Navy Midshipmen 2021 College Football Preview
Created August 1, 2021
Record – 3-7
ATS – 4-6
Dive! Dive! Dive! Glug….glug…..glug.
Things didn’t look too bad after the first five games when the MIDDIES opened with three wins. They were BLOWN TO BITS in the other two contests losing by a combined mark of 95-10 to BYU and Air Force, but there was still hope. Things then fell apart BIGGGLY and they lost their final five games in a row to end the 2020 casedemic season with a thud.
Navy Midshipmen 2021 Outlook
The Navy rushing attack was a shell of its former self LY as they averaged a piddly 178 YPG on the ground after averaging 325 YPG (!) over the previous five campaigns. It’s imperative to get rushing production out of the QB position and it’s still a complete unknown in terms of what Navy has at the QB position. Think about what ARMY has at QB and you start to realize what trouble they could be in, yo. Xavier Arline rushed for 169Y in their final 2G LY so probably has the upper hand heading into fall camp. The RB room needs to be reloaded due to the departure of their top-two (Smith, Carothers) who combined for over 1,000Y and 10 TD in 2020. The THROW GAME is an afterthought but note that WRs Mychal Cooper and Mark Walker were both productive LY. The OL looks inexperienced, even by Navy standards. It’s hard to get too excited thinking about this offense, particularly when you remember that they scored just 13 combined points in their final 3G LY.
The offense didn’t stay on the field as per usual and the defense suffered. They allowed 30 PPG and a whopping 205 YPG on the ground (#100 FBS). They booked just six sacks in 10G. We expect improvement on this side of the football given the return of the top-9 tacklers including star LB Diego Fagot (3 sacks, 11 TFL, 100 tackles in 2019). Also note that they played much better down the stretch LY and held Memphis to 10, Tulsa to 19, and Army to 15. The LB group is the strength of the D and Fagot is supported by two solid players in Tama Tuitele and John Marshall. They’ll probably still struggle vs the pass when you consider that they play in a conference with several excellent passers.
Navy has finished #100 or worse in Phil Steele’s special teams rating in each of the last four seasons and this could be #5. The kicking game was mediocre LY and they always struggle to find SPICE at KR and PR.
Overall – RUH ROH. They have a nasty out-of-conference games (Marshall, Air Force, Irish, Army) and draw both UCF and Cincinnati in AAC play.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing overly-spooky is noted.
Season Win Total
per 5Dimes August 1
Over 3.5 -120
Under 3.5 +100
Yikes. It’s hard to find more than a small handful of potential wins. We’ll shop around and try and find a “4”.
Navy has an impressive 41-13 record at home the L10Y despite having three losing seasons over that time horizon.
After an excellent run of six consecutive winning seasons the Midshipmen have had a pair of STINKERS (3-10, 3-7) within the last three years. They need excellent play from the QB position and just haven’t gotten it recently. The schedule is NASTY and it’s hard to see them gaining bowl eligibility. Then again, they have surprised us before!
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