College Football Predictions – MTSU Blue Raiders 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 8-6
ATS – 8-6
Heartbreak Hotel.
The Blue Raiders bagged a road win over Marshall around the mid-point of the season and managed to hang on for dear life and earn a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game. A REALLY entertaining match-up with C-USA West division champ UAB did not go their way (L 27-25) and the Blue Raiders had to settle for what could have been. However, it needs to be said. The last losing season for MTSU was back in 2011 (!). How many FBS teams can say that? We will let MEGALOCKS HOME GAMERS do the research and get back to us.
It’s been a long time since the Blue Raiders were not serious contenders in Conference USA. What can we expect in 2019?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #4
Conference USA – #8
MTSU Blue Raiders 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
PRO TIP. It’s never a good thing when you lose your program’s all-time leading passer. It feels like QB Brent Stockstill had been with the program since the 1960s, and sadly, they will have to move on and find a new signal-caller. The starting QB battle is between Asher O’Hara (20 attempts LY) and JC transfer Randall Johnson and the outcome won’t be known until fall camp is completed. Whatever happens, the Blue Raiders will miss their former all-timer.
The Blue Raiders will try and get a stagnant ground game going to help out their new QB. They only rushed for 133 YPG LY (#9 C-USA) and were #11 in the conference in 2017. They should be able to cobble together a decent rushing attack with their 1-2 combo back for duty. Chaton Mobley and Terelle West combined for over 900 yards rushing a season ago and will have to play a larger role in 2019. MTSU loses a lot of guys from their receiving corps but still have legit #1 WR Ty Lee back in the equation (71-883, 12.4, 7 TD LY). The offensive line is a potential problem area as they only return a pair of starters to a front that allowed 42 (!) sacks a season ago (tied for last C-USA).
It seems reasonable to expect a decline in scoring output this year (28.0 PPG). The passing game will likely struggle with consistency and it’s unclear whether or not the offensive line will be able to support a stronger rushing attack. Stay tuned.
DEFENSE
MTSU had one of the best defenses in the conference the past two seasons under DC Scott Shafer and they will need to continue their strong play to give the team a shot at being a contender. The LB group looks solid even with the departure of star Darius Harris. Khalil Brooks knows how to fill up the stat sheet (14.5 TFL, 6 PBU, 14 QBH LY) and DQ Thomas has a similar ability (6 sacks, 6 QBH LY). The secondary boasts one of the best safety combos around including leading tackler Reed Blankenship (1st Team C-USA) but need to find new starting CBs. The Blue Raiders have done a good job in the sack department the past two years (35, 32) and should be able to keep opposing QBs uncomfortable once again this year.
This still appears to be one of the stronger defenses in the conference and they will give the Blue Raiders a fighting chance in every C-USA match-up.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Meh. They will certainly miss P Matt Bonadies (2nd Team C-USA) and PK Crews Holt was just 1/7 on three-pointers from 40+ yards LY. Ty Lee is an efficient return man.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Yikes. The Blue Raiders have road trips to Michigan and Iowa in non-conference play, and the home game with Duke is a tough test. The season will come down to a four-week stretch in October when they play their three primary divisional rivals (Marshall, at Florida Atlantic, FIU). If they can hang around into November the closing stretch is very favorable (Rice, ODU, at WKU).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Iowa (September 28)
The Blue Raiders have been a much better team ATS in C-USA action and Iowa City is a nasty road venue. Conference play is on deck (Marshall).
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 +130
Under 5.5 -150
MEGALOCKS says:
That feels like the right number. Having said that, it’s hard to imagine these guys not finding their way into another bowl game. Pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MTSU’s last conference title came back in 2006 when they took down the Sun Belt.
The Blue Raiders are 4-8 all-time in bowl games (2-6 FBS versions). It’s hard to forget the 1956 Refrigerator Bowl in which MTSU fell to Sam Houston St by a score of 27-13. There was a CHILL in the air that day and the Sam Houston St QB was COOL under pressure.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
It’s going to be tough to repeat as C-USA East Division champs. The defense will be solid but we have obvious concerns about the offense. They will almost certainly get off to a slow start given their out-of-conference slate, but you never know what can happen if they pull an upset or two like they did last season (Florida Atlantic, at Marshall).
MTSU has been a 50/50 proposition from an ATS perspective over the past ten years (62-63-3) but have been much stronger in conference play (55%) than in non-conference action (41%). We’ll take a negative stance on their overall point-spread covering prospects and be especially cautious early in the year.
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