Music City Bowl – Purdue vs Auburn
The Game
Big Ten vs SEC, baby!
Purdue started out the campaign with three close losses by a combined eight (!) points and then rattled off a 6-3 stretch to finish at .500 for the regular season. The best news was probably the realization that HC Jeff Brohm was NOT leaving and would be staying in West Lafayette for the foreseeable future. The Tigers had a disappointing year that included five (!) losses but keep in mind that they played a really tough schedule. They haven’t been the same since getting smacked by UCF in last year’s Peach Bowl but MAYBE this is the spot they turn the momentum around.
The Details
Auburn -3 Purdue (55.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Auburn -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Auburn 29.25 Purdue 26.25
The Match-Up:
Auburn offense vs Purdue defense
The Tigers’ offense has been struggling all season and ONE stat shines a light on everything. Auburn is dead LAST in the SEC in plays of 20+ yards. Last season they were #3. The QB play has been inconsistent. The OL has been sketchy. They just don’t have the typical “Auburn” playmakers at RB and WR. QB Jarrett Stidham has only tossed 13 TDs in 348 attempts (5 INT) and the top two RBs (Whitlow, Martin) average just 5.4 and 4.3 YPC respectively. #1 WR Ryan Davis is averaging a paltry 8.2 (!) yards per catch. The good news? Purdue’s D has been soft this season (#103 overall) and will provide ample opportunity for the Auburn offense to move the ball. The Tigers will have to find a way to be better on 3rd down (#102 FBS) because Purdue has been pretty good in that regard in 2018 (#27 FBS). The implied team total of 29.25 seems about right to us. It’s hard to imagine the Auburn offense going nuts in this contest.
Purdue offense vs Auburn defense
QB David Blough has had a fine campaign so far statistically (3,521, 25-8 TD to INT) and certainly meets the EYE TEST in terms of accuracy and leadership. AND Auburn better be ready for some deep shots because Blough can be devastating when MATRICULATING down the field on long pass attempts. WR/Slash Rondale Moore is a threat to take it the distance every time he touches the ball (1,164, 12 TD) and overall the Boilermakers have a deep WR and TE group. The 1-2 punch at RB (DJ Knox, Markell Jones) has combined for over 1,300 yards and 13 TDs but will be facing a really good Auburn front-seven (#40 FBS rushing D) that can stuff the run and also get impressive PENETRATION (#3 SEC sacks and #3 TFL). We expect to see Purdue hit a small handful of big plays but struggle to move the ball consistently from drive to drive.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Both teams have fairly impressive NOTCHES IN THE BELT….Purdue destroyed Ohio St 49-20 and just might have kept them out of the College Football Playoff (?) whilst Auburn can boast victories over Washington and Texas A&M….Auburn HC Gus Malzahn is 1-4 SU in bowl games with the only victory coming over Memphis in the memorable 2015 Birmingham Bowl.
Summary
This is a tough game to get a handle upon. Purdue has the much better offense but Auburn boasts the stronger defense. We would like to think that Auburn should be plenty motivated to do some damage BUT it’s hard to trust your pal Gus Malzahn in bowl games. Slight lean to the dog but we worry about the SHOCK AND AWE potential of the Auburn stop unit vs the Boilers’ offense.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Side: Slight lean to Purdue.
Total: Slight lean to the under.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.