College Football Predictions – Navy Midshipmen 2020 College Football Preview
August 22, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 11-2
ATS – 10-3
Yes, guy.
Navy bounced back off a rare losing season and put together one heck of a campaign. They bagged 11 (!) wins and their two losses were more than understandable (at Memphis, at Notre Dame). They finished on a strong note with a beatdown of Army (W 31-7) and a win over Kansas St in the Liberty Bowl (W 20-17).
Can they contend for an AAC title in 2020? Let’s find out.
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
American Athletic Conference – #5
<Note. No divisions this year. One 11-team conference.>
Navy Midshipmen 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
Navy has one of the biggest holes in all of college football to fill in 2020. QB Malcolm Perry was an absolute wizard who set the FBS record for rushing yards by a QB (2,017, 6.8) whilst bagging an impossible 23 TDs. Perry made the Navy offense essentially impossible to defend and the MIDDIES finished the campaign ranked #1 in the FBS in rushing offense (361), #12 in scoring offense (37.2) and #19 in total offense (456). Sophomore Perry Olsen got a bit of work LY but our DEEP NAVY INSIDERS tell us that Dalen Morris has the inside track on the starting gig.
Olsen has some nice weapons to work with and that should help his transition. FB Jamale Carothers has a legit shot to crack the 1,000-yard barrier and they also return their #2 and #3 non-QB rushing leaders from a season ago (Nelson Smith, C.J. Williams). One of the keys to making this offense work well is the ability to MATRICULATE down the field in the passing game once in a while. Perry had a great passing year in context of the triple option offense LY (56%, 12.6/attempt, 7-3 TD to INT) and it’s good to know that they return their top-3 receivers from last season including #1 WR Mychal Cooper who averaged 21 yards per grab. Only two starters return on the offensive line and they will miss veteran center Ford Higgins.
There’s no way Navy won’t take a step back after losing a superstar QB. We’ll call for a PPG mark close to what the 2017 team accomplished (30.5).
<update Aug 31 – Depth getting thin at SB due to opt-outs and injuries>
DEFENSE
Navy’s defense did a fine job LY leading the AAC in total defense (!) (314Y) and finishing #2 in scoring defense (22.3). The offense helped them out by staying on the field (#8 FBS time of possession) but they still deserve credit for doing their part. One notable factoid is that Navy TRIPLED their sack total from 10 to 30 last season under the tutelage of new DC Brian Newberry.
What about this season? Well, they lost a few key players on defense (graduation, transfer portal) but still have enough good players to build around. Diego Fagot is one of the best linebackers in the entire conference as he led the team in tackles by a wide margin LY (100) and was #2 on the team in sacks (5.5). They boast a solid safety tandem in Kevin Brennan and Evan Fochtman who both finished in the top-five in tackles LY, and they have some talent up front, even after the graduation of NG Jackson Pittman.
It seems reasonable to expect the defense to take a step backwards in 2020, but they still have the talent to finish in the top half of most AAC statistical categories.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Navy struck GOLD with freshman PK Bijan Nichols as he made 12/17 FG attempts LY including 8/10 from inside 40 yards. Nichols was also good on 61/62 XP attempts. They’ll need to work in a new punter and the return game is not typically a team strength.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – 11 games are booked so far. There’s a REALLY interesting match-up to start the campaign when they take on BYU. They miss UCF and Cincinnati (!).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – BYU (September 7th)
Tough opponent to ROCK AND ROLL against in the opener, particularly when you are lining up with a new QB. Not an optimal spot for the home team.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
It’s worth mentioning the amazing Malcolm Perry once again. Not only does he hold the all-time rushing record in a season by a QB (2,017; Jordan Lynch, 1,920) but his 2019 rushing total ranks #30 on the all-time list for ALL players. Perry rushed for 100+ yards in each of his last ten games including an impossible 304 vs Army.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
Navy needs outstanding QB play to contend for a conference title in a tough AAC conference and it’s unclear if they’ll be able to get that in 2020. They’re very inexperienced at that pivotal position but do have a fine assortment of other weapons. The defense should be good enough to keep them in most games and you know they’ll give 110% every week. Hard to pick them to get to the AAC Championship Game but you KNOW we’ll be cheering for them to do just that.
Go Navy!
Want more Navy football?
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https://navysports.com/sports/football
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NEWS
http://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/navy_sports/
https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2426/navy-midshipmen
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