20 ATS as home chalk L10Y….MTSU is 18-29 ATS in non-conference play L10Y…..We’ll check in on the weather report in a few days…..Be sure to check the forum for updates from the weather hotties.
Summary
This is a tough ask right off the bat for the Blue Raiders. We don’t anticipate Army having any trouble winning the time of possession battle and controlling the tempo of the game. It’ll come down to how efficient MTSU is when they get inside the red zone. That sounds obvious, but when you play Army, you have to take advantage of your limited possessions. MTSU has the best player on the field (QB) and might have the 2nd best player as well (Blankenship) so that can’t hurt. We expect a 4-10 point win for the Black Knights.
Conclusion
Lean: Army -5
No opinion on the total.
Lean: MTSU team total under 24.5 (projected; waiting for number)
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you need action. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.