College Football Predictions – MTSU Blue Raiders 2020 College Football Preview
August 21, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 6-6
The Blue Raiders had a rough go of it last year and posted their first losing record since 2011 (!). The picked up a couple of decent wins along the way (Marshall, FIU) and lost a number of close games. The fell to conference foes North Texas, Rice, and Western Kentucky by a combined 11 points.
MTSU will try and shrug that nasty taste out of their mouths and have a more productive 2020. Let’s check in and see what the roster looks like.
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #6
Conference USA – #9
MTSU Blue Raiders 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Blue Raiders moved on from their legendary QB Brent Stockstill last season and managed to have a decent go of it on offense. The rushing offense was a bit better (#3 C-USA), the passing game understandably got a bit worse (#6), but the stats overall were pretty comparable to what they achieved in the previous two campaigns. QB Asher O’Hara was THE offense last year and had a fine year. O’Hara threw for over 2,600 yards and 20 TDs whilst rushing for over 1,000 (!!) yards and 9 TDs. He’s a budding STAR. There wasn’t a single RB on the roster LY that bagged more than 300Y rushing, and they’ll need to remedy that situation if they want O’Hara to maintain long-term health. It looks like a committee approach will be the move this year, but maybe one of their Power 5 transfers will be a HOME RUN. <Update Aug 31. A pair of RB transfers have opted out including projected starter M Pettaway>. MTSU likes to spread the ball around in the THROW GAME and note that four of their top five WRs are back in the mix. Four starters are back up front including a pair of solid seniors (Robert Jones, Will Gilchrist).
We look for an improved performance on this side of the ball and there is some nice upside if they can find a #1 RB and one of their WRs develops into a home run hitter.
DEFENSE
The Blue Raiders were a HOT MESS last year and couldn’t do much of anything to stop their opponents. They were #11 in the conference vs the run, #14 vs the pass, and allowed an impossible 459 YPG (#114 FBS). PENETRATION? Nope. They only bagged 11 (!) sacks all year, and the only team more pathetic in that regard was Akron (10). It’s unclear how much improvement we can reasonably expect this year given that only three starters are back, and the talent in the cupboard appears to be sparse. The good news is that they bring back star safety Reed Blankenship who is one of the best defensive players in the conference, and recall that he led the team in tackles in 2018. Blankenship missed a good chunk of LY due to injury. The back seven has a lot of unknowns but LB DQ Thomas is a nice piece to build around (#2 tackles LY, 2 sacks, 12 TFL).
TROUBLE AHOY! This will likely be another long year for the Blue Raiders’ defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game looks to be in decent shape. PK Crews Holt is coming off another solid year (11/14 FG LY) and Kyle Ulbrich is back to handle the punting duties. MTSU was in the bottom-ten in the FBS in both KR and PR LY.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – 10 games are booked as we type this at MEGALOCKS HQ. The suspect run defense gets a yuuuuge challenge in the opener when they take on Army. In a creative and interesting plandemic scheduling quirk, the Blue Raiders will play a home and home “series” with Troy. They avoid UAB and Louisiana Tech in crossover action.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Army (September 5th)
Don’t think we’ll be on the road doggie in this match-up. Army’s ground attack is going to carve their defense up and the Black Knights might hold the ball for 59 minutes. Just kidding. Not really.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
‘Blue Raiders’ dates back to a 1934 contest to choose the team nickname. A football player came up with the name and won a cool FIVE BEANS.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
MTSU has one of the best QBs in the conference at the controls and that’s a good place to start. The offense might be a bit better this year but the defense is going to make it an extremely difficult ask to compete for a division crown. Our best guess is that they pull an upset along the way and finish with a mark around .500.
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