MTSU Blue Raiders 2022 College Football Preview
June 25, 2022
2021 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 7-5-1
The Blue Raiders exceeded our expectations last year and bagged their first winning season since 2018. MTSU could’ve packed it in after winning just a pair of games in the first half but they kept at it and won four games in the back half of the campaign to get to six wins. The season ended on a fine note when they SHOCKED the WORLD by beating Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl as double-digit underdogs.
MTSU Blue Raiders 2022 Outlook
OFFENSE
MTSU didn’t exactly set the world on fire LY (#96 FBS total offense) and were particularly pathetic on the ground (124 YPG, #100). 3rd downs? Yikes. They converted just 31.5% of the time (#125). There’s great news to report as senior QB Chase Cunningham is back for one more season and he was really good LY before getting injured (63%, 16-3 TD to INT). Backup QB Nicholas Vattiato showed some MOXIE and led them to the Bahamas Bowl victory. FUN FACT. Their top-four WRs all booked between 42 and 45 receptions and 466 and 523 yards LY, so losing the “top-two” shouldn’t hurt that much. The RB room still looks like a BARREN WASTELAND on paper so it’ll be interesting to see if they can get something going with the run game. They return just one starter up front and will need some JC transfers to come up yuuuge.
DEFENSE
The Blue Raiders allowed the fewest PPG (25.7, #57 FBS) since 2017, booked 32 sacks (#5 C-USA) and tallied a whopping 32 takeaways LY (#2 FBS, Cincinnati). Things look a bit bleak heading into this season as they’ll be without their top-four tacklers including the ageless Reed Blankenship who was one of the best defenders in the history of the program. The back seven is inexperienced and looks a bit sketchy but the DL returns all four starters including star DE Jordan Ferguson who racked up 9 sacks and 14 QBH in 2021. It’s unfair to ask them to come up with anything close to 32 takeaways again and we expect a drop in most of the key defensive metrics.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look really good. All of the key pieces return including PK Zeke Rankin (10/14 FG, 44/45 XP LY) and PR Jaylin Lane who made a HOUSE CALL in 2021.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – MTSU draws all the BIG BOYS in the conference and have a pair of nasty road tests in non-conference play (Colorado St, Miami).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – September 3rd – at James Madison
This will be the FBS debut for the DUKES and note that they were 63-8 at home L10Y in FCS play.
Season Win Total
per BetOnline June 25
Over 7.5 -125
Under 7.5 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Under
They’ve got a tough road schedule and a defense that needs retooling. Eight wins seems like the best-case scenario.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Rick Stockstill enters his 17th (!) season in Murfreesboro and he’s as close to a 50-50 proposition as you will find. Rick is 101-98 SU (50.8%) and 98-95-4 ATS (50.8%) with the Blue Raiders.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
This looks like a mid-pack Conference USA squad that’ll need some breaks to challenge for the conference title. In the nine full seasons over the past ten years they’ve finished with six to eight wins and that feels like the range they’ll fall into again.
Want more MTSU Football ?
WEBSITE
https://goblueraiders.com/sports/football
FORUM
https://middletennessee.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-raider-roundup.6/
NEWS
http://www.dnj.com/blue-raiders/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2393/middle-tennessee-blue-raiders